That's difficult to answer because there are a lot of factors. injuries of course have played their part massively and we have had half a squad for over half the season. That is not an excuse however because the players' who were ojut there were capable of getting results in games and failed to do it. The Edwards side show at the start of the season probably created a dip in morale, as it did seem he had begun to knit a unity of the squad and although some of the football towards the end of his eleven game reign was poor, it's not as though we were losing every game. There was more than enough games to turn it around. We've taken four (should of been six) points off th runaway leaders Burnley but failed to beat the worst side in the division (QPR) home and away, losing both times. Millwall battered us home and away as did Swansea. We have been inconsistent all season, with our longest run of wins being three, and that was just before the WC break. Since then, we have totally fallen off the playoff radar. Be in the multiple (as per usual) manager roundabout, player confidence, owner incompetance or just having players not motivated or poorly coached, we are where we are. It's pretty obvious that we would have to match our form at the tail end of the 98/99 season to even have a sniff of the playoffs now. Five points doesn't seem a lot to make up, but that means back-to -back wins. Something we have found almost impossible to do, with such indifferent performances.
The idea that "it's over" is nonsense. The bookies, as good a guide as any, have us around 4/1 to finish in the top six - unlikely but possible. Let's say it'll take 74 points to finish sixth (based on a rough PPG calculation). Home form is going to be massive, but it shouldn't be underestimated how many 'easier' home games we have left to play. We basically have to take 13 or 15 points from remaining games v Wigan, Huddersfield, Bristol City, Cardiff and Stoke - five bottom-half teams, with the two worst teams in the league coming up soon, which suits us. If we can take maximum points at VR, we will probably need one or two statement away wins (ideally at Luton to take points off them). If we drop points at home, the pressure to win more away games increases (and, clearly, our chances probably disappear completely). I don't think it'll happen, they'll probably tease us until the last two or three weeks before ending meekly, but there were signs of life last night and Wilder is a manager with a history of getting his teams on a roll.
It's not impossible, it is very unlikely. If we have a 25% chance of finishing top 6, ignoring bookies margin, and then a 25% of winning the POs, we have about a 6% chance of promotion. We'd need an excellent run, before and into the POs.
It's not mathematically over, sure, but it takes a big old leap of faith to even get close to thinking it's doable. We're well into the 'needing snookers' phase now. I suppose the only positive I can find at this point is that we genuinely have nothing to lose by just taking it game by game and seeing how the games outside of our control land. But if the teams above us broadly carry on as they have done for the 80% of the season already completed we're left with needing a run of wins that would stand out for a title winning team, let alone one that's limped along all season like we have.
I remember in 2015 the promotion team had a number of dodgy results against the other contenders, but the thing that year was that they were very consistent in beating the lower teams time and again. It was that consistency that got us promoted and it’s what the current team is a mile away from having. I believe it’s down to not having the right positive mindset. Even last night we saw it at 2-0 when we didn’t press for a third. If Birmingham had scored with 20 minutes to go there would have been a right panic in our team.
Yep, fair, I just don't think it's impossible Wilder manages to get those standards out of the team for a short run of games.
It's all maffs innit. Every game we don't win that small % gets smaller. We won last night but our % chances are still smaller than they were a week ago, pre QPR. It's difficult to see where table-topping form will suddenly come from.
I think we'll need to win all of our remaining games to sneak in to the play-offs. Encouraging as last night was, that ain't gonna happen
In the unlikely event of our making the playoffs, we'd be in a run of form that would give us a much better than 25% chance of getting promoted.
Definitely won't need to win them all - 6 wins from 9 would almost certainly get us close, providing we got a draw from the other three. Wigan (H) - W Luton (A) - L Huddersfield (H) - W Coventry (A) - L Bristol City (H) - W Cardiff (H) - W Hull (A) - D Sunderland (A) - L Stoke (H) - W This somehwat pessimistic view of results sees us land on 70. An unexpected win away where I've got the three losses would probably do it. Worth noting that despite their high positions in the table, L*ton and Sunderland are actually two of the worse home teams in the league - winning 12 from 35 games between them. We probably won't do it mostly due to being crap, but with such "nice" home fixtures remaining, we'll probably come within 3 points. Suspect keeping Bilic a week too long will be what stops us. Likewise that defeat at QPR is hugely damaging, players need to make up for it at one of the tougher away games now.
I don't want to bring the mood down but I just can't see the teams above us dropping the points that would allow us to overtake them - I think we need to win at least 7 of the remaining games to have a chance. But maths isn't my specialist subject so I may well have got it hopelessly wrong
We actually had a plan and some form of attacking play in transition which was lovely to see. A midfield three is the way forward, we recovered the ball much quicker and by some miracle Keinan actually made it stick in parts and with Joao closer to him he was able to move it on quicker. The team simply has to move forward with this shape, it brings the best out of most our players. Sarr just has to miss out, he can be the right wing back when we’re chasing a game maybe. Choudhury now provides a weird problem, Bacuna done a great job of just passing it with minimal touches, he’s never going to be as good as Choudhury at recovering it but ultimately in an division this pony do we actually need a player who’s solely great at cleaning up? It’s a weird thought, however I think he deserves a chance to come back in and be in a three to see if he is the problem or not. Bit worried about the ease of the passes behind one of the two wide centre backs, yet we still kept a clean sheet DESPITE Bachmann’s best efforts to throw it away.
I agree. 7 wins minimum (or equivalent) in order to get around 75 points. It's going to be around that figure, and even then that will probably only get you 6th place. I can make a case for winning ALL our remaining home games (5), but we would still require two further wins from the away games. Not impossible, but highly improbable. All last night's result did was kick the can of hope down the road a little. Having said that, we should win on Saturday to keep things bubbling along, then we have an international break so Wilder can work with the team building up to the Luton fixture. Only if we win the next two, will be I start to believe we might be able to make up the ground.
The biggest thing is that's out of our hands. Here's the games involving the teams immediately around or above us. We need loads of draws in these games...
Given the games played we are effectively 11th with 9 games to play. We need to win maybe 2 more than those in the top 6 do just to catch up. So for example if unexpectedly we won 6 and drew 3 of the last 9 we'd finish on 75 points, assuming Mboro are safe, the following teams would need to do something like the following to stay above us; Luton W4 D4 L2 Millwall W4 D4 L1 Blackburn W5 D3 L2 Norwich W6 D3 L1 WBA W6 D4 L0 A point less if they had better GD. We'd need to finish above 3 of those, most likely the bottom 3. Blackburn would be the target though there's no reason that we are about to go on a better run the NC or WBA....
Not quite - if we do get into the playoffs, we will be the form team so our chances of winning will be higher.
It doesn't work like that. The 3rd placed team usually goes up and of course has the advantage of playing away first, resting players etc. Our chances would be less than 25% in reality but hopefully good form could compensate for that to some degree.
That's the thing though isn't it. I've gone into every game this season expecting nothing less than a win but the useless ••••ers have let me down time and time again. They've sucked the optimism out of me
Agree, it was a bang average performance against a very poor side. BCFC missed two absolute sitters at the start of the 2nd half, that against a good side would be costly. We are still a million miles away from being a challenging championship side.
Quite an enjoyable evening. Bar the 10 mins after half time when we were a complete mess I thought we looked in control The positives - Obviously scoring 3 goals and not conceding. A plan. Getting Pedro closer to Davis. Davis has quite rightly had some stick for his performances but quite often he is receiving the ball with no yellow shirts near him. That was different last night with Pedro and Kone being available. Kone, gives us so much more energy and created the third goal. Playing somebody like that frees up Louza a lot more. Bacuna, he had a decent game. Ngakia's shot and King Ken's turn, both in the first half The negatives - We have probably left it to late to get in the play offs. Why was Asprilla not brought on earlier. Mins 45-55, what on earth was going on. The lad from Benfica not getting any game time. FryDays, I've not been in that chip shop for years but didn't have time for food before the game so bought 2 fishcakes and a portion of chips on the way home. £9 for a pretty small portion of chips and two almost cold fishcakes. Not going there again
Luton 60 - Bristol City W (H), Sunderland D (A), Watford W (H), Millwall D (A), Blackpool W (H), Rotherham W (A), Reading W (A), Boro L (H), Blackburn D (A), Hull W (H) - 81 - They are long gone. Millwall 60 - Huddersfield (H) W, West Brom (A) D, Luton (H) D, Hull (A) D, PNE (H) D, Birmingham (H) W, Wigan (A) W, Blackpool (A) W, Blackburn W (H) - 79 - they too are gone Blackburn 58 - Reading (H) W, Brum (A) D, Norwich (H) D, Huddersfield (A) W, Hull (H) W, Coventry (H) D, PNE (A) D, Burnley (H) L, Luton (H) D, Millwall (A) L - 72 give or take Norwich 55 - Huddersfield (H) W, Stoke (A) D, Shef U (H) D, Blackburn (A) D, Rotherham (H) W, Boro (A) L, QPR (A) W, Swansea (H) W, WBA (A) D, Blackpool (H) W - 74 and thought I'd been somewhat harsh on them here WBA 54 - Cardiff (A) D, Millwall (H) D, Rotherham (A) W, QPR (H) W, Stoke (A) D, Blackpool (A) W, Sunderland (H) W, Shef U (A) L, Norwich (H) D, Swansea (A) W - 73 I take back earlier statement - we'll need 75 - i.e 7 wins - and just can't see that with those away fixtures and how badly we're playing on the most part.
There no doubt be wobbles from teams above and around. Adding to that presently can't see our form taking a miraculous turnaround. Maybe a solid win against Wigan will change my mind but then it's the game everyone wants. My opinion Slab should of gone three weeks before he did, it may have given Wilder a slime chance then.
We'll lose to Wigan - then we can all put away our pencils and just look forward to a pleasant Saturday lunchtime trip to Bedfordshire
'Usually' only in the sense that there is somewhat more chance than 4th and 5th, but not in the sense of more often than not. This is from last year and goes back ten years (sorry about crappy formatting). FINAL POSITION PROMOTIONS 3 4 4 3 5 3 6 0 Anyway, it's irrelevant to us.
