Well yes, there's still a risk. It's just an extremely small risk. Saying you feel "Southampton have a chance of picking up 9 or 10 points from their 4 games" is meaningless unless you acknowledge that chance is tiny.
Of the bottom three, only Southampton can catch us on the basis that Stoke’s goal difference is too poor to make up.
I think this is a psychological thing amongst pessimists to say we could still go down. I am one of these people I might add! I think you just need to sit down and think about it logically though before you realise the chance is tiny though. I always fear the worst, but really once you think about it using a bit of logic and common sense we are already fine. Stoke’s result today cements that even more.
This is all I'm saying. What is the likelihood of Southampton going on a good run? I personally think it's quite high. Stoke have gone, West Brom have gone, so we're only talking about the final place. Then I look at all the other sides, and their ability to overtake 38 points. Of course if we do not lose to Newcastle, then it's all academic, even the small risk would be gone. But just imagine Southampton win their game in hand, which is Bournemouth at home. They will be on 32 points, with three to play, and just 6 points behind us. I would be quite nervous if that happens.
So, only Soton can catch us now and need 3 wins out of 4 if we don't get another point; last game is Man C. Playing Swansea so that should Soton win that it means Swansea have to get 5 points from 4 which include Man C away and Chelsea home. This would also mean Bournemouth having to get something away at Burnley as the scenario above means Saints and Swansea winning Bournemouth's other two games.
We stayed up easily first time round. Then meekly last season. This time limply. Not exactly an upward curve
But other than the fact they desperately need to go on a good run, what actually makes you think the chances of it happening are 'quite high'? They've been playing teams with little or nothing to play for for weeks and still losing.
If we get the expected defeats at Spurs and United, then we would have to beat Newcastle in order to achieve a 1 point improvement on last season. The likelihood for me, is that we'll not beat last season's total. It's a steady decline which will be a huge disappointment to the owner. Considering the increased funding, it has to feel like money wasted. Personally I think we've got away with it over the past 3 seasons. The way we have ended each campaign, and for large parts of each season, we've had long relegation runs. Only surviving by having fantastic starts. These fantastic starts are mainly down to the new manager bounce, and once that levels out, we go on a freefall run of form. This summer, there has to be a real rethink, or else we will probably get relegated next season. This terrible defence cannot be allowed to continue as it is and we cannot get away with a strikers that cannot score goals. We've done extremely well to survive, but this summer is the time to really get our house in order and to take advantage of a pretty weak Premier league (outside of the top 6).
There's nothing scientific. It's just a gut feel I have. They have a good side on paper. They have been competitive in the last few games. I've actually watched them live in 3 of their last 4 games. They are playing well, without reward. They have a new manager, and I just think they are the side, if any, that are best placed to surprise everyone (apart from me of course )
Their last four games have been extremely tough and they've competed well in all of them. Arsenal (a) 2-3, Chelsea (h ) 2-3, Leicester (a) 0-0, and are playing well against Chelsea in the semi-final, currently losing 0-2. They are now playing as a team and if they continue playing at their current level they are likely to win games and pick up points.
But it’s not just a question of improved performances translating into points, which in itself is hard enough and hasn’t happened yet: they have to get enough points to overtake us AND all of the teams below us have to do so as well AND we have to pick up no more points. The chances are very, very, very, very slim indeed. Fair play to be concerned about Southampton if you are a Swansea fan, or perhaps a Huddersfield fan or Hammer. I’m not at all concerned for us - and, like Stuboy - I am one of life’s natural pessimists.
Even if it was mathematically impossible someone would bring up that old article, about the dodgy bank letter, and claim we are about to be deducted points. When the fixtures for next season are released you'll all breathe a sigh of relief.
Our performances against everyone bar Liverpool weren't bad. Deserved a win against Bournemouth and Burnley imo and I consider myself fairly level headed. Could have got draws against Arsenal and Huddersfield. What I'm trying to say is whilst I agree it's unlikely we'll win in next two, just because Stoke and Southampton have improved does not mean they'll win all theirs - I mean just look at the way Saints collapsed vs Chelsea a team who really don't care. I think we'll get another win or draw and whilst we may not equal qsf season it's a season that promised more than it delivered due to mitigating circumstances (injuries for second season in a row). Work to do in summer
Swansea will still be 5 points behind and have to play Southampton so someone will lose points there .. Swansea v Southampton is the game in hand for both sides . Chelsea next for the Swans.
Agree with the above. I'd have liked to have thought we'd be in a more established position but then playing devils advocate I look at the 3 teams going down and it shows how fragile an established position can be. Palace also struggling again as well as Swansea. Sunderland going down. Basically most Championship clubs could probably now compete with 6th down
Its clear. It was very unlikely we could get sucked into this. It's now close to impossible but still technically possible. The game between Swansea and Soton will be massive. Soton win that and its going to be close between those 2.
Swansea's GD taking a shellacking. As a footnote, Man C achieved over 1000 passes in a game, a first for PL.
We’re going to beat Man Utd anyway on the last day. They play away at West Ham then us 3 days later, followed by the FA Cup Final 6 days after us. I fully expect them to rest players against us, play a few fringe players and give players like Pogba 60mins before being subbed.
So what if Southapton win, Swansea could still pick up the points they need to catch us from their other games All of which is possible if we don't get any more points, unlikely yes, but not impossible
I can’t believe your still talking about this! This Southampton team has only won 5 games all season and you think there is a chance they will win the last four?!? Yes we are not mathematically safe, but for us to go down would be akin to Leicester winning the title.
Not really. Leicester were 5000-1 to win the Premier League and we are 250-1 to get relegated. I've even seen one bookmaker offering 150-1, so quite a big elaboration from you there. Incidentally, Bournemouth are just +1 goal better than us on the same points, yet the bookies have them a 500-1 to get relegated. So they are twice as unlikely to go down than us, after virtually an identical record. This is because our recent run has been so bad.
Or perhaps some posters on this forum have taken GOBE’s advice and actually lumped money on this absurd (im)possibility. We’re not even being discussed in any of the relegation debates I have seen. We weren’t mentioned in last Saturday’s Times “Fink Tank”. 5Live today talked of Huddersfield, West Ham, Palarse and Swansea, as well as the existing bottom three - strong consensus was that the existing bottom 3 would stay there although Swansea had done themselves no favours by being tonked by Citeh. Has anyone looked on the Bournemouth forum? Do any of their fans really think they are still “at risk”?
The only reason we can be considered "at risk" is because of our current form and the expected scramble for good results from teams below, which often happens. We're not being talked about it, because we've been sitting just 2 or 3 points above the water margin all season. If we do get caught, we'll only be talked about it on the final day.....and it will "wow....how the hell are Watford in there". To make it clear, I do not think we'll go down, but I do recognise the risk and I'm not complacent about it.
Well, maybe. I think the injuries must have been (and still are) important influences. We've had some good players out for long times for the second year running.
Well their fans would certainly love to send Southampton down it seems but you are probably right - even more so when its at St Marys and actually Bournemouth's form has been quite patchy. Often relying on late goals to grab points but I guess at least they do that rather than let them in.
