No it's not damning, that is a very polarised statistical outlook to back up a viewpoint. How about in the last 3 seasons we have avoided the drop on each occasion by gaining enough points to be a comfortable mid table side. Which like it or not is what WFC will always be over the long term. Not to say we shouldn't have aspirations to improve, but it would only ever be by relatively small margins, a cup run +/- a few league places each season. Based on the size of the clubs fan base, I don't understand what's wrong with being content to be a compact, well run non top 6 club with a sensible, non egotistical owner that is not forced into having to buy titles like MC/MU/CHE. If you throw about 8 times what we currently spend we could be there too, so what's the big deal.
How is that polarised? I've taken it from where we started having a bad run, and things have not improved much since then. 2.5 years is a long time span, and I think it's a valid thing to point out, as many may not be aware. The last 96 games, is a lot of games. Last season we finished 17th, which is one place above the drop zone, so hardly mid-table. You can see for yourself, by even looking at the table from the last two seasons, we're averaging fractionally over 1 point per game. What I've illustrated is that it's been a long time where we've plateaued at around a point total that may or maynot just about keep you in the league, but there's zero margin of error. It's a bit too close for comfort.
I take your point regarding the top 6 but I would say 5 of those are better than last season. For instance, pretty much every team outside the top 6 have gained 0 points from Man City which is different from previous winners. Whichever ever way you look at it, we probably have not greatly improved in our 3 seasons but not got worse either. We do badly lack a goal scorer which makes any defensive lapses more of an issue and I expect the opposition teams know this. That’s not to say I don’t think we need a new CB and LB but a goal scorer is more important in my opinion. Maybe that Hans Solo bloke is the answer
Absolutely. We've plateaued for the past 3 seasons. Season 1, we did well as Ighalo performed like one of the best strikers in Europe for half a season and Watford were extremely tight defensively. After his goals dried up in the second half of the season, Watford began to struggle. Since then, it's been small peaks and long troughs. But the peaks tend to be enough to see us through an entire season.
Thought I'd take a look on here and see what was being discussed, i.e. if any of the bottom 3 might catch one of the teams just above them. But, there's some serious debate about our chances of getting relegated?? That wasn't even true 3 to 4 games ago, in fact probably longer. There is now no chance of us being relegated, even if we lose our last 3 games (very possible).
Sure but we were 6 points above relegation with a +15 goal difference & there were just 6 further points between 17th & 8th position. All very bunched up. Rather than quoting stats which you can look at a multitude of ways, what will you be happy with? another 45 points & a cup run next season? To be top 10 like Burnley? What is the point you are making that it is damning right now for us to be around mid table &/or having stayed up this year quite comfortably? Just trying to understand, not trying to have an argument.
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I've made my point very clear, but here it is again. "What I've illustrated is that it's been a long time where we've plateaued at around a point total that may or maynot just about keep you in the league, but there's zero margin of error. It's a bit too close for comfort." You ask what I would like to see next season. Not sure where you get another 45 points and cup run from, as we've never done that, but I would like us to be a 50 points-a-season side, without the mathematical possibility of relegation by this time of the season. I would like us to become a steady side, without these ridiculous losing sequences. Sure, the top 6 will always be a challenge, but for to us complete and regularly come out on top against the rest. This is what I want Watford to become, but we're well short of that right now.
ALWAYS???? You mean like Forest, Leeds and other permanent members of the Prem? Or West Brom, Stake and Southampton, all comfortable mid-table sides? I think HB1 has a better sense of perspective.
This is bonkers logic quoting previous clubs that have gone down previously, so did we. I think all you/HB1 are really saying is we need to keep improving season on season, which surely is a given in any league. Otherwise, what exactly is the point being made here?
I agree but i guess we get to a point where improvement becomes very difficult. While there are a couple of teams above us that we can hope to finish above, there are a hell of a lot below us with greater resources who will be thinking they should finishing above us.
But plateauing is improving to an extent, if we roughly stay where we are each season and gain the same amount of points (just over 1 ppp, which would 99/100 be enough to stay up) then we’ve still improved, because so has everybody else. Can anybody honestly say our team this season isn’t miles better than our first season? I’d say we have a few more players who have infinitely more quality than the QSF season. But every other team around us has strengthened too , so having a better team just keeps us in the same place.
You are correct, so apologies to you. I thought we managed 44 points, but it was indeed 45. This was good for the first season, very good in fact, but we've not got anywhere near that level since. I really enjoyed that first season until around Christmas, then we went on this awful run picking up only 16 points from the last 23 games, so that did taint it. However, that was totally acceptable had it been built on. But it' hasn't, certainly result wise. Like I say, I want us to be a comfortable 50 point-a-season side, that has no relegation concerns, even mathematically, by this time of year.
I wouldn't say it's miles better now at all. Ake was/is much better than Holebas. Ighalo was better than any striker we've had since. Gomes was a couple of years younger and better than Karnezis, Britos and Prodl have regressed by quite a degree. Where we have improved is the quality in midfield. Our midfield is superior to that from season one, but that rest is comparable or worse in a couple of positions.
I'm sure that's what we all want but it's a big ask to hit 50 points yoy and have no relegation concerns. Fine as a target but will be difficult to achieve every year. There are probably 25 teams below us in the league with bigger gates/resources, so be prepared to be consistently disappointed.
Did you only start reading at my second word? I challenged your statement that we would ALWAYS be a mid-table club, which is patently not true. We could get a bit higher, but in the fullness of time we're likely to drop a lot lower. Your previous post suggested undue complacency, although that's possibly not what you meant. Of course all bets are off if there's a radical realignment of football due to the bottom dropping out of the TV market, the top clubs ******* off to a European league, or the Prem being reduced to about 12 clubs so the top teams can play in a more lucrative competition.
I disagree. I think we could easily become a comfortable 50 points side. Just think back over this season. We've dropped well over 12 points due to avoidable **** ups. We should be around that total this season. You see it's not too much of a shift to put us in that bracket. There are a lot of teams below us with bigger gates, but that means nothing. It's down to the owners, their vision and ability to put it all together. Watford have one of the best in the business when it comes to exaggerating the potential of a relatively small club. Had the Pozzo's not bought the club, then we'd still be in the lower reaches of the Championship, or more likely League One by now and if I came on here saying I want Watford to be a Premier league side, I'd be spoken of as a dreamer and those days are long gone.....never to return. You see, you cannot limit the ambition. Once you do that you stop achieving. To my mind, there's absolutely no reason why we cannot become a competitive Premier league side, that regularly finishes well clear of the bottom three, by at least 15 points.
We disagree but thats ok. You think we have underperformed over the last 2 seasons so are disappointed. I think we will struggle to consistently get over 50 for the reasons i've given so you will often be disappointed. Its true that our owners nouse will help us punch above our weight. I believe that's got us to where we are today. You believe it should get us 12 points higher. We'll see who's right....I hope you are !
Still enough to keep us up in all 3 seasons but I get the point it's not progressive. Ultimately though survival is the first target - 3 bottom clubs are an example of teams that took it for granted
Basically you’re all arguing about maths. Do we have enough points to be certain we are safe? No. But we are safe. It’s over. That’s not being laid back about it, it’s just common sense based on the season so far and the form of the teams below.
Just imagine this forum if we contrived relegation from here. I would genuinely pee myself laughing. If we lose to spurs away i think it could happen.
I've just done that calculator thing properly using best guesses rather than ridiculously pessimistic. We will finish 12th on 41pts, behind muff on GD by one, if we beat Newcastle. If we put a few past Newcastle we will be 11th on goals scored. If we draw we will still be 12th on 39pts, ahead of CP by 1 pt. If we lose we will be 13th ahead of WHam on GD. One of these will happen, mark my words.
If Saints and Stoke go down that’s sparkie responsible for two relegations in one season, has that ever happened before? Needless to say he’ll still end up with a job somewhere, which is an absolute joke. It’s a sad state of affairs really, most clubs would rather hire somebody crap with PL experience and go down rather than give somebody new a chance and risk going down. It’s almost like they’re scared about the flack they’ll get for appointing an unknown, but somehow it’s not as bad when it’s somebody from the merry go round.
It'll be a great result for us if Stoke, Southampton and WBA go down. Three established Premier League clubs that could all outmuscle us financially leaving the league, whilst Huddersfield and Brighton stay up even though they've been crap for most of the season. We've pretty much gifted Huddersfield their status with the six points we gave them, and given Brighton a helping hand with four points, which will mean the league is much weaker next season and we'll move slightly up the ladder of attractive destinations for signings. Think positive - the excitement of a 15th/16th placed finish next season is just around the corner!
Yes I agree with this. I think the nature of the beast in our position is you still have to start every season looking for three worst teams than you. Hopefully after a few months you can then start looking and aiming higher, but the first necessity will always be to make sure you’re not going down. With all due respect to them, you’d think Brighton and Huddersfield might struggle again as could Swansea and at least two of the promoted clubs as it still remains unusual that none of them go straight back down. Regards us this season, tables don’t lie. You get your points over a season, and it really doesn’t matter whether you get most of them at the start or the end. So far we’ve earned 38 and although the last few weeks have been disappointing, that looks like being more than enough to keep us up. Although we’ve now had three disappointing tail-offs to our PL seasons, at least by getting our points banked early has meant we’ve not had any genuinely nail-biting relegation battles. We’ve always had that little cushion, even if people do debate whether it’s enough. Merely predicting I know but I will say we will end on 41 points. We can beat New astke now they’re safe, and who knows what team united will field against us so close to the Cup final. Spurs have to lift themselves up after their semi disappointment. So there are more points to play for. And if we pass 40 points again, that’s three seasons in a row we’ve achieved this. Not so bad! I do hope Southampton go down by more than two points though because I do still feel a bit bad about our late equaliser against them.
Hughes is dreadful. Surely this season has seen the end of both him and Pardew as premier league managers.
Knickers to that Malts, everyone says that things usually work themselves out with controversial decisions over a season, and we've had our share of them go against us, so it's swings and roudabouts as far as I'm concerned. If Southampton go down it will not be down to any bad decision they might have got against us, it will be down to how they have performed over the entire season. So don't beat yourself up about it Malts, it won't be down to any controversy that might have occured during the match between us.
