Relegation watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by IRB, Dec 12, 2017.

?

Are we going to get relegated?

Poll closed May 24, 2018.
  1. No

    87 vote(s)
    79.8%
  2. Yes

    22 vote(s)
    20.2%
  1. El distraído

    El distraído Johnny Foreigner

    I can't imagine how bad the fans in France must be then!
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  2. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    I hated it.
     
  3. Forzainglese

    Forzainglese Reservist

    I think you should tell that to Sparky Hughes.
     
  4. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    I vaguely like him.

    But he is a case study in mgmt ineptitude.

    He might have something to offer, occasionally, somewhere but his floundering antics make him look such a **** compared to Jermaine ‘Sofa’ Jenas.

    It’s a Keith Andrews world.
     
  5. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    What’s a ball recovery?

    I imagine Scullion did those too, but goals were the only data we had then.
     
  6. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    Pretty mild hokum.

    He’ll say the same at @rsenal, then Newcastle, then Barnet.
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  7. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Can't stand him. Just stands there sounding dour and blames this fact he doesn't win every match on everybody else and everything else. When they go down, without winning a Match under his stewardship, it will be down to bad luck, bad refereeing decisions, and the fact he arrived too late. Nothing to do with his management.
     
    oxhey67 likes this.
  8. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Whilst looking like Mrs Doubtfire.
     
    oxhey67 likes this.
  9. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Ball recovery is the new goal difference.
     
  10. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Loving this West Brom team over these past few games.

    Thank goodness they didn’t play like this all season.
     
    oxhey67 likes this.
  11. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Very rarely will I ever compliment West Brom but hats off to them today, they played superbly, especially in the second half.

    Fans behind the team because they showed a never die attitude and commitment to the cause. Closed down everything.

    Great game to watch.
     
  12. With both the Geordies and Palarse to play, they could do us a big favour.
     
    Jossy and Markoa$ like this.
  13. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    They've barely got anything left to play for and half will know it's a shop window for staying in the league. Their fans weren't behind the team at 2-0 down.
     
  14. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    I thought their fans were pretty good even at 2-0 down, every time they went forward they were behind them, at least that’s what it sounded like on the telly over here. Once they scored though, they were really behind them.

    On a side note, how pathetic is Klopp complaining about the pitch? At 2-0 up, I’m sure he wasn’t complaining. Idiot!
     
  15. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I haven't seen his comments but the commentators mentioned it lots. It was quite clearly a spoiling tactic by WBA, but one I guess they're allowed to use.
     
  16. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Not much to say after today as only us and three others played, but still a point gained.
     
    Optimistichornet likes this.
  17. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    No worse off than this time last Saturday. Arguably slightly better as Saints have a game less
     
  18. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I think one more win and we're safe now
     
  19. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Not sure. Stoke and Saints could still go on a run.
     
  20. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    The good news is that we will finally get our own Adidas kit and no longer have to wear Boro’s unsold kit.
     
  21. HELGO

    HELGO Reservist

    Don’t get this, we are below B’muff by 1 goal yet we are 250/1 to get relegated while B’muff are 500/1. Is it based on remaining fixtures?
     
  22. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Bournemouth have a good run in (on paper...) whereas we have a hard one of course.

    They have Southampton next so really if Bournemouth win that one everyone is safe!
     
    HELGO likes this.
  23. A big ask for Stoke though - they need 10 points and a massive goal difference boost to overtake us, assuming we lose our remaining three. Burnley at home today should probably put us out of their reach, but if not, Liverpool away next week more than likely will.
    I can't see Southampton getting three wins from Bournemouth, Everton, Swansea and Man City either.

    Swansea's next three matches are against Man City, Chelsea and Bournemouth, so they must be crapping themselves too.
     
  24. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Agreed. I think 3 more points will see us safe now. We could still go down though if we lose all 3 remaining games, which is worrying
     
    Keighley likes this.
  25. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Whatever happened to that whoosh emoji?
     
  26. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Ok, let's look at the runners and riders. Assuming Watford fail to pick up another point this season, these are the runs for our rivals.

    Southampton: Bournemouth (h ), Swansea (a), Everton (a), Man City (h )
    9 points behind. Now I think Southampton have a good run-in. They play three teams with nothing to play for. Their only key match is against Swansea. I feel Southampton have a chance of picking up 9 or 10 points from their 4 games.

    Stoke: Burnley (h ), Liverpool (a), Palace (h ), Swansea (a ).
    10 points behind. To my mind, their run-in is too hard. Liverpool away will almost certainly be a loss, so if that's the case, then they will not overtake us.

    Brighton: Man City (a), Burnley (a), Man Utd (h ), Liverpool (a).
    2 points behind. Seriously, where are Brighton going to get two points from? Maybe Burnley, but it's a big ask to expect Brighton to overtake 38 points, although their GD is better than ours, so 2 points would be enough.

    Swansea: Man City (a), Southampton (h ),Chelsea (h ), Bournemouth (a), Stoke (h ).
    5 points behind. Although they have some hard games, I can certainly see them winning a couple of those left.

    Huddersfield: Chelsea (a), Everton (h ), Man City (a), Arsenal (h ).
    3 points behind. Because of their GD being -27, and ours -18, they would probably need 4 points to overtake us. That's a difficult task with the games they have left.

    I think both Palace and West Ham will be able to overtake 38 points, so I've not included those sides.

    My conclusion is, we are still at risk, mainly because we may not pick up any more points. I do not expect Stoke to pick up sufficient points, so we should be safe from them. Southampton have a chance, but they have to be perfect in order to overtake us. Brighton have to pick up a big unexpected win or a couple of draws, which is unlikely. Swansea have a hard task, but it's not out of reason. Huddersfield will have to pick up 4 points from their 2 remaining home games, as I cannot see them picking anything up away.

    There is enough below us, who have to pick up sustained good results, for me to think we'll be ok, but we wont be far from the bottom three by the end of the season.
     
    wfc4ever and The Voice of Reason like this.
  27. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    So many of our rivals have still to play Man City, and had they been playing them mid season of course you would expect them to thrash all of our rivals, but lets not forget the Man City players are already on the beach and wearing their flip flops, so there is every chance that teams fighting for there lives could quite easily beat them.

    I think Stoke are as good as gone and are very unlikely to catch us, but the team that worries me is Southampton, as their run in is not all that hard even though they are due to play Man City on the last day of the season for the reason I have already mentioned.

    Their run in is: - Muff (H); Swansea (A); Everton (A) & Man City (H)

    I can easily see them getting 9 points from those games, even all 12. So unless we can pick up something from our last 3 games they might just catch us :eek:

    I've not worked out what might happen to the others chasing us, but they are all a lot closer to us than Stoke and Sothampton, so if we were to lose all our games I'm guessing they could catch us too!

    Having said all that I don't expect us to be relegated, but neither am I as complacent about our safety as many of you on here are either.

    NB. I have just read HB's analysis above, and from that I think southampton might just save themselves and I tend to agree that Huddersfield have the hardest task in catching us, which make their last minute winner over us all the more significant, because had we kept the out I think we would be safe already.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2018
  28. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Are you this conservative in assessing risk and probability in the real world?
     
  29. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    You both realise Southampton and Swansea play each other right? They can't both win...unless there is a conspiracy against us.

    We're safe. We were safe when we passed 36 points
     
    UEA_Hornet and sydney_horn like this.
  30. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

  31. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    You can be as cynical as you like, as I'm used to it, but I think it's a fair assessment.

    As a bet, we would be a long shot, but there is still a risk. Only a fool would deny it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2018
  32. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    No mention whatsoever of Bournemouth, despite the fact that they have the same points as us, and are only one better on goal difference. Indeed, in your analysis of Southampton’s run in, you describe them as a team “with nothing to play for”.

    If you think we are “at risk”, then so are they.
     
    Simmos likes this.
  33. Not any more.
     
  34. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    That's a fair point, but my assumption is that we wont get another point.

    Bournemouth: Man Utd (h ), Southampton (a), Swansea (h ), Burnley (a ).
    They would only need a point, and even if they did lose all their games they would have to be by a bigger margin than our defeats. But I agree, they should also be considered as at risk.

    ....and maybe I shouldn't have been quite so dismissive of West Ham.
    West Ham: Arsenal (a ), Man Utd (h ), Man City (h ), Leicester (a ), Everton (h ).
    They are currently losing 4-1 at Arsenal. I think Everton at home, is similar as Newcastle at home for us. I can make a strong case for West Ham losing all their other games.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2018
  35. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Draw means Stoke cannot catch us?

    They have Liverpool next ..
     

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