I had a look, it seems their fans really hope the team turn up next week to effectively relegate Saints. https://bournemouth-forum.vitalfootball.co.uk/threads/i-hope-we-turn-up-next-week.5758/ They are concerned players won't turn up but don't seem to equate that to getting relegated
But all the Fink Tank (comprising Dr This, Dr That & the improbably titled Baron Finkelstein) ever say is that there is a 37% chance of a draw.
I am in agreement with HB1, I don't really think we will go down, but stranger things have happened in football and I am not going to be complacent about it, while there is still more than a mathematical chance we could do so. Don't forget football is a funny old game.
With Stoke picking up a good point at home to Burnley yesterday and Southampton hitting form (although they seem to keep losing) I think we need at least 2 more wins
I've been playing with the calculator again and can now confirm that the point against Palace is enough to save our skins. However, I still think West Ham could be in serous trouble if Saints pickup a win or 2. Try it: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/
I don't know who I would prefer to go down out of those two. Southampton is a nice day out and an impressive ground but then West Ham is s zombie pit with no atmosphere.
Absolutely incredible that posters are writing lengthy posts analysing the possibility of going down. What an utter waste of time.
Maybe we can continually discuss a 0-0 at the weekend instead? It's not serious anymore anyway, can you not see that?
As the circumstances for us going down are now quite well defined, it is a relatively simple mathematical equation. Leaving out Southampton v Swansea, both basically need to win all of their other games and we need to lose ours. I have estimated the chances of each game as follows: Swansea to win: Chelsea home: 20% Muff away 25% Stoke home 60% Southampton to win: Muff home 60% Everton away 25% City home 15% Watford to lose Tottenham away 100% Newcastle home 50% Man U away 100% If you put all of this into an accumulator, the odds come out as 0.038% Which is 2963/1. Note: I realise there are situations where Southampton or Swansea can lose one of their games, but not both. You can conservatively compensate for this by removing the effect of the longest odds win - the Saints City one. Which would give you 444/1. And I have been quite generous towards both Swansea and Saints with odds and pessimistic for Watford.
I think they need to BIG wins too, just to shore up our iffy goal difference. As an aside, we switched to GD in the 70s from Goal average. Why the hell was such a stupid system as goal average ever used over the simpler and blindingly obvious goal difference ?
We are safe now - all but mathematically. The Pozzos should be focussed on next season now. To go down. Stoke have to win all three. Away to Liverpool and Swansea and home to Palace. Not going to happen. Southampton have to get 3 wins away to Swansea and Everton and home to Bournemouth and Man City. Not going to happen. If both those DID happen Swansea would have two other games and have to win both - home to Chelsea and away to Bournemouth. Unlikely but possible. Huddersfield would have to get at least three points from home to Everton and Arsenal and away to Chelsea and Man City. Doubtful. Brighton have to get at least two draws from away to Liverpool, Man City and Burnley and home to Man U. Difficult. And if all those happen it leaves Bournemouth (having lost to the other relegation teams) to get a point away to Burnley. So if you believe ALL of the above can happen and that Watford do not pick up a stray point then you should be getting down to the bookies as you clearly can win a lot of money.
But, but, you started a thread indicating that the season is already finished - so you should already be on the beach for your summer holidays...
Only my opinion, but I'd say it was down to the tactics employed by English clubs - tactics they adhered to until first the Hungarian national team and then Real Madrid exposed them as easily countered in the 1950's. The favoured system was 2-3-5, an attacking formation that would have naturally produced a higher goals per game ratio than we currently have (although I haven't researched that to confirm it). As the game was, and still is, not simply all about scoring goals, but also about stopping them, I suspect that the authorities wanted to reward teams that managed that. Goal average does exactly that. And then along came Arsenal in the 1970's, boring the arse off everyone with their 1-0 wins...
What are you going on about now? A season review can be started at anytime. Not sure why that has upset you quite so much, but I guess you must be a sensitive type. If I had written End of Season review, then you'd have a point, but I didn't. You can have a season review after a month if you so wish.
Seems bizarre that the authorities would be concerned about teams scoring and conceding too many goals though ?
Only bizarre if you don't mind football turning into basketball. It's really just a measure of how teams successfully employ both their attacking and defensive strategies.
No. Goal difference put the focus clearly on defence. Under those rules lots of 1-0 wins is far far better than lots of 2-1 wins. GD balances the importance of both.
Which is probably the reason for the eventual swap. Football has a history of taking time to realise that rules aren't working then rushing to change them, apparently without a great deal of thought or foresight, then having to change them again - offside being a case in point. In this instance, I still think the catalyst was Arsenal - they mastered the art of scoring then concentrating on defending, to the detriment of entertainment, something the earlier authorities simply didn't consider would happen.
I’m not sure about that. Goal difference arrived in 1976. Surely 1-0 to the Arsenal was later - under George Graham, for example?
Southampton could get 6 points for every win they get from now on, because it would be such a good effort having only won 5 games all season. I realise this is complete ********, but football is a funny old game apparently.
We haven’t really been in danger of going down at any point, much like the last two seasons. It looks like we are also going to improve on last season so there are positives.
You might be right there - my bad memory. Although, in my defence, I left these shores in 1974 - with an abiding memory of being bored by my occasional visits to Highbury.
So you think we're likely to beat Newcastle or get something at Spurs or United? I don't think we'll go down, but I also think it's fair to say it's unlikely we'll beat last season's total. Not impossible, but not likely either. Even if we do beat Newcastle, it will only give us 1 more point than last season, so I don't think the bunting will be unravelled for that. It's not really a positive. We'd have had one sacked coach, and a very similar season as last year, which by the club's own admission, was a disappointment and not something they wanted repeated.
Since the wheels came off under QSF, I've taken a snapshot of games played and points attained and it's quite alarming. Games played 96. Points 93. So we are averaging under a point a game. This is taken over a 2.5 year period. It's quite damning really. With this average, we are a team that picks up 37 points per season. Those are the facts as to where we are in the grand scheme of things.
bear with me a second; We have nothing to play for, because we are 'safe.' We will therefore probably lose our last 3 games. Many of the teams below us have a game in hand We are 9 points clear of the relegation zone, but our rivals have 12 points still in hand We are going down and some of you are completely complacent and blind to logic.
It looks like we will finish higher than last season. Points totals will differ each season dependent on the strength of the league. The big 4 has now become 6 which means there are less games we can realistically get points from hence a higher position with less points. I do think we will beat Newcastle as well
Yes, but football is a funny old game apparently, so Cardiff might not be allowed to go up because of their ground grading and Fulham might not be promoted, because their manager looks like a dirty old tramp, so we will be reprieved and Bournemouth relegated instead, because they are ****s.
An interesting take on that, regarding league placement over points. Last season there was only 6 points separating 8th to 17th. I believe points are the best measure of progress. Not sure I agree with your big 4 to big 6 comment. Last season the big 6 were the top 6 as they are now, so it's a very comparable league to last year.
