Day 5

Because previous posted evidence doesn't stack up. Every message up til now has been Seer first, Wolf second. This might have changed with the Backup Seer now in play but the Wolves would benefit from no messages unless it's starts pointing towards them. Remember they KNOW each other.

 

Cool! Well I think I'm voting NW Orn tonight tbh

 

Meant can't be. Sorry I was typing in a rush!

 

Also it would be unhelpful if the back up seer posted as late as this.

This is the same wolf tactic that hes used all along. ie post second and name someone as evil knowing we have nothing better to go on.

We need to get this one right becuase we ll be 5-3 tomorrow which will be difficult to win from.

 

Also, why would he write "and bingo!" - the exact phrase used in the Wolf's message yesterday?

 

Im not saying he isnt in the frame, we all are, but are you making that judgement just on his posting times ?

 

Good point but this is "Werewolf" after all why would a Wolf who has us running around in circles leave a message that is so obviously him?

 

So if Wolf is second message then NW Orn is most likely good ( unless the Wolf picked the traitor by mistake...possible but unlikely) .

So does this put the accusers of NW Orn in the frame or are they just secdond guessing like we all are ?

 

More accurately why would the Seer? What the Wolf posts is irrelevant.

 

OMG. Surely that is from the wolf looking to divert attention from elsewhere.

SLB made a good case why the wolf wouldn't post at all unless a backup seer was in place. See post #68

Lets not get this wrong again.

 

I was away from my desk for nearly an hour.

I think that neither NW Orn nor WaS can be on the same side.

Because of "Bingo" it's clear that the second message is the wolf's.

Therefore I think either:

(a) NW Orn is evil and named himself in an obvious wolf message in the hope that we ignore it.
(b) WaS is alpha and simply used the fact that I've been finger pointing in the same way he was against Grrwood

 

What do you mean hidden message ?

 

If we consider a new seer probably being told he / she was the seer at like midnight last night would they really go through all previous messages? Could just as easily be a coincidence IMO. Think some people are reading too much into it.

 

It must be the wolf. Even a backup seer wouldn't be as unhelpful to use the same phrase as in a previous message widely believed to be from the wolf.

 

Well you'd love it to be the wolf wouldn't you

 

a) Possible, very risky though . If I was wolf Id keep all attention away from myself. The only thing going against NW Orn is relatively low posting but that can be said for 3 or 4 others so Im reluctant to rely on that and recently he is posting more .
b) WAS is the one who s behaviour has been the most unpredictable.

 

How does that work ?
I've finger pointed at Grrwood and that makes me the alpha
You've finger pointed and thats made you good
At least be consistant

 

I think using posting times as evidence is a risky tactic. He was accused of that before so if there was anything in it he would have stopped doing it no ?

We must be able to come up with more analytical process to the lynch, otherwise we ll be on our last legs tomorrow.

 

Who do you think the post is from Squibba ? A backup seer unhelpfully using the word bingo (used by the wolf before) or the wolf.

Like SLB says the only way a wolf would get involved today is if they were trying to divert attention away from someone evil.

 

I did a post looking at the posting times of all the messages yesterday:

Day 1:

Message 1 - 9:27am
Message 2 - 1:54pm

Day 2:

Message 1 - 9:14am
Message 2 - 10:00am

Day 3:

Message 1 - 9:10am
Message 2 - 9:15am

Day 4:

Message 1 - 10:22am
Message 2 - 11:12am

Whether the Wolf is Message 1 or Message 2 to post at 2pm would be a complete an utter anomaly. An anomaly that would make sense if there was a change of person playing a role.. soooo?

 

Consider though blind speculation will most likely benefit Evil and will end with a Good being Lynched at ten end of the day while a Seer message will force a Wolf to act to spread confusion.

 

What?

 

Well he's certainly done that by posting the 2nd message calling me evil.

Squibba I accept that a later 2nd message posting might be due to change in seer but why would the new seer use the word bingo when that was used in a previous wolf message.

 

The Wolves would prefer we didn't have any messages at all and instead accuse each other blindly. As the Seer posted something the Alpha has to to try and spread confusion.

 

I agree with the first part, but the wolf didn't have to do anything to try to spread confusion. No 2nd message was doing that already.

At the moment I have no idea who to vote for. The use of the word Bingo has made me think that the 2nd message is from the wolf though.

 

(Stolen from PJ (Copyright ))
What we know then:

Confirmed Good (Omitting Dead):
Squibba
Domthehornet

Likely Good:
SLB
<Anyone he has stayed with and he announces>

Undecided:
BRLR Named as good
NW Orn (Evil?) - Personally I think this as the wolfs message - #BingoGate

That leaves
Powerjugs
Otter
WaS
Meh!
Hornetsgags
Steve Harrow

 

As we 99.9% assume opti was the seer, on day 2 he voted for DR after the message said DR was EVIL, instead of SLB. This surely proves DR was the tinker now.

 

Which would conclude with SLB being Evil. That's the only outcome you're suggesting as he was named Evil the same day.

SCRATCH THIS. WRONG. Brain fart.

 

Yeah and SLB confirmed as Harlot, which we pretty much knew anyway

 

So the tinker is good?