Iirc it was 15% advantage to the Tories when the ape was last voted in. That's a 67% swing to Labour for Meister Manor which would be miraculous if it happens. That's Gerald Ratner quality leadership right there.
He's at it again, with equally tragic results https://twitter.com/BrexitEssex/status/1673268392206168065
Please note TV here means 'tactical voting' (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_tactical_20230911.html): The list of Tories who might be collecting their P45's as a result of TV is a joy to read.
Labour lead down to 10% in this poll. Is the "anti war on motorists" message working? How close does it need to get for a snap election? Interesting times....
It could be close, November rumours. The Tories will bank on taking those Reform votes and by claiming Brexit is under threat, cut into the Labour vote. Against this, tactical voting could still see them off comfortably.
Bollllllloooooooooooooooooooxxx: Poll of polls showing no movement. That's before we've had the combined back-stabbing fest' and competition of "who can be the most deranged" in Manchester. FFS the governing party is having its conference in Manchester at the same time as making noises that their flag-ship public infrastructure project might not make it to Manchester.
Got a feeling that anyone that isn't a die hard has switched and that is it. I predict a record low turnout/spoilt ballot/wasted vote at the next GE. Unless SKS can pull a policy or two out of his growing but ultimately dull posterior, Roland Rat can come up with some tax cuts or whoever runs the other party can suddenly wake up I think we're done. Scottish politics is where the interest will be next time. Seeing the SNP lose record seats will enjoyable.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Some boundary rejigging to be confirmed but if there was a GE tomorrow we'd be looking at this: LAB 418 seats CON 149 seats LIB 29 seats SNP 31 seats Plaid 4 seats Green 1 seat
Meister Manor appears to be shoved from one consituency to the next. Just as we get rid of Boris. The sad thing is I'll no longer be able to vote for Count Binface.
This is from the same site when they put 'tactical voting' into the algorithm (Sept figures - awaiting an update):
SNP losing seats would indeed be great news because it will increase the Labour majority over the Tories. Let’s see what Hamilton and Rutherglen does tonight.
Massive win for Labour, with a near 10k majority. Bad night for the SNP. The turnout of 37% suggests their voters stayed at home. Humiliation for the Scottish Tories who face a wipe out similar to Labour’s recent showings of this continues.
Certainly is... Means an even worse situation for the Tories in parliament is on the cards. English people with strong opinions on the SNP has always seemed slightly weird. Mostly the result of a handy set of off-the-peg menu of opinions perpetuated by the English media. Like a game of word association.
They’ve only themselves to blame. It’s not like they can lay it at the door of Sir Starkers and his incredible inspiration for the Labour movement.
Well, any improvement on the Blue Tories would be a decent start. Cut out the gaslighting and outright lying, the corruption and incompetence and the constant punching down and the country has half a chance of taking a step towards some sort of recovery.
That’s a nickname that will delight the Labour leadership, because they’ll conclude they won’t be frightening off their support that went to the Tories last time.
Ha! SDP! Unisex toilets! Phones in schools! Christmas adverts with non-white people in! Sorry, we're out of time, that's your lot.
The Mid-Bedfordshire by-election, occasioned by Mad Nads’ departure, could yet return a Tory MP. A significant number of people in Beds clearly have not yet had enough Tory gaslighting and are up for another round. The issue is complicated by the lack of accord between Labour and the Lib Dems as to who is best placed to take the seat.
It appears to still be touch and go even if the Lib dem defer to Labour. I can't think there's enough Bedford***** residents affected by the ULEZ expansion so what is the excuse? For Labour not to be streets ahead given the Tories general state and having to put up with mad Nads, it has to raise some questions about lack of leadership and policy surely? Come on SKS pull your finger out and come up with something we can back.
It’s only ever going to be winnable for Labour through really focused tactical voting. The constituency has existed since the end of WW1 and has never sent a Labour MP to Parliament. Even in 1997 the Tories held it with a 7,000 majority. It’s nothing to do with leadership. Chances are even if Labour get close this time it’ll return more to the norm at the GE.
