The All New Political Polling Thread

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by Moose, Oct 21, 2021.

  1. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    VOTE 'DON'T KNOW'!
     
  2. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    It’s a new ‘Third Way’ a refreshing new approach. I think you are on to something here.

    ‘Don’t knows’ score consistently in every poll, certainly better than the Lib Dems. We could be a radical new force in British Politics, maybe even hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament.
     
    Lloyd likes this.
  3. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    You're right. It's time for the old set-in-their-ways 'I strongly agree/disagree' crowd to stand aside. Look where allowing people with convictions and opinions has got the country, it's time the ambivalent and undecided took over. The future is ours! The future is Vague!
     
    Moose likes this.
  4. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    We have a ready-made leader in ‘I didn’t know what my own rules were’ BoJo, so you could be onto something here.
     
    Lloyd and Moose like this.
  5. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I don't know about that to be honest.
     
  6. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    You're just the sort of chap we're looking for!
     
  7. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    2AC72793-952D-4B67-951D-27FFE67F9270.jpeg
     
  8. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Another outlier or a sign that the Tories are sinking further down the toilet?

    Screenshot_20230331-160232.png
     
    Moose likes this.
  9. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I am surprised by this, as for them, the Tories have had a decent month. But they are absolutely fecking awful, so I shouldn’t be.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  10. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  11. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    I think we all know that this is unlikely to happen in reality. But what it does seem to indicate is that, if there has been a Tory bounce under Sunak/Hunt, it's been marginal at best.

    It also indicates that their "stop the boats" main tagline is not having the impact with the electorate that they would have hoped.
     
  12. Sting

    Sting Squad Player

    Brexit is still almost as much a poison chalice for Labour as it is for the Tories. Both parties were split on it in 2016 - and to be fair always were from when we joined the EEC. Personally I think Labour might gain a little more than it would lose by adopting a strategy that suggested closer links with EU institutions without actually advocating rejoining but is it a gamble they would want to take when the next election is theirs to lose?
    Anything they say could prove a rallying point for the Tories andturn the election into a far bigger gamble. If I were Starmer I would just make warm noises about EU cooperation for now.
     
    Since63 and Moose like this.
  13. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    I wouldn't be surprised if a few of those remaining Tory seats in the South West and Central Southern England, weren't susceptible to a LibDem surge - they can be very effective when they concentrate their resources. Also, there could be some constituencies where Labour doesn't try too hard.......
     
  14. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  15. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    The only thing that can stop Labour getting in next time is a monumental fck up somewhere. Starmer is best saying as little as possible and not having any policies at all. LAbout need to keep their heads down, make sure theres no scandals and just wait.

    When in power he only needs to improve on a couple of things to keep the Tories out for a 2nd term.

    I fear we are going to get a long period of pretty much nothing but minor improvements, when in reality we need a reset and some strong leadership, simply because the current lotin charge, soon to be in oposition are so totally incompetant.
     
  16. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I think this is mostly correct, other than the Country is, right now, completely potty and there is an industry at work to make us even more potty by the minute. Who knows where it will end?

    Labour should be able to win from this position by saying little more, but they could yet be undermined by their lack of conviction. Who knows? I’ve given up predicting what the yahoos who inhabit this Isle will come up with next.
     
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  17. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  18. HenryHooter

    HenryHooter Reservist

    Is Elvis Costello a Conservative now?

    When he could be diving for pearls?
     
    Keighley likes this.
  19. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Stuff like this make me think that it's going to be '92 all over again - which (in the long term could be goods for the country as the Tories would 'own' all their election-winning decisions Brexit, economy, NHS, social structure, immigration, education, social care, propriety in public life):

    upload_2023-4-9_17-28-49.png

    https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1644656360405999616
     
  20. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  21. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Would be a good result imho IF the Libdems insist on PR as their price for a LibLab coalition government.
     
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  22. Smudger

    Smudger Messi's Mad Coach Staff Member

    I just hope there is PR. And that Starmer is not one of those smarm types and champagne socialists. That the mandate he may be given is by an electorate thoroughly demoralized and disadvantaged by years of misrule is not to massage his own ego. I'm going to be the new Prime Minister and let's not brook any dissension from people with ideas about real equality. That he actually makes radical and very forward thinking long term changes.

    I have my doubts but then he is a member of the political classes although frankly Mephistopheles would be an improvement on any Tory.
     
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  23. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Going to be a rum do if Labour can’t even match the 41% Corbyn got in 2017. For that reason, I think this is likely to be too cautious an estimate and Labour will at least match that figure, meaning a majority this time.

    The big unknown is who stayed away. The turnout was low and while that could be shy Tories, there will also be less engaged Labour. Councils outside of the big cities are also not Labour’s strongest suit.

    It’ll come down to who has the momentum during the campaign. If the public sense change is not just possible but on its way, they will dump the Tories in bigger numbers. The Tories can hardly expect the public to fear losing their achievements. There have been so few. And the Tories are highly vulnerable to Lib Dem losses, a consequence of pivoting towards the barmy side of the party for so long.

    The hope for the Tories must be to utterly trash Starmer over the next year, with approaching the same brutality meted out to Corbyn. Expect a year of full on Savile, Sir Softy on Immigration, Transgender, Threat to Brexit etc.
     
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  24. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    There are two other factors that may have played a part too.

    First, tactical voting. There has been a website largely circulated on social media that told people which party to vote for, ward by ward, if they wanted to oust the Tories.

    This could explain some of the Libdems outstanding performance. It would also mean that Labour's lower than expected percentage of the vote is less significant as long as their votes were in the "right" areas.

    Second, it will also be interesting to see the Electoral Commission's report into the impact of voter id. If, as many suspect, it had a disproportionate impact on less well off then that could also explain why Labour didn't get the percentage of the vote many opinion polls suggest they should. That would be more of a concern for Labour imho as I can't see how they can easily get those votes back.
     
  25. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    Don't forget Scotland. There are a number of possible reasons for the SNP to suffer a fall in support - this could give Labour (and to some extent the LibDems) a significant boost.

    upload_2023-5-6_12-59-40.png
    (the first line should be 2019)

    Also, the bar for the Tories is very high, they have to get 326 seats to be in Government (not sure how many DUP MPs there might be after the next GE). That's a very long way from the 238 predicted by Sky yesterday.

    For me the dream outcome is Labour being the largest party, but forced to be in coalition with the LibDems, who are able to extract a move to a proper PR system, without a referendum. (I was going to add accelerated EU re-integration, but maybe that's just too much to hope for......)
     
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  26. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Remember the last time the LDs held the balance of power? (Shudders)
     
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  27. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    I remember it well - 5 years of austerity and gentle decline, but in many ways preferable to the post Brexit governments of right wing spivs and charlatans we have had to endure in recent years.
     
    Heidar likes this.
  28. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Nothing gentle about the bedroom tax and slashing disability benefits. The pain brought us Brexit and the shower of bastards who gained from that.
     
    Since63 likes this.
  29. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Not sure a change to the voting system could be made without a referendum?

    The system that was proposed last time was a poor compromise. If proper PR is up for grabs with some mitigation to solve the issue of possible disconnect betweeen constituency & MP then it might well have a chance of getting through.
     
  30. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    It can.
     
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  31. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    The government could choose to have a referendum but there is nothing compelling one. Even the Brexit referendum was by government choice and was not legally required or indeed legally binding on the government.

    Parliament is sovereign and can do what it likes providing a majority of MPs support it.

    I understand what you are saying when you say that the flaw of PR is that it can lead to a disconnect between a voter and their representative. But I think any PR has got to be better than a system that provides a massive parliamentary majority to a party that only gets 43.6% of the vote.

    In fact I believe the Tories formed government in 1951 despite getting less of the national vote than Labour. That is plain daft.
     
    hornmeister likes this.
  32. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    I'm for it so this is good news, but I'm not sure such a change without public consulation would be popular. Might be a vote loser?

    That's my worry, you could get an MP picked for you out of the hat who may or may not be local or a representative of the party most supported in the constituency. That may then mean there's less motivation for them to actually represent the constituent's wishes. I can only really see local govenment being given more power and MPs having to vote as per their direction. I'm against more governement as there's enough of them not doing stuff as it is now. I like the idea of PR as smaller parties need representation, I'm just sceptical how it can work in practise.

    1951 they got more seats but less percentage, marginally. Maybe they couldn't gerrymander effectively as they lst power.Couldn't arrange a vote up in a parliament:D
     
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  33. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Another possible reform would be to move to a single transferable voting system.

    At least that would mean that people won't feel their vote is wasted if it's given to a minor party or independent candidate. I think that is a major factor in the low turnouts at elections. It also means a candidate has to have more broad support even if they are some people's 2nd or 3rd choice.

    I think it would also eliminate the need for tactical voting, which I'm not comfortable with, as the 2nd round of the count (if needed) would ensure you get your "next best" vote taken into account automatically.

    I experienced this type of voting in Australia and, although it is a little be more complicated, it did seem to produce "fairer" results....at least locally.
     
  34. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    The UK only had its first nationwide referendum in 1975. Let's just elect representatives and let them get on with it. After all wasn't the whole idea of Brexit that we were protecting the sovereignty of our parliament? :D
     
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  35. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    I think the opposite might be true. If we had a PR system with multi-member constituencies you could have better representation. Imagine a West Hertfordshire constituency with say, 5 MPs. With PR you might have 2 Tory, 2 LibDem and 1 Labour. If you have a problem you can approach the MP who you think will be most sympathetic to your issue. I know you trade off a degree of local connection, but there is no perfect system. At least with PR you minimise the chances of one party having the opportunity to wreck the country for 5 years based on about 40% of the popular vote.
     
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