The All New Political Polling Thread

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by Moose, Oct 21, 2021.

  1. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  2. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Yeah but that just proves London is full of British hating Islamists though. :rolleyes:
     
    Since63 likes this.
  3. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    No-go zones suppressing all the non-Muslim voters.
     
    lm_wfc, Bwood_Horn and sydney_horn like this.
  4. CarlosKickaballs

    CarlosKickaballs Forum Picarso

    If that fridge is good enough for Will & Kate it is definitely good enough for disposable common scum like me
     
    Moose likes this.
  5. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    It doesn’t look as if those doors could close.
     
  6. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

  7. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    The problem with modern politics is that the right wing of the Tory Party pulled the rest of the party over with them and then, under Johnson, cleansed the parliamentary party of moderates and one nationers. When that's failed miserably in terms of being able to successfully govern a country, they've managed to rebadge themselves and blame the Tory Party for not being right wing enough.

    It's like, a horrendous right wing goverment has failed - what's the answer? Even righter wingery!

    I think we just need 15 years of fully fascist government to let these gammons get it all out of their systems.
     
  8. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    A benevolent dictator?
     
  9. EnjoytheGame

    EnjoytheGame Reservist

    Careful there, Moog, the Gammon Police will be along in a moment to express faux outrage on behalf of their fellow ruddy-faced, wobbly-chinned brethren born between 1945 and 1964!

    No, but seriously, the nudge-nudge-nudge of the Overton Window rightwards has been engineered quite deliberately and now we're being told it's purely what the people wanted. The think tanks have spent two decades on this, infiltrating the media and the Conservative Party to give the impression that what they think is the common view.

    We're told that Lee Anderson is just saying what the majority of people in Britain think but are too scared to say. So the country is actually tens of millions of Alf Garnetts too scared to express themselves openly? How depressing.

    Britain of the 1990s and early 2000s was far from perfect but it was also not a place where bigotry and prejudice was dressed up as 'good old fashioned common sense'.

    Sections of our media have become the audio-visual equivalent of a 1960s 'No Blacks, No Irish' sign in a boarding house window. The regression is as stark as that. Things that would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago are increasingly normalised.

    If they are correct, and the majority of British people think this way, then Britain is a pretty narrow-minded, bigoted, unpleasant and deeply insecure place that relishes punching down and being prejudiced against anyone or anything 'different'.

    I really don't think that's the case but I'm afraid, anyone who thinks the way the likes of Anderson, Gullis, Braverman and co think definitely does fit into that category.
     
    Moose likes this.
  10. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    I know you're teasing but Anderson himself is a gammon and he's not of that age. It's certainly not just them...
     
  11. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I feel it is important to point out it is #NotAllGammons. Spare a thought for ruddy faced pinkies who do NOT expectorate fascist ideals and sympathies.
     
  12. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Part of the problem is what is the Tory Party for anyway? In the 1980s, like it or not, it had a clear strategy and programme. By the mid-nineties it was clear that it was an obstacle to progress, irrational, increasingly incoherent economically and backwards looking socially.

    It was gifted the 2010 election by the financial crash and the New Labour project falling foul of its own contradictions. But the Tories gained power with no sort of coherent programme or philosophy, other than to manage the debt, which, while big then, is effing enormous now.

    With no coherent programme, the Little Englanders were able to stage their coup and convince enough people that being nationalistic and hostile was enough on its own. That One Nation Toryism was so comprehensively routed by irrational flat-Earthers doesn’t say much for it. It’s essentially gone, unpopular with the Conservative Party members and irrelevant to most of the Country. Of the hundreds of right wing hacks around, few will call themselves ‘One Nationists’ because it involves loyalty to institutions, international commerce and moderate levels of rationality long since left behind.

    It will get a thumping at the election with Farage and Truss inheriting its undead soul.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  13. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    The government aren't right wing enough and it's a Wokerati, secret state, pizzagate conspiracy like the one which scuppered Truss' mini budget!
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  14. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

  15. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  16. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    If the Tories "know" they are going to lose, they will probably hang on until the last possible date in January. Why would they give up the ministerial pay and perks any earlier than required.
     
  17. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Except Sunak is worth £730m and could simply swan off to any part of the World. He doesn’t need to do it.
     
  18. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    No wonder Sunak is under pressure!

    upload_2024-3-15_17-21-6.png

    In this prediction Reform decimates the Tory vote, but gets no seats :) and the Lib Dems aren't far away from being the official opposition :):)
     
  19. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    This really does lay bare, yet again, the farcical nature of our FPTP system.

    Reform, 12%, 0 seats.

    Liberal Democrats, 11%, 55 seats.

    I've got no time for Reform, but there is no doubt that the system is fundamentally broken. In a similar vein, a party getting around 45% of the vote and having an unassailable majority shouldn't be a thing either.

    Hopefully electoral reform comes along sooner rather than later.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  20. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I’m unconvinced. Means that the latest project for the wealthy to trawl for bigots (and there always is one) can’t get the seats that a party, able to keep MPs because of its local work, can. Means you have to win communities.

    Not saying there isn’t some reform required, but any system needs to also have something of that bar imo.
     
  21. How many? Tice Habib and 30p enough?
     
    Moose likes this.
  22. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Exit poll out in Russia:

    upload_2024-3-17_21-31-12.jpeg
     
  23. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Must be legit, it says 87.97%. That's far too specific to be made up.
     
  24. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    87.97% clearly indicates he must be the most popular leader in the World.
     
  25. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    88% made me laugh, at least make it realistic.

    When they were interviewing Russians outside of their embassy, in London, when one of the ladies said "I'm voting for my family in Petersburg and voting for Putin"

    If your disposing of all the opposition and anyone who votes against you to remote work locations and away from their families, you are going to get the vote you need.
     
  26. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I'm sure that half of these polls are run by activists themselves, to influence voters

    Its interesting to see the number of people that actually get asked in making up these polls. https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election


    There is even a HoC paper on polling it-self. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldppdm/106/10616.htm

    3. How does a poll choose a sample that is truly representative?

    There two main methods. The first is “random” sampling, the second “quota sampling”. With random sampling, a polling company either uses a list of randomly-drawn telephone numbers or email addresses (for telephone or some Internet polls); or visits randomly-drawn addresses or names from a list such as an electoral register (for some face-to-face surveys). The polling company then contacts people on those telephone numbers or at those addresses, and asks them to take part in the survey.

    “Quota” sampling involves setting quotas—for example, age and gender—and seeking out different people in each location who, together, match those characteristics. Quota polls are often used in face-to-face surveys. In addition, some Internet polls employ quota samples to select representative samples from a database of people who have already provided such information about themselves.

    I don't think it takes a poll to tell us that the Tories are going to get stuffed to be honest.
     
  27. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  28. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    If the Tories hit their low prediction and the Lib Dems get what they are predicted to get, the Lib Dems would have more seats. Who'd have seen that coming 5 years ago?
     
  29. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    If everyone hits their low seats then we would have 256 independents !

    A by elections later and we would have more carnage than we do now.
     
    Moose likes this.
  30. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    The polls suggest, however, even given the absolute incompetence and corruption of the last 14 years, around a third of all voters will vote for one of the two conservative parties.

    When it comes to it, seems likely they will vote for the established Tory brand, so the Tory seats are likely to be towards its higher outcome.
     
  31. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Politics as a sport is the hallmark of our age.
     
  32. lm_wfc

    lm_wfc First Team

    I'm planning on getting a Trump Biden half and half scarf.
     
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  33. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Half orange, half grey?
     
    Keighley, UEA_Hornet and Moose like this.
  34. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    This is quite fun, you get to have a little play with your own predictions
    Labour need about a 14% advantage over the Tories to have a majority https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/s...=23.47&LAB=43.87&LD=9.82&GRN=5.99&RefUK=11.98
    16 or 17% to have a proper working majority of 25+ seats
     
  35. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Throughout my life I've always voted, and unlike a lot of you on here, (on both sides), I've no problem changing my voting patterns. I'm the target audience here, Mr Average, 2.3 kids etc. I'm the door they knock on when they want the votes.

    Why did I vote Conservatives last time? Jeremy Corbyn. Literally no other reason.
    Why will I vote Labour this time? Because they're slightly less sh*t than the Conservatives right now.

    Will Labour make a difference? It'll be slightly less sh*t than it is now.
    Will the polls quoted earlier in this thread be accurate? No, because people remember Jeremy Corbyn and young people don't vote in enough numbers. It'll be a huge majority for Labour, just not as bad as predicted, (I'd guess the Tories will get well into the 100's).

    Is there a viable alternative to the big two? No. And that's the bigger problem.
    Am I looking forward to the election? I'd rather be stuck in this section for life.
     
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