It’s wilfully misunderstanding the point on his part. You were only allowed to meet one person locally, not because it was likely that you would get the virus outside, but because people shouldn’t travel or do much in general that would increase the need to visit public transport, petrol stations, rest rooms or hospitals etc because that would mean closer contact. The problem with 100 in the Downing Street garden was where would they pee? Where would they enter the garden from bearing in mind this is a terrace? All these things direct people to close contact. That’s why it was illegal. And of course they knew it. I don’t buy Johnson as anything less than the very willing centre of attention at a party.
To keep his job, I think it would be enough to get the "40%" or so of Tory supporters that currently want him to resign to change their view. But I agree, I still think he is toast and will be gone in the spring after the local elections, if not before.
Rachel Maclean's (no, me neither) apparently is spinning like a top 'clarifying' de Pfeffel's remarks at PMQs...
Farcical. Now claims he attended for 25 minutes and did not know it was a party. The booze was flowing, he was drinking. What did he think it was, the Audit and Risk Committee? COBRA? The invite was sent by his own Private Secretary! To come to his own residence! A party he has concealed for more than a year. We have always followed the guidance he said when quizzed on the Xmas Parties. What guidance? Not to mix beer, wine and spirits?
Johnson pulls out of a planned trip to Lancashire today because "a family member" has tested positive for Covid. Of course they have
Rees-Mogg in particularly nauseating form on Newsnight claiming the PM was contrite and as sorry as a chap could be. Kirsty Wark failing to push on why the apology followed so much deceit and to challenge robustly the continued proposition that in some way the event was ‘technically within the guidance’ when any ordinary person would simply laugh at that.
Is it possible that Johnson could delay the report indefinitely by simply leaking details of a party every day? Leave Sue Gray metaphorically endlessly painting the Forth Road Bridge? (Yes, yes, no QI klaxon needed, it’s not always being painted).
I think it will be delayed anyway. At the moment it is a lose/lose for the Government. If it clears Johnson and Number 10 then no one would believe it. If it finds they did break the rules/law then the public will demand blood. Just look how the finding of the High Court that the PPE VIP list was unlawful hardly got a mention yesterday. The public are fickle and have a short attention span. Johnson will hold onto the report until the fuss dies down.... probably until after the May elections at the earliest. He'll then hope that something else has grabbed the public attention....like the trial of a Royal being sued for sexual assault for example. The best bet for the opposition parties to oust Johnson (if that's what they really want!) is to keep the favourable polls into the May local elections and hit the Tories at the ballot box.
I don't think that will ever reach court - a deal will be reached and/or a judgement will be recorded against him. There's no way that buffoon is going to be cross-examined in an open court.
I think it will be released, but it will be ensured that the blame is spread across all relevant parties (a culture of arrogance), and the prime ministers role will therefore be reduced. Without taking into account that the PM was the person making the rules and should be held to much greater account, plus sets the tone for what is acceptable. Knowing civil service publications, anything that isn't damning/ is contested will not be included. Tory Ministers/ sympathetic media will immediately latch onto criticism of the Civil Service: expect constant Comms around how it is to blame. The PM will announce plans for reform. A few in his private office will go, plans to reform the civil service etc., to position Boris as the man who will get rid of sleaze. The voters won't completely forgive him, but like you say, attention spans are short. I still don't think Boris will be in charge at the next election. I think something working in his favour is that no long-term thinking viable leaders want to take over as PM right now. Taxes are increasing, as is the cost of living. There are clearly still more scandals to be revealed, including parties and sleaze. Why not wait for Boris to be blamed for all of that, before making your move? If Rishi is in collaboration with Cummings, I imagine he will sit and wait for his moment (knowing more stuff is going to be leaked), whilst maintaining as much distance as possible from the PM (as to appeal to voters) whilst not publicly criticising him (to appeal to his own party).
Oh and I'd expect a whole load of articles to be released in the next few days to distract away from the story. I'd expect stories on foreign espionage i.e. internet hacking/ close shaves with Russia, Covid stories (we've already had the isolation rules conveniently changed this morning), and anything else which catches the public imagination and changes the subject.
Yes and the first meeting between Truss and Sefcovic over the Northern Ireland Protocol is today. A good argument with the EU, perhaps with triggering Article 16, will certainly get the public's attention and would come with a "patriotic" call to back the government against those unreasonable foreigners.
Frankly, I think it's too late for this tactic to pay off in anything other than a very short-term way. I think Boris is too much of a liabilitty for his party now - although the point about no one else yet being willing to take on the poisoned chalice is a good one. I suspect he will be gone by the time of the party conference in the autumn at the very latest.
I don't know what they'll do/say but I'm 99% the "R-word" won't be mentio0ned as the Tories are too dependent on their Full British Citizens' money.
Fourteen parties under investigation. I’ll repeat that number, fourteen, because on first reading those remembering that a short while ago Johnson was ‘unaware’ of any of them, not least of all the ones he went to, could be forgiven for being a bit confused.
Operation Save Big Dog is a go: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...33.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
A couple of good news COVID stories will see him good in the mean time. In reality, breaking lock down rules is totally stupid, but it makes virtually F all difference to anyone, especially over a year after the fact. I never called for anyone to lose their job, not in England, Scotland or Wales, particularly anyone who will have to put themselves up for re-election. I suspect Boris is going to be OK. I mean, it's not like he took us into an illegal war in the Middle East. If Blair can survive that, Boris can survive this storm in a tea cup.
