How Do We Survive?

So about half as likely to win that title (and they did) as Norwich currently are to go down.

 

I don't think anyone was saying that Leicester were 100% certain to win the title in the way that it's being said that Norwich are 100% to be relegated though ? Of course Norwich are more likely to be relegated than Leicester were to win the title. The bookies now say 16/1 i think so about 6.25% chance to stay up ?

 

No, I was simply saying to another poster the comparison to Leicester’s 5000/1 odds to win the league was erroneous, because it’s not comparing apples to apples.

 

Femenia seems pretty committed to the club, I believe only Cathcart and Kabasele have been here longer. The more cynical of us could say that he's still here because the wages are good, he isn't particularly ambitious while still having the chance to play top flight football in a major league that he probably wouldn't get anywhere else (before coming to us he'd only spent two seasons in La Liga, one of them ending in relegation), but he was clearly committed to last season's promotion push (there's been no shortage of senior pros at clubs relegated from the PL who continue to drag them down with their lack of commitment and big wages). The problem with Kiko is more lack of mental toughness than lack of commitment.

 

Players like Kiko, Cathcart and Sema are only ‘committed’ because their natural level is the second tier, but our owner has given them the opportunity to occasionally play above their level and rewarded them with contracts no other club would.

Players like that are as much a problem as the ones intent on moving on, because they’re just not good enough.

 

While I think this is true, I still don't believe we have the money or prospects to buy proven top level players.
The SA investment in NUFC is such a shame, as I think they would have been very likely to go down and face an uncertain future, leaving us and Burnley to fight it out for the 3rd relegation slot.

 

I don’t disagree, I just don’t necessarily see players like Kiko as being committed, they’re just aware of their limitations and more then happy to accept long contracts from Gino when he offers them out. It’s not like we’ve had other clubs queuing round the block to take players like Kiko, Cathcart and Sema off our hands over the years.

 

Compared to my list from #95, a fair fewer teams have survived from Newcastle or Norwich's position than Burnley's. Actually up until 2004/05, when West Brom did their great escape after picking up only 10 points from 19 games (and one win from their first 23!) no teams survived in the Prem after picking up the same or a similar number of points in 19 games. Maybe there could be a similar scenario this season when the least awful team out of four survives with a points total in the low 30s.

When I was preparing to submit this post, I didn't realize Norwich were already playing last night, and I was out most of yesterday and the website I use to look at past league tables isn't at all mobile phone-friendly - you have to blow it up to see the table and annoying ads get in the way which drains the battery rapidly. Now they've played their 20th game and lost yet again, it's fair to say they already look doomed - no team has picked up so few points at this stage and gone on to survive (West Brom in 2004/05 went on to draw their 20th game and the other teams that achieved great escapes already had more points by the 19th game).

With regards to Newcastle, some of the great escapees from my earlier post survived albeit from a slightly higher points total from 19 games - 2007/08 Fulham and Sunderland (both on 14 points), 2013/14 Sunderland (14 points), 2014/15 Leicester (13 points), 2015/16 Sunderland (12 points) and 2016/17 Swansea (12 points). In fact, apart from Fulham all of them would have survived on the same points total as Newcastle - Swansea would've still stayed up comfortably and finished above us. Ironically, perhaps Newcastle could learn something about great escapes from their big rivals! Unfortunately, you have to also factor in the huge amount of money Toon are blessed with, which the above teams didn't have.

 

I think Kiko is well worth a place in our first team squad, he is not a top class player but is a decent average PL player IMO. His biggest problem is his fitness, but when fit and firing on all cylinders he is a decent run of the mill PL performer.

 

Moussa Sissoko? Josh King? Danny Rose? (Okay the last one has failed but he was a proven, top level player)

 

And when is this exactly?

 

I cannot see beyond L/D/W over the next 3 games, but am not confident of that with our leaky defence. 4 pts achieved like this would then make it how I think our path to survival may pan out as being 1 from us, Leeds and Newcastle to be relegated, along with Norwich and Burnley, but that is clearly one of many permutations! Achieve fewer than 4 points and I'll stop looking at permutations!

 

Halfway through that season many, many people including 'expert pundits', irrespective of the odds, were saying it was impossible for Leicester to win the league although they were top. This is the equivalent of now saying Norwich are already relegated. Now I do expect them to go down, in fact I expect them to finish bottom, but it is not yet impossible that they could survive.

 

Yes, jumbo posted the odds above, Leicester were 8/1 to win the league after 20 games. Norwich are currently 1/16 to survive. So however many people were saying they wouldn’t win the league at that stage, they were still deemed twice as likely to do so than Norwich are to survive this season.

 

And that's the point. It was very annoying that, irrespective of the odds and the evidence of the first half of the season, people said it was impossible (rather than unlikely) for a team outside the 'big 6' to win the league. This season, given the odds and the evidence of the first 20 games, it's highly unlikely that Norwich will survive, but not impossible.

 

I think 8/1 with half the season gone was probably about spot on for Leicester to win the league, likewise I think Norwich having a 6% chance of survival is equally accurate at this point in time.

 

I agree. He can battle it out with Ngakia. Mostly because we aren't in a position to completely overhaul the squad. Keep Cathcart as emergency backup too. Sierralta needs to be partnering better defenders and Foster can stay until the end of the season.

That just means Bachmann, WTE, Masina, Kabasele, Rose need to go.

Likelihood of these things happening...

 

What manager comes to Watford thinking they're gonna last 2 seasons anyway?

 

With Hodgson's appointment, comes renewed hope......well for me anyway.

So with that in mind I have new optimism and have identified these games as potential wins/draws.

Burnley (h & a)
Palace (h & a)
Southampton (a)
Everton (h)
Brighton (h)
Leeds (h)
Arsenal (h) (if they have one of their flaky days)
Leicester (h)
Brentford (h)

So that's 11 of the remaining 18 I expect us to challenge for at least a point, if not 3.

The harder games are:-
West Ham (a)
Aston Villa (a)
Wolves (a)

The impossible games are:-
Liverpool (a)
United (a)
City (a)
Chelsea (a)

So from those identified 11 games, we need to win probably 7 (or 6 and draw 3 etc). That gives us 35 points, which I feel could be enough this season. I think 40 points is possible, but unlikely.

 

Sorry, to be the bearer of bad news, I suggest an immediate call to your doctor might help, after that I suggest you visit the bookies and put a bet on us staying up, after last Friday staying up is extremely unlikely!

 

I hate to burst your bubble but Hodgson lost his last game against Burnley 0-3 at home. Good job we’ve got them twice.

 

We're down, people need to accept it. We just got battered by Norwich at home, the players aren't up to it and Hodgson won't be able to change that.

 

I also hate to burst your bubble Hornetboy but I'll just remind you of one other game when Roy was in charge........ Iceland

 

Full credit for your optimism I wish it would rub off on me!
I watched no football over the weekend after Friday's footballing extravaganza.
But Burnley ground out a result against Arsenal and the Saints drew with Man City. In my eyes that's not looking good for team that lacks confidence and most of all heart and desire. They've shown in flashes that they can play with heart but not often enough.
My heart wants a miracle turnaround in form but my head has just told it to shut up and behave.

 

I get it, but I see no reason for pessimism. With Ranieri it was obvious to me for a while we would be going down. Now that certainty has been replaced with a bit of hope. New manager, new direction and usually a few cheap wins follow. I see no reason, at this stage, to write us off. We have Burnley away and Brighton at home over the next three games. West Ham away is in between that. There's no reason we cannot pick up at least 6 points from those games. If we get to 20 points from 23 games we're in business and everyone starts to believe.

 

We kept Ranieri a bit too long in hindsight. The appointment a few games earlier with Newcastle and Norwich still to play i'd be a bit more optimistic. As it stands we need to be as good as Leicester have been to stay up with our existing players. We have 18 games left and i've used a target of 36 points.

 

In fairness to HB, we still control our own destiny, though my money is firmly on relegation. For once, I hope HB is right!

 

Again I admire your belief and hope it runs off on me and the majority of others.
I honestly had a little hope up until the Brentford debacle. They showed a fair bit of passion but how was Ranieri going to stop individual errors that cost us dearly?
We can only but hope for a bounce, I can't see it personally but there is always hope I suppose. They've shown in glimpses that they're capable but we need a remarkable turnaround in fortunes for this to happen.
True there is no reason why we couldn't pick up points and until I witness how the team perform under them I won't give up hope.
But I'm still left uninspired atm.

 

How Burnley away and Brighton at home are suddenly winnable games is beyond me. Both will take us apart with ease.

 

It’s good we have a lot of home games where we can
be competitive and the big boys are all away games so they can be written off. Still a tall order but I’d rather the fixtures fell this way round.