How Do We Survive?

I'm looking at our remaining games and I think it's fair to target 40 points as the cut off figure.

I know historically that's been higher than needed in recent years, but it's a benchmark that has to be aimed for.

Newcastle are going to be an unknown quality. There are unique in the fact they were taken over by the world's richest owners. It's hard to judge what their ceiling would be, but I think it's safe to say they'll probably have a better second half of the season.

Newcastle are on 11 points from 19 games. It's not unthinkable, if they make all those star signings, to assume they couldn't at least replicate Brighton's first half of season and get 27 points. That would give them 38 points.

Of course, clubs currently sitting above us could be sucked in. Leeds look vulnerable to me. You cannot discount Brentford from going on a wobble too. But right now, it looks like 3 from the bottom 4.

So, for us to get 40 points, that's equivalent to 9 more wins. Probably the lowest realistic denominator for that would be 7 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats.

It's a tall order, and I hope we don't need as many points as that.

When you list the games you think on paper you could win, the next three would certainly feature. This is why I think we have to win all three, to give ourselves a chance.

Here are 9 games I think we possibly could win:
Newcastle (a), Burnley (a), Norwich (h), Palace (h), Brentford (h), Everton (h), Leeds (h), Brighton (h), Burnley (h)

Might be able to spring a surprise in a game you don't expect too much from. Arsenal are often ripe for that.

Obviously, we'll get nothing at Liverpool, City, Chelsea or United.

The rest we might scramble a draw on a good day at Southampton, Leicester home, Palace away

I can't see us getting much against West Ham away, Villa away or Wolves away.

So that's our lot. 9/10 potential wins, which would be enough. In order to do that, we cannot have anymore slip ups. No more poor results against sides we feel we can win against.

At the end of the day, we've got to walk the walk. We HAVE TO start winning games.

 

It’s not been 40 points for 20 years, but if we end up needing 40 points we quite simply will not be staying up.

 

I think we'll get to early 30s at the maximum and that almost certainly won't be enough.

We'd be better off using the remaining games to let Ranieri fully appraise the squad and given Gino a full review before he leaves in the summer.

 

To further add the teams at the top are getting stronger and it’s getting harder and harder to get points off them, hence why it’s not been 40 points for a long time and if anything the total is more likely to be closer to 30, than it is 40 these days. That still won’t help us IMO mind.

 

Quite frankly we need a miracle. We need more players added now who improve the squad, not just bodies to make up the numbers.
I honestly can't see 9 points in the next three that would be a dramatic turnaround in fortunes. 5,6 possibly 7 if we get lucky. The teams we face over those 7 days are all looking at the matches against us as needed points too. It's going to be agonising.

 

We don’t. There are no green shoots. The players coming in will need to be fit and ready but seemingly haven’t played much so that’s doubtful. Cathcart is still near the first team.

I suppose Dennis might drag us through but that’s about the only hope we have. No goals seem to come from anywhere else.

 

We are getting nowhere near 40 points. We’d do well to get 35 and then will need to hope that is enough.

 

I can’t work out the maths, but it would surely be an impossibility for a team who haven’t kept a clean sheet in 18 games to get 27 points from 20 games. I can’t get my head round the amount of goals we’d need to score but it would be way more than what Dennis could realistically produce.

 

Determination, hard work and lots of good luck might keep us up.

 

We have the potential to go on a bit of a run and get out of it, the squad is OK in parts and the new additions may spark something. The other 3 below us may continue to be woeful and we could catch up with Leeds, Southampton or even Everton.

But I just can't see it happening. The squad seems so mentally weak with a few exceptions like Dennis, Pedro and Sissoko. Ranieri doesn't seem to be able to get any sort of tune out of them anymore, after more encouraging signs earlier on, when we were OK but stupid mistakes cost us.

I think we'll limp along the rest of the season and finish with only Norwich below us. It's been a total disaster - Xisco not up to the job, penny pinching and borderline arrogant recruitment being the main factors. The club seem to view players as livestock and pay no attention to the mental side of the game, so we end up with a squad full of players with no attachment to the club, who mostly bottle it when it gets tough.

 

Thing is, we don't recruit that way. We recruit bodies and hope that one is a shocker and actually any good.

That's why we went down. That's why we are worse now than when we went down and why we are going down again.

 

As long as we have all our life to live and all our love to give we will survive.

 

I genuinely hope there is nobody on here who realistically thinks 9 points in the next 3 games is a remote possibility, as I fear for their sanity. You’d get decent odds on any team in the league winning those 3 in a row, even accounting for how poor the teams they would be playing are. A team without a clean sheet and 13 points from 18 games doesn’t win 3 on the bounce.

I’d personally be hoping for at best 4, and be over the moon with anything more.

 

Brick up the goal. There is no other option.

 

True we don't. Maybe just maybe this is the window where they do though. So far we have recruited in the desperately needed areas, well apart from Kayembe. I will just have to keep my fingers crossed on him because I've never seen him kick a ball.
But we need more and we need better. I suppose it depends on if we can move on any of the **** we have.

 

Which loads on here said was the plan last summer and was praised by many with an A* star grade. Yet, less than 6 months further on and we are saying we need to do the exact same.

Yet some are saying it’s unavoidable because all we can do is take punts on players - as opposed to you know, scouting properly, identifying young talent and not doing everything on the cheap.

 

I don't hold out much hope. We fill the squad with Sema, Cathcart, Rose, Fletcher, Massina, Gosling types and then pile more **** on top. It's almost like the quality of a player has absolutely no bearing in our decision making.

We then get idiots saying 'Utter **** Player is fine for a back up,' except they aren't, because even backups have to be good enough to not destroy us when they are called upon.

Then we augment our problem by going out and signing more filler and no quality. But we stumble upon a Dennis every 3 years, so our owners are happy because they will turn a profit but our team is gash.

 

How could anyone have know a punt on a late 20s, 4th choice striker at Middlesbrough wouldn't pay off? It was unforeseeable.

 

What about the odds on 3 defeats ?

 

But as Duxbury said in the summer, we lost our way and won’t be signing those types of player anymore.

 

For a team in our position significantly shorter than 3 wins clearly.

 

Pretty high odds I’d imagine but you never know what the lads can come up with!

 

Hmmm A+ when the glaringly obvious wasn't addressed!
I can still sit and scratch my head at how we kept a defensive record last season but I got highly criticised for giving opinions on our defence last season.
But I'm trying to be optimistic here. One more commanding CB a RWB because I believe that's the way Ranieri wants to set up now. Added to a quality DM a d they're out there and not overly expensive.
But dross needs shifting too.
We could possibly scrape through by the skin of our teeth then but in all honesty I think it's already over.

 

There's really no point in looking game by game to arrive at a points total. Roll back 10 games and see which of thoese games you'd have predicted we won and which we would lose. It's impossible.

 

We need a GK far more than a RWB!

 

I will say we have a decent record against Newcastle. But they should of slaughtered us at the Vic. They're carp and we're no better it's who gets abit of luck Saturday.

 

Yes we do, but as you said yesterday one isn't coming in .

 

Yes. But the same statement can be probably applied probably to the positions you have listed so not sure what difference it makes…

 

We don't.

 

It's not really an exercise in prediction, it's more painting a realistic picture, IMO, of what needs to happen in order for us to survive.

If we beat Newcastle, it will be huge for many reasons. It takes 3 points away from a direct rival and reduces their remaining games by one, whilst increasing our points total over them to 5. It will give everyone a big lift going into the next two games and most importantly it breeds belief.

Of course, the opposite applies if we lose. Ranieri may lose his job, we'll drop into the bottom three and psychologically that can be damning, plus it gives a direct rival a huge boost and starts their recovery. A draw of course, is not the worst thing in the world. I'd say that is better for us than Newcastle. They'd still have only won one game all season and missed a big opportunity to beat one of their weakest remaining opponents. For us, it keeps things alive, especially if it's backed up with a win at Burnley.

So, for me, if we lose, then it's all over bar the shouting. Any other results keeps our season alive.

 

I reckon our season could end up eerily similar to Fulham in 2018/2019. Joka got sacked in November and Ranieri got sacked in Feb and they ended up on 26 points.

They bought in a load of random players (for £100m no less) but had a rubbish defence including Alfie Mawson. Ranieri did ok to start with and got 9 points from 8 games, but they then trailed off massively. Obviously Parker was then given the job but he couldn’t change anything either. They let in 81 goals, we’re on track for 76.

 

Waste of valuable funds on bricks. Just put Danny Rose in there instead.

Plus Gino is only able to take ‘punts’ don’t forget. He might gamble on a different size of brick rather than do due-diligence on the correct bricks.

 

F*** me! How do you lot manage to get out of bed in the morning! We're not half-way through the season yet so nobody can be written off. Yes, we've been pretty sh1te so far but so have at least 3 others and one or two of the teams that are currently sitting comfortably in mid-table are sure to go on a bad run.
For goodness sake, try to learn from the past - every season when we struggle is the same - doom and gloom - but we never go down... erm, er, oh hang on...