Exit Poll & result discussion

Or bicker and get bugger all done.

 

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The exit polls are the most reliable polls results we will see, and it does look like we are heading for a hung Parliament. I cant actually believe that lib Dem's have much better then the last election after all the coverage they have had this time round. I think alot of voters have changed there minds on the lib Dem's at the last minute.

 

Exactely.

 

brown to stay on in a coalition?

 

They are saying that the BBCs exit poll was over 60 seats out once so are offering the excuses already

 

With who? Taking the exit poll at face value he'd need the Lib Dems and others just to stay on.

 

At a time when the public have lost trust in MP's i think its the perfect outcome that 1 party will not rule outright. I'm not sure who the lib dems will side with, but at least we know that the parties will have to work together. What hopfully will lead to a mixure of ideas between parties and therefore better goverment.

 

Possible, they are talking already about what labour will offer the libdems in case of a hung parliment.

Democracy in action for you, a large majority of people in this country have voted to get brown & labour out and could still be stuck with them in charge.

 

A large minority don't you mean, unless you're suggesting the Tories will have 50% of the popular vote? It's a big difference IMO.

 

The Lib Dem's will want Brown out from Labour, and would want PR from the torries. they are far more likely to get what they want from Labour. Of course they could just not side with anyone which would just lead to at some point a vote of no confidence.

 

the sitting parliament has first crack of the whip in the case of a hung parliament so rather than wait for the tories to make a case, i bet labour chiefs are furiously haggling with lib dem counterparts to ease in a bargain. labour to rule until a pr system can be implemented for a new election in the next few years?

 

I was going by the exit poll mainly and refering to the tories & libdems.

 

First result Sunderland South.

Labour retain. By 11K

Turnout 55%

8.4% swing to the Tories

 

Turnout low but would expect that in a safe seat area for labour.

 

Yep. They're saying it agrees with their exit poll so far:forehead:

 

Exit poll revised. Two off the Tory total, two on the Lib Dem total. Uh oh Dave...seems a bit premature for you to have claimed victory on the basis of a guesstimate!

 

I'm crap with politics. Any simple explanation on how they work out these exit polls?

 

They went to 150 odd polling stations and asked people who they voted for.

I resume they then compared this with the last result for those areas, calculated a percentage difference and then applied that to all constituencies.

It's a pretty rough science though.

 

2nd result in 11.6% swing to Tory but Labour hold.

So far if this is extrapolated it will be a Tory government.

 

The overall swing to Con is 6% so far. Not enough for Dave.

 

8.2% isn't it?

What is the required swing anyway?

 

7% ??

 

3.9% On the basis of results from NI. Can't read anything in to it just yet.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

 

Lib Dems get first seat.

I'm quite enjoying watching this..

 

Best site by far for the results.

 

oh dear another evening of drinking leaves me none the wiser. cmon cameron youre better than clegg im brown, even intoxicated im sure of that.

 

I was still up for Jacquie Smith!

 

Watford result due at approximately 8:00. Likely to go conservative looking at the average swing.

 

I have seen the results on BBC but I am not sure I understand the consequence.

It seems the Lib dems had a bad election?

Party - Seats - Change - Vote %
Conservative _ 285 _ +87 _ 36.5
Labour _ 232 _-81 _ 28.7
Liberal Democrat _ 50 _ -6 _ 22.8

So the Conservatives have taken seats from both Labour AND the LibDems. I thought the LibDems were due a good election but this smells like defeat to me.

Now you have a hung parliament where no one has majority. What will happen next?

 

As things go on average the lib dems have dropped 10% to the Torys.

That is a terrible result considering Labours election performance and how well they were doing in the polls.

With a hung Parliament the reigning PM has the option to talk to other parties and try to cobble together a majority coalition, if this fails he must resign and the Queen will ask the majority party leader to do the same.

Whatever happens it's likely that another election will happen sooner or later, history shows this has been anywhere from 3 days to 27 months.

 

Recount in Watford

 

07:57 BBC staff Paddy O'Connell says Watford is to stage a mini-recount which will begin within the next fifteen minutes.

 

Beat me. Did you sleep last night Meister?