Christmas Werewolf - Day 3

Well it looks like we're getting no help from the seer.

So what are the odds of picking an evil to lynch out of what's left?

 

@miked2006 did you say whether a dead good would be shown as "very good" if either the seer or the guardian were to be taken out?

 

What's the consensus on that first message? An unhelpful Seer or the Alpha?

Second message going to be crucial today.

 

All dead are named good or evil

 

When is the latest the second message arrives?

 

I guess that makes sense with the Witness role. I would sincerely hope that if we lost the Seer and Witness last night (as unlikely as that may be) a back-up Seer would be brought into play.

 

First day that messager posted early, second day around lunchtime.

 

Do back up Seers get the results of the original Seer's viewings or are they starting from scratch? @miked2006

 

Well that’s me toast tonight…

 

The seer had these choices based on my post earlier ignoring HH24, Ashdon and Tom.

1. Cthulhu
2. Horace_goes_up_north
3. Optimistichornet
4. Otter
5. SkylaRose
6. Steve Leo Beleck
7. tonycotonstache
8. wfcSinatra

Any of these would have been a good option to view with about 50% chance of landing on an evil.

 

Eh? if there are 9 players left whose status isn't 100% confirmed and 4 are evil aren't the odds of randomly lynching an evil 4/9 so less than half?

Even if put Tom in as a very likely good, it's still 50/50.

 

If moog was the witness, then could his silliness yet vote for a random good other than who he suspected, could that be a reason a wolf had him removed?

My prime suspect is Opti.

I also am suspicious of tonycoton

 

I suggested Tom was good simply because he was targeted by a wolf on night one and although it is possible Tom could have been one of the wolves to kill norn, I don't buy it. Although circumstantial, even the guardian thought it was worth protecting Tom on night 1.

 

I’ve provided as much of the rules as I’d like to on this topic, here and in the sign up thread.

I have been aiming to, and will ensure, there are a minimum of 4 days play.

 

My rationale is that he's playing sensibly, using probability and focussing on what we know rather than speculation taking us down blind alleys. I presume that's why a wolf tried to take him out on day 1. Doesn't mean he's definitely good but the messages have left us scratching around for anything at all to help us outside the two confirmed good. He's been quite active throughout and I don't think a wolf would behave like that. Add to that a wolf targeting him and the Guardian protecting him (albeit night 1 when we don't know too much) means I think he's more likely than not good.

 

Right, we need to move the game along a bit otherwise it feels like we are sleepwalking into a pretty tame defeat.

Going to start asking some questions of players to see if that can take us further forward.

Skyla - why did you vote for yourself last night?

 

This was rather unfortunate, but I can assure you that this is not the case this time round. I think SLB summarised my gameplay and contributions quite well. I have been more active than in other games, motivated by a combination of wanting to more proactively help team good, and watching The Traitors!

 

I don't think it means sod all, just you can't put too much weight on it. Tom's play on Day 1 was enough that one wolf wanted to take him out. Since then I think his contributions and general game play have been more of a help than a hindrance with the scant concrete facts we have.

 

If we're going to play a game of "If I were the seer" I would have looked at you.

 

Anonymous message 2: (sent 13:12)

Glum festive greetings this time after last night's disaster and my viewing today where I viewed Cthulhu - rationale being a late voter for Steve Harrow yesterday after it made no difference. Unfortunately, I have not found an EVIL as he is also GOOD.

To confirm, I viewed Happy Hornet 24 on Day 1 and Ashdon on Day 2. Both are GOOD.

But... I think there's a chink of light for us. The wolf slipped up and called Ashdon "Ashton". Look back at the end of the play from yesterday and you will see that someone did the same thing.

For those that were thinking that a Seer is more likely to use a code, there are two within my messages too. I will spell one out (lyrics from Happy Christmas, War is Over).

For yellow and red ones.

CD

 

So Skyla now enters the frame. Is 'Ashton' just unfortunate auto-correct, or something more sinister?