Christmas Werewolf - Day 3

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by miked2006, Dec 7, 2022.

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Day 3 vote

  1. AshdonWFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Cthulhu

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Horace_goes_up_north

    27.3%
  5. Optimistichornet

    18.2%
  6. Otter

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. SkylaRose

    54.5%
  8. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. TomWatfordFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    So if the first is from a wolf are we thinking these double viewed confirmed goods aren't 100% then?
     
  2. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    If they are double viewed they are definitely good. If the seer and wolf have both declared them good then they are
     
  3. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    From my PoV, notwithstanding myself as I know I'm good, you other 10 IMO are:

    Good: HH24, Ashdon
    Probably good: Cthulhu, Tom
    Unknown: Horace, Opti, Skyla, SLB, tonycoton and sinatra.

    It stands to reason from those that 4 from those 6 are evil. I'm pinning my hopes it's Opti, admittedly I have nothing to suggest Horace, Skyla or SLB are good despite my list above.
     
  4. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    No I can’t explain why the seer would view Ashdon at all. The seer should never make random choices. To me it seems like a wolf message that is done to try and keep control of the day.

    I expect I might go today now and we will probably lose, but my suspicion is that Skyla wrote the first message and is a wolf. I also really don’t understand why she voted for herself yesterday, that’s the move a wolf makes when they are trying to avoid voting off good players when they don’t have to.
     
  5. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    So the first day I was late appearing, but if look back I actually submitted the second vote. Yesterday I also submitted the second vote, so I’m certainly not hiding.

    Look back at the threads and it’s abundantly clear? I’m not sure why you are making this up?
     
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    This is doing my head in. So, will revert to type and try and go through some scenarios to see if we can work out what is more likely:

    1. The first messages are the Seer. First day, random pick. Second day they then choose the person the wolf has speculatively named on Day 1 and get some criticism for this. But then they do the same thing again on Day 3, going for the next person the wolf has picked out of a hat in Ashdon from Day 2. What is the advantage to team good in doing that? I can't see it. Happy to hear from anyone that can find a different logic in it.

    2. First messages are the wolf. Day one, random pick. Day 2 they name the same person as the Seer did on Day 1, and repeat the trick on Day 3 with Day 2's viewings. What is the advantage of this for the evil team? It confirms beyond any doubt that Happy Hornet and Ashdon are good, making them easy picks for the wolves at night and also limits the named player pool. It's better for the village to have more people named in messages as it helps us work out which set of messages are from whom as we have to make choices in the lynchings. It also eliminates the chances of the wolf accidentally naming another wolf or the traitor as they are just repeating known good players.

    I think the call to make here is are the first set of messages more likely to be from a Seer that has had a bit of a stinker (sorry if that is the case) or from a wolf trying to limit the useful information to the villagers.

    Thoughts? Or corrections if I've got anything factually wrong.
     
  7. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I am convinced those messages are from the Wolf, which means Cthulhu has been named good by the Seer.
     
  8. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    So I see otter has gone and voted for me on basically evidence he has fabricated.

    If we don’t get a wolf at this viewing team good are stuffed basically and you go and do that? Startling.
     
  9. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    All seems factually correct. As you have laid it out, it does make it look more likely that the first set of messages is from the Seer. I'm sure Skyla will be delighted about that!
     
  10. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Oh, I was going the other way and thinking the first set of messages were more likely the wolf. What's convinced you it's the other way round?
     
  11. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I do understand why Tom is being viewed as more likely good than evil. But it is niggling me a bit that he wasn’t picked off by the wolves last night. He’d already been protected on Day 1 - as a player who was seemingly being very useful to Team Good with his stats, why didn’t any of the wolves target him last night?
     
  12. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    No it doesn’t?
     
  13. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Misread your message!! - I thought you were trying to say the first set was from the Seer. I'm not hugely drawn to either conclusion, and open to manipulation either way by others.
     
  14. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Im liking that logic
     
  15. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Surprised me too! My only thinking is that the wolves all thought another one would take me out, and they prioritised kills over finding out even more info about each other.
     
  16. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    It also means to me that Skyla is related to a certain bearded program seller at vicarage road
     
  17. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Reread SLB's message a third time and realised just how much I misinterpreted it first time round. I tend to agree the first message is from the wolf, second from the seer.
     
  18. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Programmes!!!!!!!!!
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  19. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    All the messages have been cryptic and beyond helpful to go on. Reason being we accidently lynched Harrow yesterday when he was good. Even Moog turned out to be good despite him playing a very confusing game. All we know for certain is that HH24 and Ashdon are good. I think Cthulhu is good also - he was viewed as good (all be in the same message that has tried to frame me as being evil due to a typo). Personally, I think message one today was from the Seer, however I do find it odd they repeated yesterday's message. Second one I believe to be a wolf's message. Even if it implicated Cthulhu as good - I had no solid reason to believe he was evil anyway. Otter, Steve, Horace, Tony, Tom could be either - no set proof either way. WfcSinatra hasn't posted much but I never hold that against a player due to being busy, even so he hasn't said anything that proves he is good or evil. He has at least posted. Even Opti, who voted for me and has had reservations about me, I still have no hard facts he is evil.
     
  20. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Just realised for what it's worth
    Day 3 26-2 =24
     
  21. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    I think I know who the Seer is...
     
  22. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    For the sake of team good, you need to keep it to yourself.
     
  23. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    I may be relatively inexperienced, but that much I do know!
     
  24. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Don't suppose you could work out who the three wolves and the traitor are too?

    Edit: quoted wrong post but you get my drift!
     
    Otter likes this.
  25. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I wouldn't hold that against Tom personally, the stats are useful sure, have they helped us get any closer to victory so far? Nope! His general gameplay smells Good up to now.
     
  26. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    So I have a hunch about the Seer and Guardian. HH24 and Ashdon are 100% good, and may or may not hold an aforementioned special role. I know I am good. We have 11 players, of which from my perspective between 3 and 5 are good. That means there are 4 evils from the remaining 6 to 8 players. 50% to 67% chance of getting an evil by lynching one of the players I don't have particular reason to believe are good.

    Edit: I also believe the second set of messages to be from the Seer, so Cthulhu is good. Therefore there are between 4 and 6 players I believe to be good, leaving 4 evils from the remaining 5 to 7 players. The odds are getting better and better.
     
  27. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    As long as a) your hunches are right and b) people are seeing the game the same way as you!
     
  28. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Of course! Now I just have to try and convince fellow good, without giving anything away. Easier said than done!
     
  29. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    So who has been silent today?
     
  30. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    And if it turns out that the second set of messages is from the wolf, you have well and truly fooled me.
     
  31. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Moog
     
  32. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Only Ashdon but he's been confirmed as good, so that doesn't really help us either way.
     
  33. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Sorry - I am in the office today and it’s been a pretty busy one so far.

    The “Ashton” spelling always jumps off the page at me, so that’s what peaked my interest in message 1. Message 2 clearly has already alluded to it, but this was used yesterday too.

    My inclination was that whoever “viewed” me yesterday was wolfie, but then I don’t really understand why I was viewed again today by the Seer if that was actually the case. Seems like a bit of a wasted view to me when we had a decent probability (thanks to all you mathematicians out there) of striking an Evil with a random view today.

    Sadly I think we are sleepwalking to an Evil win in this one as we once again are pi$$ing into the wind with who to lynch.
     
    SkylaRose likes this.
  34. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    As we have nothing concrete to go on and so we’re at the “throwing wild accusations around” stage, I will throw Horace’s name in the ring as a player who has been quieter than usual this game.
     
  35. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    When does voting close?
     
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