Christmas Werewolf - Day 3

The candles had burned out in Happy’s tavern after hours of drinking.

Dom woke up and needed a piss. He walked to the toilet, stepping over bodies slumped on the floor.

He got to the toilet, pushed it open and locked it behind him, when he heard a light tapping on the window.

“Psst” said the voice.

Dom groggily approached the window before SMASH. A wolfs claw came through the glass and tore out his throat.

Dom was Good.

Burnsy was stumbling home, vodka bottle in hand, singing a shanty he didn’t know the words to. He turned a corner to see a dark figure watching him from a bench.

“You’re evil “ shouted Moog. “Get away!”

Burnsy quickened his pace but heard Moog shriek “get back you beast! You ******! Youuaarghhh”

Burnsy tried to run but he tripped on a curb and fell into a bin. He looked up to see a smiling creature licking his lips, before he was devoured hungrily.

Moog was Good

Burnsy was Good

The guardian waited elsewhere, uninterrupted.

 

Well, not exactly a great night. Surprised I am still here. Would be interesting to look back at yesterday's thread to see if there is any subtle wolf coordination.

 

Definitely time to drop the stats formulas now Tom and Skyla! Statistically my maths is telling me this 100000%!

I've got a well needed day off today so I'm going to be doing some catch up on days 1 and 2 myself.

 

Well, that's a disaster.

Absolutely essential we find a wolf today (don't think even traitor will help that much at this stage) otherwise numbers will be against us - unless we get lucky and wolves choose same kills or Guardian can block some. The only positive from last night is that the Seer is still alive.

If we don't get a wolf we could be down to five villagers and three wolves by this time tomorrow. Today feels like the day this will be won or lost.

Seer's viewing essential but also agree with Tom that we need to look back at voting patterns/timings etc - we have to remember that two wolves know each other and a traitor knows all three.

 

Horrible, weird thing is I had suspicions of dom, so what do I know?

Usually the write up says who the guardian protected even if it was unsuccessful.

 

Oh bloody hell. What a rubbish night. We're in a right mess!

 

Two things that stand out from both days.

1. Moog playing chaos theory didn't help at all but at least it got things going! Crazy scamp.
2. No one so far has tried to really crack the coding on the first messages. I've played three games and this is something we all need to go back to ahead of the third messages later.

 

There are 11 players left with 4 evils, the seer's chance of getting an evil is a lot better than day 1.

Of the 11, the seer being one of them, has 10 to look from.

We know HH24 is confirmed as good.
I also reckon Tom is at least 90% good mainly because he was targeted first night and two other wolves went for norn (it doesn't discount that Tom could have been one of those two but I doubt it)
Ashdon is probably good, even though it was likely to be the wolf's message yesterday, I don't think at the early stage the alpha would have deliberately named another evil.

So the seer has a 4 in 7 chance of finding evil today, hopefully a wolf because finding the traitor won't really help.

 

We need an evil view today after that. Losing 4 goods in one night is as bad as it can get.

 

Blimey….what a terrible night! We really need an evil view today otherwise this thing is going to drop faster than my girlfriends undies at a one direction concert!

I have my suspicions from yesterday, personally I would like the seer to view Skyla.

 

Agree that Tom's overall play suggests that he's good. We don't have much to go on but his posts have been pretty helpful and non speculative. Definitely not playing like a traitor and would have to be an extremely bold wolf to play that way.

Out of interest, why do you think the coded messages are the Seer's? As I said yesterday, I'm inclined to agree but just didn't understand the viewing.

 

Assuming on days 1 & 2 the first message was the seer's, then there appears to be 3 parts to the code. The first part would be easy for a wolf to replicate with any old bible verse, the other two parts:

Day 1: N5-2
Day 2 N18-6

are obscure enough without the third part

Day 1: RG6TGR47
Day 2: GP7DRW51

I've said in previous games the more obscure the seer's code the more difficult it is for anyone to understand, let alone the wolf, so they can do what they like in their messages with no suspicions.

 

Might be more simple
Day 1 5-2 = 3
Day 2 18-6 = 12
Multiples of 3?
Three wolves warning?
God even I'm on the maths now!

 

Not a chance anyone could have predicted 3 kills last night though! If they could I hope they play the lottery tonight!

 

On my phone but can someone copy all the messages together in one post? Ta

 

Anonymous message 1 (sent: 11:43)

Good Morning fellow Christmas Vìllagers,

On the first day of Christmas Werewolf my viewinggave to me, steve harrow is GOOD.
On the second day of Christmas Werewolf my viewinggave to me, HappyHornet24 is GOOD.
On the third day of Christmas Werewolf my viewinggave to me, AshdonWFC is GOOD.
(and into day 3!).

Ezekiel 21:5 | N26-2 | GB7MPL23

Seer's aside: Same as yesterday, Ashton is now in the clear. Now two confirmed good.

 

Based on my post earlier, an extremely peculiar viewing.

Excluding themselves and the previously named, they had a 4/7 chance for finding an evil if they chose someone new (or 3/7 if Ashdon was indeed evil).

This is useless information as all it does is clear Ashdon.

 

Why would the seer view Ashdon? I don’t get it at all.

 

Yeah, really don't like that play at all. We NEED to find evils. Not buying that they are the seer.

 

Agreed. Plus the guardian can't protect both supposed 100% confirmed goods tonight. Puzzling play indeed.

 

Either the Seer is playing a very odd game or the Alpha is worried about accidentally naming an evil so is just confirming people that the Seer has already viewed as good so they can be targeted at night by the other wolves.

 

Had a look through yesterday to see if the people killed did anything to make themselves a target:

DOM
"Found the other wolf!", in response to Otter's message about BODMAS
"I thing Happy is right, we need to consider the late voters yesterday who voted for WaS"
Voted for Opti

BURNSY
Conversation with me about why I voted for him on day 1
Calls out Sinatra and Ashdon for not messaging, although Sinatra had messaged once by that point
Voted for Steve Harrow

MOOG
"I'm going for Opti today" ("lol only because I outlive you more often that not", replies Opti)
"Siri is telling me to vote for @TomWatfordFC. Make of that what you will"
Voted for Otter
Otter, Steve Leo Beleck, and Horace_goes_up_north all voted for Moog

Anything there that piques anyone's interest?

 

I voted for moog because he voted for me! Plus I quite pertinently pointed out that he was not being helpful to team good.

 

So on my working there are 11 players left. 4 evil, 7 good. If we lynch a good player tonight then we will be left with 10 players, 4 evil, 6 good. If the three wolves all manage to kill a different good player then we will be down to 3 good players and evil will still have 4. So evil will win. Therefore it is imperative that we get an evil player today.

The seer must know this, that makes the first message very bizarre. As I said earlier I definitely would have viewed Skyla today!

 

Moog wasn't being helpful to anyone!