I've rerun all the permutations & pleased to confirm that statistically it is more likely that Cassetti's Beard will get a girlfriend by 2021 than us go down this season. That's right. It's never going to happen.
Given saints and stoke need runs of results that they've not shown any sign of pulling off so far this season, i think were safe. Even if saints win 5 games to overhaul us, palace, brighton, huddersfield etc also need to get results. It was less likely last season with 5 or 6 left, but some people got in a twist. It would be nice to put in a good performance and result here and there though. A point at man utd or spurs would be nice, and a win or 2 from htfc, cpfc or nufc. Richarlison to have a good game, defending a set piece confidently, chalobah getting a few minutes and kabasele returning on good form would also be good to see.
This is getting boring but is again a great example of someone not reading what's written and not understanding maths. Its unlikely we will get relegated, no-one has said they expect us to be relegated. If as I hypothesized, we lose to HTFC and CP, it will become a little less likely, but still unlikely If that happens it is highly possible that we could only get another point or so this season If that happens, the teams below us are very likely to move past us, certainly WHU & Brighton for reasons given as they would only need one more win than us. You keep mentioning that these teams needs to win 50% of their remaining games, but that wouldn't be the case under the above scenario, that would take them way past us. Its possible (but again unlikely) that Soton will win 3 games against the poorer sides they are facing. Swansea would only need 6 points from their remaining 6 games to pass us on GD. So hopefully a win in our next 2 games will all but put the above to bed. But 2 defeats and it will be interesting to see how the gap looks with 4 tough games to play for us, remembering that many below us also have a game in hand on us as things stand.
Even if we draw at Huddersfield people will still post result combinations that relegate us. It’s 0.5% shot that we go down. If we draw at Huddersfield it will be 0.25%. This happened last year as well.
I thought Southampton would get out of it but looking at their fixtures they look favourites for the drop which is amazing with the quality they have in their squad. Their remaining games are Chelsea Bournemouth Leicester Everton Swansea Man City
is that really that hard? Especially considering Chelsea have imploded and Man City found out. I expect a gabbiadini inspired southampton to get 18 points from those games.
Only 2 tough games there and Chelsea are in 2nd gear at the moment. I think its entirely possible, say 30%, that they will win 3 of those 6.
From their last games Southampton need a minimum of two wins and four draws to overtake us, on the assumption we lose our last five. If they win three and draw two (on the assumption that Citeh are not going to lose their last match of the season - even away) , we only need 3 points from our last 15. If Southampton overtake us by the end of the season Mark hughes will deserve his £1 million bonus and Gracia will be packing his bags. Let's see where we are at the end of April.
They would need 9 points ie 3 wins and 3 defeats if we lose 5 as their GD will be better than ours. Unlikely, as is the prospect of us not picking up a single point.
We'll beat Huddersfield and everyone can stop shitting their pants over the possibility of relegation. We've never been in danger of relegation in our three seasons in the Premier League so far. Last season was the closest and even then the teams in the bottom three had no chance of catching us despite our dreadful form.
We have the joint 4th lowest points total in this calendar year... And that was after an awful run from the end of November!
Fear not, South Today has just announced that Gabbiadini has signed for Bournemouth and won't play again this season. We're saved.
Isn't that a 35% chance that you will **** your pants? Or a 100% chance you'll **** 35% of your pants?
I, for one, really hope we do get relegated now, just to shut up all the know it alls on here. Let's face it it would be more fun. Prodl, Mariappa, Holebas and Deeney, maybe even Gray, would all be decent in the championship. It's 50/50 whether we go down. We either will or we won't. End of story.
Just googled this in a blind panic and am relieved to learn this is a rotten lie.........but devastated to learn that he's most likely to be going to Lazio. All hope is gone. Life isnt worth living anymore.
Well, the good news is that we are back out to 250/1 (0.4%) with skybet. When the difference between your estimated odds and the odds offered is a factor of 70 times higher, you would be bonkers not to put a little punt money on it. £100 would get you a decent new car to ease the pain of relegation.
Interesting guesstimate. I updated my over the top season predictor and we have a 0.6% chance of going down if it is accurate (6 times in 1,000 seasons). We may not have done great recently but every game Southampton have failed to win of late makes us safer and safer.
Fear not. The wise heads on the forum have confirmed its impossible for Soton to win 3 games from 6 given they have been poor so far this season. If they were to win today it just means they can only win a max of one if their last 5 games.
This Chelsea side are a disgrace. All this talent but when they think they can't win a title they give up.
We're safe as houses. I'm told this every week and if you even think otherwise, you'll wet the bed. Be warned.
TBH they have the ability to be a top 10 side .. just shows how they have under performanced that they are in the bottom 3 really.
