Well I've put a few more pounds on us to go down. Some places were 200-1.... about 49% of me hopes we do go down. I've got a tenner on us at 50-1 and now £3 on at 200-1. I mean I love watford but......
Ah the annual brain fart from those who assume that anyone who accepts that we aren't mathematically safe means we must be consumed by worrying about relegation. Can't you just accept that there's a small % change we might still go down though very unlikely ? I'd have happily taken being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 having played one game more, after 33 games, if offered it before the season started.
Sorry, I haven't got the will to explain it to you. Surprises me you say maths is your job, if that is the scenario you are focused on.
You've recognised your error and now want to take 2 steps back. Understandable. Never great to criticise someone's maths before throwing out some meaningless erroneous numbers. ps I should have added, not only are BHA, WHU and Swansea only 2, 3 and 5 points behind but they all also have a game in hand.
I know very little about counting but the original Greek for 'learn' or 'student' translates as 'mathematics'.
Everyone knows that we are not mathematically safe and that we could technically still be relegated. Everyone with a bit of common sense and appreciation for how football works and how poor the sides in the bottom 3/4 are knows that it is never going to happen in a million years, meaning that discussing it every year and going around in circles is completely tedious and a total waste of time.
But hang on, I thought all the experts on here had worked out that this was the year that we'd need at least 45 points to be safe, because it was so tight at the bottom?
I'm not, but if it really needs more explaining; You seem to have focused & cited the most basic reasoning. Does it occur to you that even if all 5 teams below us win 50% of their remaining games (& therefore close the gap on us), that in itself nullifies Southampton's winning results assuming they win all the games you mentioned before this season ends , this keeps them anchored to 18th or at least below us? On top of that a few of those below us still play each other (for instance Palace/Brighton) further nullifying results. The dog fight scrap is below us now.
Swap "never going to happen in a million years" to "very unlikely" and we'd agree. I'd say 5% ie 1/20 today. Hopefully 3pts against HTFC or CP will mean we are all but safe.
WBA are toast. I think we can all agree on that. Stoke have to win 4 out of 5 games to overtake us - which isn't going to happen. That leaves one relegation place left. Do people really believe that Palace (31 points from 33 games played), Southampton (28 points from 32 games played), Huddersfield (32 points from 33 games played) and Swansea (32 points from 32 games played) are all going to put such a run of form together that all of them will finish above us? Not to mention West Ham. It's going to WBA, Stoke and Southampton or Huddersfield (probably Huddersfield, I'd say) for the drop.
Every one of those are better teams than Southampton based on performance this season; you wouldn't expect Southampton to particularly get anything from any of them except Swansea, and Swansea have still performed better this season than Southampton have. The fact that Muff were in League One a few years ago doesn't make it any more probable that they will lose to Southampton in their remaining fixture this season.
The bookies disagree. The only bookmaker still taking bets on us staying up is bet365 who are offering odds of 1/1500.
Odds range between 81-1 to 201-1 per oddschecker ie very unlikely rather than never going to happen in a million years.
We are all wasting our time on this forum, but some forms of time-wasting or less tedious and more fun than others. Filling in my tax form is utterly important and not a waste of time; it is, however, completely tedious.
Realistically, it's probably the only fixture they've got left where they might expect to get any points
Yeah, but you get 6 points for winning a fixture against relegation rivals, so we’re fooked. They will move to 38 points.
Had we won last 2 games we'd be closer to Arsenal than Southampton. Our performance on Saturday was not bad and I feel we should have 4 points from 2, we're not a lost cause. Even a draw on Saturday psychologically wouldn't have been bad. I don't think we'll lose all our final games, not saying we'll win either. I believe we are safe. Either way it's disappointing the season has ended like this again. It's like groundhog day but like last season we've never been in proper danger (just our own perceived danger). Finishing 17th last season does not mean we were in danger if you look at points gained and when
@The undeniable truth No response from you re the explanation you requested & took the time to give you...did you take 2 steps back? Interested to know what it is you do? I.e when you said you do this for a job?
There are probably 8 or 10 games where the teams below us have all got to play each other. There's going to be enough teams taking points off each other for us not to worry We're safe
So, we have to get three points from five games to emulate last year. If we get a point at Huddersfield, we would still be looking for a win against Palace, before the likely defeat against Spurs. Let's say we lose all three. Our last home game will be against a Newcastle team already on the beach. Before we end our season with a defeat in the rain at Old Trafford. Even if we don't need to beat Newcastle to avoid relegation I would expect us to do so and match last seasons 40 points. I doubt we will match or beat the 45 of year 1 with 3 wins from five games.
Forza, surely you’re not doing that today! If so, a swotty star for the first tax return of the year.
