I agree Keighley – the lack of ability and courage of the opposition parties to formulate a coherent alternative is a major problem but they are still using yesterday's tactics. They think that if they do put something together when an election is called it will cut through, but it won't, because the newspapers that instinctively support the Conservatives will roll out the well-worn and successful tactics. The problem is, the media is rigged. The Tory government is in meltdown, absolute meltdown. Literally everyone in the country is already poorer as a result of their policies and the big three, the Sun, Mail and Telegraph looked the other way this morning. Nothing on their front pages. Sun – Strictly Come Dancing heartbreak story Mail – something about Camilla's bejewelled hat Telegraph – some old mince about a row brewing over the coronation The Express goes for good old diversion instead of distraction and blames the Bank of England. Say what you like about the waning influence of the print media – it is literally dying before our eyes – and yet it still wields a disproportionate influence. It sets the agenda on talk shows, for a start. The repeated wilful attempt to look the other way is astonishing. The opposition can come up with whatever it wants but the headlines are already written. It won't matter.
You are always going to scare someone off. It’s impossible to please everyone. I’m saying for the party of organised labour that should not be the working class, the biggest class by far, the one in most need, the one Labour was formed to represent. Labour will get plenty of middle class votes already because of its progressive politics. Chasing a fickle segment of less progressive middle class votes is the road to defeat. It’s the sort of terrible politics that had Labour promising austerity between 2010-15 to appear financially competent.
Gillian Tett of the FT responds succinctly on C4 News to Rees Mogg’s denial that the mini-budget caused the current economic turmoil. https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1580281080380211200?s=46&t=DUyeq1G9A2fnJOjdMxvTdw
That's just it, I don't think the working class is the biggest class any more, but I will admit that I don't have the sociological data to support my hunch...
Do you actually live in Hogwarts? I mean if the working class isn’t the biggest class just how productive are those working class folk? Or is it the middle classes who now work in factories, wipe arses, tarmac roads, fillet fish, build houses etc etc.
There aren't any factories left, Thatcher got rid of them all. I appreciate that this isn't very scientific, and it's a few years old, but Wiki has 14% traditional working class and 15% precariat. If that is correct it hangs on whether you consider 'new affluent workers' and 'emergent service sector' to be working or middle class. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_class_in_the_United_Kingdom#Great_British_Class_Survey
They are all working class other than the elite, the established middle and the technical middle. That’s 63% by that study. Yes, not all have a flat cap and a whippet, but the complexities of that 63% nor their disagreements or different cultures change the fact that they work for a living, usually for others and don’t have significant capital. Labour needs their votes far more than a greater proportion of the middle class pie. And don’t forget that certain areas are more working class than others and that will be where Labour can win.
Given the most likely outcome based on odds on the next election are a labour majority or minority labour can very easily and factually campaign that a vote for the Tories will lead to them having to form a coalition with the SNP. A vote for Tories therefore gives the SNP more power and leverage over the oil reserves
Latest - reversal of Corporation Tax rise cut will be reversed. Kwarteng "will be told" when he gets back from US. I bet Cleverly feels wonderful after going out this morning to assure us that the rise would be cancelled.
Wouldn't it be nice to have people in charge that could get things right first time? I'd really appreciate it.
OK, but "the complexities of the 63% and their diffferent cultures" is IMO, profoundly relevant. There are very different needs, aspirations, constraints, goals depending upon where one fits within the social structure. Frankly I think it is much harder for Labour to design a set of policies which appeals to enough of that 63% for them to win than it is for the Tories to do so for the remaining 37%.
The Tories don’t have nearly anything like that remaining 37%. A great number of the middle classes won’t vote Tory. Just look at the academics you know. Labour can certainly design policies that appeal to enough of the rest. After all, that’s what the Tories managed last time.
As a middle-aged, middle class, middle manager from Middle England, I could never vote Tory. In the constituency where I live, I can either waste my vote with Labour or the LibDems. However, I will only vote for a party which has electoral reform and rapid re-integration with the EU as explicit policies. SKS appears negative on both, so it's another wasted vote for the LibDems.......
Labour cannot afford to go into the next election under an explicit banner of EU reintegration. It would be electoral suicide. I’m confident Labour will take a cooperative approach to the EU, reduce the conflict and then, if they survive, work on restoring the benefits of membership by accepting rules. In decades to come another generation can decide if we want a seat at the table.
In case anyone is in any doubt about the ludicrous prospectus ‘taking back control’ was when run by a bunch of Tories, Nationalists and bankers.
Disagree. Rejoin is now at 60% if don't knows are excluded. Labour voters are something like 83% rejoin. The stay-outs are almost all die hard Tories or misguided red-wallers who are not going back to Labour anyway. If you present an argument that rejoining CU &SM will immediately result in a 10% boost to sterling, immediately bringing prices, and hence inflation, and hence interest rates, and hence rents down, then who but an utter ****wit would be against?; especially as the driving motivation behind a lot of brexit sentiment was about immigration based on racism, and those clowns now see more people coming in from Asia and Africa than ever came in from the EU.
You might be right, but why? The Tory party is broken, and barring a miracle, seems resigned to defeat. The Brexiteers have gone very quiet. Polling seems to suggest that the majority are now negative about the Brexit project. Is it just the right wing media?
Yes, I think it is fast becoming a vote winner. Obviously not all the current economic issues are down to Brexit but it's a definite factor. The electorate have had a taste of economic chaos. Rejoining the SM (or perhaps even full membership) with the uplift in growth and stability that would bring may be an easier sell to voters than it was just a few weeks ago.
Given that the older members of the referendum electorate had a higher propensity to vote leave, ignoring everything else, there may now be a natural remain majority due to demographics. Since the referendum c. 3.5M people have died in the UK. A shift of 700,000 from leave to remain would have kept us in the EU.
There was likely a Remain majority in the country even when the vote happened. It's just that, as with any election, the younger voters didn't show up in force and the older voters did. Turnout was only 60% for 18-24 band, for example, with a 75% Remain bias. In contrast, 65-74 age band had a 82% turnout with a 66% Leave bias. If the 18-44 age groups had turned out on the same level as the 65-74 age group, I suspect Brexit would never have happened even back then. Factor in the demographic changes you've already mentioned on top of the buyer's remorse the electorate now seems to have according to polling, and I suspect a rejoin campaign would likely win very easily now.
That’s exactly my point. The Tories are utterly busted right now. The only thing that could reanimate its corpse is a threat to Brexit. The polls people are quoting look very favourable, but they don’t tell the whole story. People are much less ready to admit they made a mistake than others on here imagine and that feeling would solidify in the face of a rejoin campaign. Fellow remainers, sorry, but we got beaten soundly twice over Brexit. As recently as 2019. The Labour Party was torn apart from both itself and core sections of its voters. Why would you pick that scab when it’s all going so well? Get Labour in and fix the current relationship. Realign in a cooperative and friendly fashion and the EU will react very positively.
Widely reported that KK is gone........Truss will probably announce that she is combining the roles of PM and CotE
2pm. I'll be with the Sheredes year 1 classes. I'll ask their advice. They're good at jumping up and down and asking to visit the lavatory so good signs. Larry's having a groom in preparation for his new role as chancellor.
Well, yes and no. We are hugely blown along by economic winds and generally overestimate the impact our own government has (China opening up had a much bigger impact on our prosperity than anything UK governments have taken credit for over the last 40 years). As an importing country, we were always going to be hugely impacted by Ukraine and Covid. I'd agree that all of the difference (and probably more) of the damage between us and equivalent countries like France are caused by self-harm policies introduced by the Tories, especially Brexit and its impact on the pound and recent undemocratic and ideological moves by a desperate government without a mandate. But you can't pretend that we don't essentially live in a 2 party system, due to FPTP. If you put someone awful as your candidate in an election that doesn't represent the views of the public, you have played a significant role in convincing swing voters to vote for what you believe is the worse party, especially if a far better candidate is available. To use an old South Park analogy, sometimes when you only get to vote on whether you’d prefer the election of a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich, one might end up opting for the former.
