Christmas Werewolf - Day 2

So both have confirmed Happy is good meaning she must be?

Wolf has named either me or Ashdon as good then?

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It's good that we've got another 2 early messages today.

I've only scanned the morning's chat but I can't see anything that helps too much other than at least the first message seems to confirm that HH24 is good.

 

I agree. Not sold on the logic for viewing Ashdon.

Edit: having said that, has anyone had much luck in previous games pretending to be inactive/forget, but actually be the alpha/seer? Because it's a play that can go either way (more likely to be lynched, but survive and more likely to be seen as good).

 

Would agree on timings/style but I don't understand the viewing. Seems a waste to go for someone just to confirm beyond reasonable doubt when it's pretty likely from their play yesterday that they're good? It's better to try and find a wolf, no?

 

Might be being dense but I don't understand your second paragraph!

Edit: can you try and explain it?

 

Said it yesterday, there was no way Happy would do what she did at that time if she was evil. There was only one vote (I think) at the time she voted for herself and invited others to too. Would've been a crazy move as a wolf or traitor as people could easily have jumped on it as an easy option to take out someone who has suggested they didn't mind being lynched.

At that point, she was pretty much confirmed good in my eyes so feels like a waste to use the viewing that way today.

 

Personally I think there's no point thinking over previous games. Each one plays out differently surely plus newbies bringing added chaos and confusion. I'm three games in and still completely clueless as to spotting who is and isn't contributing.

 

lol only because i outlive you more often than not.

 

Still trying to figure out if perhaps TomWatfordFC was trying to encourage a pile-on on me with his vote yesterday…he said it was a done randomly but I wonder why you’d actively do something different from other people rather than just go with the crowd on Day 1?

 

Sure, it was a messy paragraph.

In this game, for example, Ashdon posted late, claiming to have forgotten the game had started. If we take that at face value, Ashdon can't be the Seer or the Alpha. Evil are less likely to target Ashdon as they want to elimite the Seer. Good may lynch Ashdon on day 1 due to inactivity, but if he survives the lynching, Ashdon is then viewed as slightly more good as Ashdon is unlikely to be the Alpha.

What I am wondering is if in any previous games, an evil player, in particular the alpha, has used this as a tactic to reduce suspicion. Ordinarily I would expect that the Alpha and Seer post in the thread at random times relative to the messages, but an outlier as big as Ashdon is quite noticeable.

Anyway, that is a lot of waffle that doesn't really constitute much of a hunch, or anything for that matter.

 

it does seem like a strange thing to do, but then people can also be accused on being evil based on hiding themselves in a crowd. would an evil player really put themselves so apparently? imo would be an odd move.

 

I could open the Alexa app and give timestamped proof that I asked for a random number between 1 and 17, and she chose 2, but that wouldn't really be in the spirit of the game. I had nothing to go on, and I wasn't the only person to vote randomly. I have no opinion of you in this game either way relative to my opinions of everyone else.

 

Fair enough - but you will also surely accept why it has/had me wondering.

 

Of course. As Opti says though, it would be a particularly odd move for an evil player to make.

 

hmm, this might have persuaded me that I should look at @Cthulhu

 

Here's where I am:

- HH24 is confirmed as Good. Both messagers have said she is so she has definitely been viewed by the Seer. There's no role where she'd show as good whilst actually being evil.

- The Seer has viewed one of Steve Harrow and Ashdon, with the wolf randomly naming the other.

- Both the Guardian and one wolf chose Tom last night. Suspect that's because of his use of probability and wanting to protect/take out someone that's approaching the game logically.

- We have two clear pairs of messages. I get that other people think the viewing of HH24 makes sense but to me it really didn't. But that might be a bit of confirmation bias as I'd already concluded she was good yesterday.

I don't think spending time trying to crack the codes takes us any further. They're not there to give clues, they're for later in the game when the Seer needs to prove their message trail.

 

the great butting heads!

 

Siri is telling me to vote for @TomWatfordFC

Make of that what you will

 

I agree it's unlikely that Ashdon is
the Seer or Alpha and don't think it's likely he's gone for a mega bluff like that.

But I don't think it tells us much (anything) in relation to other potential evil roles?

 

Agreed. Prior to the previous game, I had assumed inactive players were almost certainly good, but Harrow's role suggests that assumption may not be as concrete as I had thought.

 

To elaborate on Happy's answer, all we know is that one of them is 100% good, the other is unknown i.e. 11/15 * 100 % good. The likelihood of both being good is high though.

 

Agree with this. Useful to have had Happy cleared but viewing someone else would have been more useful. In fairness, at some point if they haven't already, the wolf will name someone good as evil (usually guesswork but possibly not now) or someone evil as good.

Re the codes, agree for future use and maybe even a Seer outing themselves but there could yet be some clue.

 

Why "only" 99% sure about Happy? What's the logic behind the 1% doubt? Genuine question in case I've missed something.

As already pointed out, the Seer has viewed Ashton or me - not both.

 

So where are we with the lynching then?

Go with one of the named?

Otherwise it's going to be another random mess like day 1.

 

Sorry, to clarify one of the named 2 minus HH24.

 

Until anyone gets named as evil, someone blunders, or something unexpected happens (especially at night), we are left clutching at straws. Going for one of the named players (not HH24) might be our best shot for info.

 

What's the time tonight for cut off? Is it 7pm again?

 

I'll try to shut the village at 6pm today.