Christmas Werewolf - Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by miked2006, Dec 6, 2022.

?

Day 2 vote

  1. AshdonWFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Burnsy

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Cthulhu

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. domthehornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Optimistichornet

    6.7%
  8. Otter

    13.3%
  9. SkylaRose

    13.3%
  10. steve harrow

    46.7%
  11. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. TomWatfordFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. wfcmoog

    20.0%
  15. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    From what I can make out there is no way that Happy cant be on team good. It is worth thinking about though, as it is a common evil team tactic to spread misinformation.

    However, Skyla is new to the game so it is probably more likely to be a genuine error. It cannot however be discounted.
     
  2. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    We're basically in the same position as yesterday with two players named as good and we can't be certain which pair of messages is the Seer.

    So lynch a named player and hope this tells us something or a random?

    I haven't checked back but presume everyone has posted today?
     
  3. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Alexa, who should I vote for in werewolf?

    Sorry, I don't know that one ‍♂️
     
  4. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    We can easily which messages pair up - but don't know who posted them.

    Ashdon and I have a 50% chance of being definitively good which is higher than someone not viewed. So what is the point in that?
     
  5. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    The point is that if you or Ashdon are evil, we would know which messages are from the seer.
     
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Yes, two clear pairs of messages but not sure which is Seer and which is Alpha.

    HH24 is confirmed good so 4/14 evil players remain so a random pick out of everyone means about 70% likely to hit a good player I think?

    My maths isn't good enough to work out further conditional probability on the basis that you and Ashdon have been named (if that's even possible)! Can anyone else help?
     
  7. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Fair argument although if show as good then plays into evil's hands. Obvs I know I'm good but then I would say that!
     
  8. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    15 players left in - 3 are wolves. 15 = 12.
    100 / 12 = 8.30.
    Percentage wise and rounding down, each pick has just under a ten percent chance of being a wolf.
     
  9. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    You need to take into account that I have been confirmed as not a wolf/evil in your numbers though
     
  10. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    of the two who would you go for? like me ashdon seemed to forget the game started yesterday until quite late in the day. both messages were in by the time made our initial posts, so that presumably reduces the chances of ashdon being evil as he could only be the beta, gamma wolf or the traitor. steve harrow however could be the alpha, beta, gamma or traitor?

    have i got that right?
     
  11. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I'm very confused by this maths!
     
  12. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    3 wolves but conveniently ignoring the traitor?
     
  13. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    yep you are indisputably good at this point. i really hope the guardian protects you tonight happy, as i always think your instincts are very good and often correct in this game.
     
  14. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Yes good point - 4 evils to take into account. So 4 evils from 14 players.
     
  15. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Day 2 and all we have are more stats and less solid foundations to work with.
     
  16. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    What's the maths Tom?
     
  17. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Not a peep from Sinatra or Ashdon yet today…
     
  18. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    He’s currently asking Alexa.
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  19. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Did message once to be fair, don't have much else to add right about now apart from wishing we had signed the younger Amrabat, what a player.
     
  20. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Apologies - I skimmed over and didn’t see it.
     
  21. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I don’t think steve harrow is likely to be the Alpha, as I don’t think the Alpha would name themselves in a message on Day 1. He could be one of the other evil characters, though, if the message naming him was the wolf’s as the wolf had no clue who was good or evil. Of course, the wolf’s message could have been the one naming me as good.
     
  22. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Always bloody evil those two lol
     
  23. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Alrighty then.

    14 players
    4 Wolves

    14 - 4 = 10.
    [ 40% of 100% ] = 40.00

    40.00 / 10.00 = 4.00.

    Every player votes once, with only a 1 in 4 chance of choosing wolf.

    So; 4 in 4 100
    3 in 4 is 50
    2 in 4 is 25
    Half of 25 is = 12.50%
    Roughly a 13% chance of getting a wolf in each pick.

    EDIT: Sorry - it's just under 25%, I forgot the 75.
     
  24. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Crikey, what a shocker of an afternoon to come back to catch up and find I have been named.

    Off the back of two named good’s again, it sounds like I’m probably toast as I was more inclined to think message 1 and it’s attempted codification would be a Seer.
     
  25. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Unfortunately, there are no clues to suggest which of the wolves know each other’s identities. If the Alpha is one of them, I would be very reluctant to vote for Ashdon as - if that message was from the wolf - I definitely think the wolf would avoid naming a known fellow wolf in a message so early in the game - being named puts you in the spotlight at this stage, whether you’re named good or evil.
     
  26. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Lol defamation of character! I was a Mason in the game just gone :(
     
  27. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I have to go and pick up my daughter (better not forget again like I did during the last game), but the question for me is whether I vote for either steve or ashdon or whether I take a punt in going for a.n.other. The only way we learn anything by going for a “named” player is if the wolf has got unlucky and named an evil player good and we get lucky and pick that one.

    If I decide to go for a.n.other, I will probably choose someone who voted for WAS yesterday, but who voted late (ie once their vote didn’t make too much of a difference)
     
  28. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I can confirm that I also don’t think it would be likely to go for a mega bluff like that.

    In my mind I am instinctively thinking I’ve probably been named here by a Wolf in order to just enhance the levels of confusion and lack of direction we currently have that follows a “Good” Seer view.

    Having been Seer only a couple of weeks back, my mind still seems set in that whole: what should I do if this message comes, or what if they do this…
     
  29. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Sorry! I was busy doing other sorts of maths (stuff that is barely comprehendible by myself). Far less exciting than werewolf that's for sure. Looks like Skyla has stolen my job!
     
    domthehornet likes this.
  30. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Nah that was just my own calculations. I'm really interested to see yours. :)
     
  31. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Let’s see how far you can take this.

    I want to see effective implementation of BIDMAS, and potentially some reference to sin/cos/tan, and some trigonometry to tell enable us to triangulate how far it is from the village pub to the site of Norn’s murder and WAS’s unfortunate lynching.
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  32. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    It's BODMAS, sounds like someone is trying to cause confusion like a traitor would!
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  33. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I learnt it as BODMAS, with the O meaning Order, my son learnt BIDMAS, with the I as Index.
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  34. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    A squared + B squared = 2 hours remaining.
     
  35. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    Found the other wolf!
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page