£10 into £2000 in 365 days (Bets thread)

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by reids, Aug 2, 2013.

  1. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Day 39:

    Brilliant performance by Brazil wins us our only bet of the day. Australia never really threatened. Brazil were unstoppable, immense pass and move that just over-whelmed the Oz defence, sorta wish that we’d got on the handicaps as there were some tasty prices out there, but after the performance against Switzerland the other week I thought our bet was the safest one. Slowly getting our way back towards profit again, should hopefully get there soon. I can’t wait until we’ve built up the bank a bit so we can start widening out in the sort of bets we place (bit complex to explain, but you’ll soon understand when we get there). I’ll also be setting up a group tomorrow for in-play bets (by far my main strength) since some of you have expressed an interest in that, but more details on that in the writeup tomorrow.

    Balance: £9.66

    Finland Ykkonen PK 35 v KooTeePee
    08-09-2013 16:30
    KooTeePee @ 7/5
    Stake: 40p

    KooTeePee are one of the surprises of the season in this division, they finished in a relatively poor position last season, but as the season is drawing to a close (5 games left) they’re firmly rooted in 3rd and a win here will see them move closer to SJK and Haka near the top (I don’t think they’ll over-take them though). KTP have a great away record as well, only losing 1 in their 5 last away league games (and that was to Haka after they had to play the last 30 mins with 10 men). PK35 have only won 4 of their 11 home games so far this season, and all bar the first game of the season (funnily enough against KTP, but I highly doubt we’ll be seeing a repeat of that score!) the victories have all been against the worst teams in the division. Very generous odds considering the stats, i’ll say a 2-1 win to KTP.

    Brazilian Serie A Matches Corinthians v Nautico PE
    08-09-2013 20:00
    Alternative Handicap
    Corinthians (-1.0) @ 5/6

    Stake: 50p

    It’s not often i’d back a handicap in the Brazilian league but I feel this has to be taken. Nautico finished 12th last season, but have since sold their best striker (scored 13 goals in 20 games last season) and they’ve failed to find someone who can match that sort of form, in their 17 games played this season, they’ve only scored 9 goals, scoring just 1 goal in their last 10. Corinthians have got a stunning defensive record in a league notorious for goals, conceding just 8 times in 18 games (the next best in the league is 14 goals!). Based on these stats alone you’d fancy Corinthians to run riot, but i’ve got a few more if you’re not quite convinced yet. Of the 13 games that Nautico have lost this season, 9 have covered the handicap required here. One slight concern is that Corinthians top scorer this season (Pato) was on international duty with Brazil last night, so I highly doubt he’ll be available for the game, but i’m still confident that Corinthians can cover the handicap needed here.
  2. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Corinthians bet is now a 60p stake.
  3. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Amazed Corinthians didn’t win that game, 18 shots, 16 corners, hit the post, but couldn’t even score once, let alone the 2 we needed. KTP dominated their game slightly less, but conceded and ended up losing. Disappointing. There are no bets tomorrow, I’d initially planned a double with 2 U21 games (Italy + Germany), but i’m upon researching it, i’ve lost a bit of confidence in it, so it’s now a no bet for me (concerns with the Germany game, and i’m not willing to touch the Italian handicaps, and the odds for outright win are too poor). So instead the bets for Tuesdays games are below. I mentioned yesterday about betting inplay and there was a bit of interest about an inplay group, featuring not just mine, but other peoples tips, i’ve now set that up and you can join it here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/593598050686883/

    Day 40:

    Balance: £8.66

    European U21 Championship Qualifiers Belarus U21 v France U21
    09-09-2013 19:30
    France U21 @ 2/9

    European U21 Championship Qualifiers Luxembourg U21 v Holland U21
    09-09-2013 17:00
    Alternative Handicap
    Holland U21 (-1.0) @ 4/11

    European U21 Championship Qualifiers Finland U21 v England U21
    09-09-2013 17:00
    England U21 @ 3/10

    Stake: 50p (as a treble, pays just under 6/5)

    Holland were clinical the other, destroying Scotland 4-0, I was reluctant to get on the handicaps in that game, but that’s not the case in this game, should be a very one-sided game, and I can’t really believe i’m taking a -1 handicap at that price, but i’m very confident they’ll match it. France were equally as clinical, destroying Kazakhstan 5-0. France have a advantage over most other U21 teams, having played in a youth festival over the summer, they finished 3rd place (after Brazil the winners and Colombia) and have got a wealth of talent. England could be the bogey team here, they were 1/18 to beat Moldova the other day and could only manage a 1-0 victory. The same again would be nice though!
  4. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Day 41:

    Should have gone with my gut and taken the Italy U21 + Germany U21 double like i’d planned, shocking displays by Holland and England let us down (can thank Andre Wisdom for screwing up our England bet). Apologies, regarding the confusion about days, hopefully saved some of you some money though! A slight consolation is that we had a pretty good day in the in-play group, placing 10 bets, winning 7, getting a refund on 1 and losing 2. Anyway, bit more confident about tomorrows selections, the writeups aren’t as in depth as usual i’m afraid, had a very busy day!

    World Cup Qualifiers Italy v Czech Republic
    10-09-2013 19:45
    Italy @ 8/15

    World Cup Qualifiers Kazakhstan v Sweden
    10-09-2013 17:00
    Sweden @ 2/7

    Stake: 50p (as a double)

    Czech Republic are on a rotten bout of form and look like they’re going to struggle to get to the world cup (their group is close, very close: http://uk.soccerway.com/internationa...group-b/g4650/), Italy have practically qualified, a win here will see them qualify for sure, and i’m sure they’ll want to do it in style in front of the home crowd. A win for Sweden will move them away from either Ireland or Austria (who play each other tomorrow, a draw would be perfect for Sweden). Sweden won the previous fixture 2-0, and i’d expect a similar, if not higher, score here.

    World Cup Qualifiers Paraguay v Argentina
    11-09-2013 02:45
    Argentina @ 4/5

    Stake: 60p

    Really can’t believe these odds, absolutely crazy. The team Argentina are taking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argenti...#Current_squad), the recent form of both (Argentina have lost just 2 in their last 20 games, and both games were against Brazil). Just spells nothing but an Argentina win for me.

    World Cup Qualifiers Malta v Bulgaria
    10-09-2013 19:00
    Handicap Betting
    Bulgaria (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Stake: 40p

    A win for Bulgaria will move them away from the chasing pack of Czech Republic, Armenia and Denmark, who are all 1 point behind Bulgaria. Malta are the whipping boys of the group, and the previous qualifier ended up in a 6-0 Bulgarian win. Whilst I don’t think they’ll match that score again here, the handicap is certainly good value.
  5. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Day 42:

    Will do full write-ups tomorrow but the bets are:

    Balance: £8.76

    Finnish Veikkausliiga JJK Jyvaskyla v Vaasa PS
    12-09-2013 16:30
    Vaasa PS @ 13/8

    Stake: 50p

    Iceland Urvalsdeild Vikingur Olafsvik v KR Reykjavik
    12-09-2013 18:30
    Handicap Betting
    KR Reykjavik (-1.0) @ 7/5

    Stake: 50p
  6. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Day 43:

    A great win for VPS and a close call for KR (knew it was a bit of a risk, but if you read the writeup, i explain why I thought it was worth it) sums up a decent enough day. There were a couple of bets for tomorrow I would have liked to have done, but sadly they haven’t been priced up yet (Bayern Munich II -2 handicap). But I guess keeping the numbers of bets down will help us get back into profit.

    Balance: 9.08

    Bulgarian A League Pirin Gotse v CSKA Sofia
    13-09-2013 14:15
    CSKA Sofia / CSKA Sofia @ 4/5

    Stake: 60p

    Pirin Gotse are terrible, losing 6 of their 7 games played so far (1 draw as well), in those 7 games, they have also conceded 23 goals, which works out at just over 3 goals per game. CSKA Sofia are rightly 3/10 odds on favourites for this match, but looking at the stats for Pirin Gotse, I can see that out of the 23 goals they’ve conceded, almost 62% of those have been in the first half. So odds of 4/5 certainly look like good value to me. Initially I was going to take the handicap, but looking a bit further I can see the CSKA aren’t the most prolific of scorers (scored 6 in their first 7 games, although they haven’t been the easiest of games!), so a handicap would be a bit risky. This bet removes the need of scoring 2, 1-0 is enough win us the bet (provided CSKA score the goal in the first half!).

    Austrian League Matches TSV Hartberg v SKNV St Polten
    13-09-2013 17:30
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7

    Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Rovaniemi PS
    13-09-2013 16:30
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/6

    Portuguese Div 2 Matches Porto B v Moreirense
    13-09-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13

    Stake: 30p (as a treble)

    This is just a small stats based treble i’m taking, it’s a bit risky so feel free to not follow if you have doubts about it, i’m going by pure stats for this one, I don’t know a whole lot about the Austrian league, but the teams average 3.75 goals and 2.75 goals per game each. The Honka game is probably the riskiest in my eyes, I reckon Honka will win that 2-0, so it will depend on is RPS can grab a goal or not. The Portugese game is against 2 of the best teams in the division, they score for fun but don’t concede many. Hopefully this will mean they’ll cancel each other out!
  7. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Day 45

    Shocking day yesterday, with only the smallest stake bet coming in. Rostov were disappointing, and couldn’t grab a goal. Marseille were absolutely shocking, and looked a far cry away from the team that finished 2nd last season. My apologies, also apologies for the lateness of the bets for both yesterday and today, it’s been a hectic week! There were a few bets I liked the look of today, but after the shocker that was yesterday, didn’t fancy choosing which to take and which to leave, along with deciding the best stakes for both, so i’ve decided to put them all into a Yankee bet, this means not all of the selections need to win to get profit (although 3 out of 4 do need to win ideally!)

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga
    BK Hacken v Helsingborg
    15th of Sept 2013 4:30 pm
    Helsingborg @ 6/4

    Serie A Matches
    Lazio v Chievo
    15th of Sept 2013 2:00 pm
    Lazio @ 8/11

    Belarus Premier League
    BATE Borisov v Neman Grodno
    15th of Sept 2013 3:00 pm
    Handicap Betting
    BATE Borisov (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Serie A Matches
    Udinese v Bologna
    15th of Sept 2013 2:00 pm
    Udinese @ 5/6

    Stake: 0.10 (for a total stake of £1.10)
  8. reids

    reids Squad Player

    As i'm sure you're aware, we haven't had the best of it lately. I have made a substantial amount from betting in the past, however a vast majority of my bets have been in-play. Inplay betting is far easier to make profit from, as you can adapt to certain scenarios that you can't on a pre-game bet.

    I thought this could work given the knowledge and experience I have, I was sure that I could make a significant amount of profit for everyone in here. Sadly that hasn't been the case, and for that I can only apologise. As a result i'm going to be cutting the losses now. Over the next few days, i'll be renaming the group and posting some details, but in short what i'll be doing is turning this group into a In-play betting group (i'll be closing the other in-play group that exists). Whilst I recommended PaddyPower for the pre-game bets, if you're looking to follow for inplay bets, I recommend you get a Bet365 account, most of the bets will be done on there as no other bookie comes close for inplays.

    Once again I apologise for the few quid I've lost everyone, but if you stick with me for the inplays, we can make it back!

    I don't know how that'll be possible to translate over to a forum environment given the reactive nature of inplay bets (Facebook works cos you can set it to get a notification when I post). So if anyone wants to join in, you can add https://www.facebook.com/tipster.stu as a friend, and i'll add you in to the group.

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