£10 into £2000 in 365 days (Bets thread)

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by reids, Aug 2, 2013.

  1. reids

    reids First Team

    This threads for my bets only, if you'd like to comment, please use the other thread!
     
  2. reids

    reids First Team

    1.08.2013

    Day 1:

    Balance: £10

    STAKE: 75p


    Europa League Qualifiers Nk Siroki Brijeg v Udinese
    01-08-2013 19:45
    Handicap Betting
    Udinese (-1.0) @11/10

    Nk Siroki Brijeg got lucky reaching this far. They qualified by winning the Bosnian Cup, and to say they had it lucky is an understatement. They finished 6th out of 16 in the Bosnian Premier league last season, but faced the champions of the PL in the Bosnian Cup. Both legs ended 1-1 and they ended up winning on penalties. The semi final they played a team the division below them (a huge gulf in c lass) and won 8-2 on aggregate. The quarter finals they played a team in the same division and again scraped through on penalties.
    Udinese on the other hand, finished 5th in Serie A, and have taken a full 25 man squad containing a majority of their first team (missing only 3 first team members from last season, 1 of those is a long time injury and the other has been sold, so a strong squad to say the least). Will be VERY surprised if Udinese don't make the handicap.

    Bet 2 :

    STAKE: 35p (AS AN ACCUMULATOR)

    These will be a mainstay of our journey. I usally know the leagues for the optimum bets for these type of bets, but none of them are running on this particular day, so i'm taking a little risk with this (hence the smaller stake). I generally find that these sort of accumulators (paying evens) only lose ever 4 or 5 times I do them, which when they payout at around evens, still means profit:

    Finland Ykkonen Ilves v AC Oulu
    01-08-2013 16:30
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/8

    Europa League Qualifiers Petrolul Ploiesti v Vitesse Arnhem
    01-08-2013 17:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/9

    Europa League Qualifiers KS Kukesi v Metalurg Donetsk
    01-08-2013 18:30
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/8

    Europa League Qualifiers Tromso v FC Differdange 03
    01-08-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 2/9

    Europa League Qualifiers BK Hacken v FC Thun
    01-08-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/8
     
  3. reids

    reids First Team

    2.08.13

    Day 2:

    Balance: £10.48

    Russia Premier League Anzhi Makhachkala v FK Rostov
    02-08-2013 17:00
    Team To Score
    FK Rostov to Score a Goal @ 5/6

    STAKE: 75p

    (or Anzhi to keep a clean sheet - NO depending on which bookie you’re using, if you can't find it on a particular bookie, shout and i'll track down which bet it is for you)

    Anzhi are massive odds on favourites (2/5) to win this game, however I feel the value lies with Rostov. They’ve had a great start to the season, winning 2 of their 3 games played so far. A far cry from last season when they only just avoided relegation. Their turnaround in fortunes is mostly down to Artem Dzyuba who they’ve got on loan from Spartak Moscow, he’s scored an incredible 6 goals in 3 games, and will most likely be involved if Rostov get a chance. Anzhi on the other hand have been poor so far, and out of their 10 last league games have only kept one clean sheet. Certainly think this is great value for a bet that could win after 10 minutes.


    Estonian Premier League Levadia Tallinn v Tallinna Fc Infonet
    02-08-2013 17:30
    Handicap Betting
    Tallinna Fc Infonet (+2.0) @ 10/11

    Stake: 40p

    This is risky, i’d initially picked out this game for a Levadia -1 handicap before any odds were set, but upon seeing the odds today, -1 handicap isn’t available, only -2. I’m really not confident that Levadia would make that handicap (it was going to be a risk going for -1!), in fact in their last 10 games, they’ve only covered the -1 handicap once. I’m sure they’ll win, but I reckon they’ll win 1-0 or 2-1. So that for reason I think the + handicaps on Tallinna are the way forward, it’s a bit risky because they aren’t a great team and Levadia are one of the most consistent teams in the division, but it’s worth a small stake, as all the stats point to those odds being great value.
     
  4. reids

    reids First Team

    Posting up Saturdays and Sundays bets now as i'm off to Birmingham early tomorrow and won't be around to post the Sundays bets up in the evening!

    Day 3:

    Balance: £10.70 (presuming the Levadia game is a loss)



    Stake: 50p

    Belarus Premier League Naftan Novopolotsk v BATE Borisov
    03-08-2013 16:00
    Handicap Betting
    BATE Borisov (-1.0) @ 8/5


    BATE will want to make sure they win this to keep the pressure up on Shakhtyor who are sitting top of the table, BATE have a decent squad including Alexander Hleb (ex barca + arsenal). Naftan have been pretty crap this season, winning only 2 of their 18 games. The previous fixture between these teams finished 3-0 BATE and i’m confident that they can meet the handicap again here. I had originally planned this as a 75p stake, as the odds were 5/4 yesterday, the sudden jump to 8/5 makes me think that BATE might have an injury or 2, so i'm erring on the side of caution and going for a smaller stake.




    Stake 60p as a treble bet

    English Championship Matches Derby v Blackburn
    04-08-2013 16:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    English Championship Matches Middlesbrough v Leicester
    03-08-2013 15:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    English Championship Matches Bournemouth v Charlton
    03-08-2013 15:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    Day 4:

    DOUBLE BET - Stake 40p


    Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Inter Turku
    04-08-2013 16:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    FC Honka @ 4/7

    Finnish Veikkausliiga Kuopio PS v HJK Helsinki
    04-08-2013 14:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    HJK Helsinki @ 8/11



    These are absolute must wins for both teams on Sunday, there’s only a few games left of the season, and Honka have a slim lead in the title race, although HJK have a game in hand to make things interesting. Both teams will be absolutely going for it. The Finnish Premier League has an odd trait however, in that the home teams usually have a huge advantage (i’m not sure why exactly, could be distance travelled or something similar), that could screw us up, but these teams are quality so reckon they’ll both still win. Odds for the double is 17/10

    Brazilian Serie A Matches Vitoria BA v Portuguesa
    04-08-2013 22:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Vitoria BA @ 5/6

    Stake 50p

    Small staking this because the Brazilian league is so unpredictable, you can have a bet that looks incredible on paper, and then your team will go and lose 4-0. Vitoria are a newly promoted side, but have been flying so far, beating established and good teams like Sao Paulo and Vasco De Gama, and drawing against Internacional (not bad considering Inter have Forland + Damiao up front..), Portugesa on the other hand have only won one of their 9 games so far and have looked rather poor. Worth a smallish stake for sure.
     
  5. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 5:

    Balance: £11.28 (with the stake from the Brazil game that’s later not included in that)

    Finnish Veikkausliiga Turku PS v FC Lahti
    05-08-2013 16:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Turku PS @ evens

    Stake 50p

    Lahti have had a very disappointing season so far, although they did manage a 3-0 away win against VPS which was a HUGE shock to me, it’s not often the away team wins in this league. Personally I think the TPS win is a great price, especially since TPS managed to scrap an away win against them last month.


    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Djurgardens v Helsingborg
    05-08-2013 18:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Helsingborg @ 8/11

    Stake: 75p

    Helsingborg are one of my favourite teams to watch, I often stream their games, they always play nice football, and it’s got them to the top of the table. Their star striker David Accam is on fire at the moment, scoring 3 goals in his last 3 games. I think the win price is very generous, they should have no problem in winning this game.


    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Djurgardens v Helsingborg
    05-08-2013 18:00
    Handicap Betting
    Helsingborg (-1.0) @ 9/4

    Stake: 25p

    As above, I feel another small stake on the -1 handicap has to be taken at this price.




    Stake 50p:

    Czech Premier League Slavia Prague v Sigma Olomouc
    05-08-2013 17:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/10

    EA Sports Cup Matches Derry City v Drogheda United
    05-08-2013 19:45
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/8

    Bulgarian A League Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Beroe Stara Zagora
    05-08-2013 19:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/7

    Danish SAS Ligaen Vestsjaelland v Aalborg
    05-08-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/10

    Finnish Veikkausliiga JJK Jyvaskyla v Mypa Myllykoski
    05-08-2013 16:30
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    If you’re having trouble finding the Derry + Drogheda game, it might be under the country Ireland rather than the competition name.
     
  6. reids

    reids First Team

    Firstly apologies for the awful day today, should never have included the -1 for Helsingborg, as that bumped the stake up leaving us to rely too much on Helsingborg to win, that result (combined with the other losses) means we’re just on 20p profit now which i’m pretty gutted about. But still, these days WILL indeed happen, but as long as we have more profitable days than losing days then we’re still laughing at the end of the day, and i’m still confident that we can certainly do that. On the plus side I watched the entirety of the Helsingborg game, and Djurgardens played very well and created an incredible atmosphere, so I will definitely be keeping an eye out for potential bets on them to win, so this game could still benefit us in the long run!.

    Day 6

    Balance: 10.20

    Capital One Cup Bristol Rovers v Watford
    06-08-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Watford @ 5/6 (please read below before placing!)

    Stake: 75p

    Gonna get this out the way quickly. Watford are my team, I support them, go to most games both home and away. I normally try not to let that influence my bets and you won’t often see me posting a bet involving Watford on here, but I feel this price is too good to take. Bristol City are in league 2 and are without 9 first team players (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/23499317) for the game. I think the reason the price is so high for Watford to win, is due to the fact the bookies have no idea what sort of team Watford are going to put out for the game. I think a few first teamers from Watford will be rested, but the players that will replace them are most certainly Championship quality, and should be able to win against a league 2 team with little trouble. If you’re uncertain at all, i’ll be posting as soon as the Watford team is announced tomorrow (should be around 7PM, kick off is at 7.45), to rate Watfords chances. So you can either wait until tomorrow evening or not to see whether it’s a certain bet, or take a risk and place it now at the odds of 5/6 (could change if Watford name a strong team)

    Champions League Qualifiers Grasshopper Zurich v Lyon
    06-08-2013 20:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Lyon @ 6/4

    Stake: 40p

    Initially had this down as slightly bigger stake bet, but upon doing my usual research, noticed Lyon have lost a few players in the transfer window, and with the departure of Gomis imminent to Newcastle, i’m not quite as confident in this bet, hence the smaller stake. I still think Lyon have the quality to win here, they won the first leg 1-0, and I think a similar score is on the cards here.

    Estonian Premier League Tammeka Tartu v Levadia Tallinn
    06-08-2013 17:30
    Handicap Betting
    Levadia Tallinn (-2.0) @ 2/1 (please read the end of my write-up if using Bet365!)

    Stake: 30p

    Levadia lost us money the other day when they put 3 past Tallina Infonet, on the basis of that win i’m going to go small on the -2 handicap. I again wanted -1 (if -2 is 2/1, -1 should be 4/6 or 5/6) but as usual it’s not priced up yet (considering the game is only tomorrow, i’m pretty annoyed that these only get fully priced up just before kick-off but that’s another story!). I’d say that Tammeka are a worse team than Tallina, conceding 6 more goals than Tallinna, having played 2 games less than them. I’m not entirely convinced Levadia can make the handicap, hence the smaller stake, but I thought that and the made up, hopefully they can do it again here!
    Bet365 are still yet to price this game (they always seem to be slow on this league for some reason). But i'll be keeping an eye on it tomorrow, and will post the necessary bet as soon as its price.
     
  7. reids

    reids First Team

    Balance: £11.12

    Happy with the results today, good win for Watford and a close win for Lyon (semi wish i’d done 1-0 correct score prediction as I said i’d expect a similar score to the first leg!) sees us in profit for the day and back on track!

    Day 7:

    Champions League Qualifiers Zulte Waregem v PSV
    07-08-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    PSV @ 3/4

    Stake: 75p

    Can’t believe the price for this game, I think PSV were 2/9 to win the home leg, and they did quite comfortably (2-0). PSV played a strong squad, including players that really impressed me at the recent U21 Euros (Maher + Wijnaldum in particular). I reckon they’ll play an equally strong squad here and go for an away goal or 2 just to guarantee the win. Zulte Waregem have made a good start to the season (winning 2/2) and don’t have a bad squad (which includes Eden Hazards brother), but the Dutch league is superior in every aspect to the Belgian league, and I’d expect another 1-0 or 2-0 win to PSV.

    Champions League Qualifiers Elfsborg v Celtic
    07-08-2013 18:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Elfsborg @ 8/5

    Stake 50p

    I’ve watched back the entirety of the first leg in research for this bet as I thought Elfsborg really represented value as there’s some advantages that I think the bookies have overlooked. In the first leg Elfsborg were VERY defensive, shutting down Celtic whenever they got the ball, they did it admirably, for the most part, except falling asleep for the only goal of the game (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqr7-UQMiCk - terrible defending, both by the centre back and the full back). I believe that Elfsborg set-up like this to restrict damage in the first leg, and try to win the game in the 2nd leg. Having watched Elfsborg a lot over the last season, I also think they can get a result here. Their home record is immense, having lost just 1 in their last 10 games, and scoring an amazing 26 goals in the last 10 home games in all competitions. They also have a huge advantage over Celtic, and I think the bookies might not have taken this into equation when pricing up Elfsborg - they play on astroturf. Because of this, the ball rolls and bounces a little differently than on grass, not by much because it’s pretty much the best astroturf available, but it’s certainly different to grass, the Elfsborg players will be a lot more comfortable playing on this surface than the Celtic players will. My only concern is that Elfsborg will be a little more attacking and could be vulnerable to the counter-attack, especially since Celtic will go through if Elfsborg don’t score, so are more likely to sit deep. But for the odds, it’s certainly worth a medium stake on the Elfsborg win.
     
  8. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 8:

    Balance: £11.18

    Another profitable day yesterday (albeit only 6p), Elfsborg were shocking at their shooting, 12 shots off target according to the stats! Should have had a clear cut penalty as well, were much the better team than Celtic were. Ah well, onto tomorrow!

    Europa League Qualifiers Udinese v Nk Siroki Brijeg
    08-08-2013 19:45
    To Win Both Halves
    Udinese @ 10/11

    Stake: 75p

    2nd leg of the first bet we placed in the group, this is the only value I could find. I’d initially planned for Udinese to win to nil at 8/11 but upon checking that has now significantly dropped in price and is too risky for the returns. The Udinese manager has said that he is wary of any shocks and will most likely play the same team that won the first leg 3-1.



    Europa League Qualifiers Malmo v Swansea
    08-08-2013 18:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Swansea @ evens

    Stake: 40p

    Swansea demolished Malmo 4-0 in the first leg, with some excellent play by Swanseas new signing Bony. I imagine Swansea will play a mix of fringe first team players with some of the new additions (Bony + Pozuelo I reckon will both start). They’ll look to keep a clean sheet here and probably won’t be too attacking, but the way that Swansea play football is meant both to keep the number of goals conceded down whilst creating the most attacking chances, and i’m sure they’ll grab a goal or 2, a good value bet here.
     
  9. nascot

    nascot First Team

    Can this thread be made a sticky?
     
  10. wfcwarehouse

    wfcwarehouse First Team Captain

    Good idea, done.
     
  11. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 9:

    Balance: 11.46

    Not a bad day 8, Udinese came through in some style, gutted about Swansea, dodgy refereeing and linesmanship cost us that bet, but that’s part and parcel of betting!

    French Div 1 Matches Montpellier v PSG
    09-08-2013 19:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    PSG @ 5/6

    Stake: 50p

    PSG won the league in some style last season, finishing a huge 31 points ahead of Montpellier. Montpellier have lost arguably their best player over the summer (Younes Belhanda) and haven’t really splashed the cash finding a replacement (spent 1.5m over the summer). PSG on the other hand have an immense squad, with the recent 55m arrival, Cavani, sure to play here. Last season PSG won at home against Montpellier but drew 1-1 away (although Sakho did get sent off after 10 minutes played). This price is an absolute steal.

    Austrian League Matches First Vienna FC 1894 v FC Liefering
    09-08-2013 17:30
    Handicap Betting
    FC Liefering (-1.0) @ 7/5

    Stake: 50p

    FC Liefering are a newly promoted side, but it hasn’t shown by their recent results. They’ve played 4 games and won 4 games, scoring on average 4 goals per game, and conceding 1 goal per game. By contrast, Vienna haven’t won a game so far, and have lost 3 out of the 4 games played, conceding 3 goals per game on average, and scoring under a goal per game. These odds are certainly value.
     
  12. reids

    reids First Team

    I’m afraid I won’t be able to post on Saturday night as i’ll most likely be out, so once again i’ll be putting both Saturdays and Sundays bets up tonight. The Austrian game was a complete disaster, despite the stats and everything pointing to a win for our team. PSG could only draw, even when playing against 10 men for the last 20 minutes of the match. But on the plus side, Blanc plays his full backs very very high up the pitch, leaving PSG very open to the counter. I can see us winning a few bets backing against PSG this season.

    Day 10

    Balance: £10.46

    Danish SAS Ligaen Esbjerg v Aarhus
    10-08-2013 16:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Esbjerg @ evens

    Stake: 60p

    Both teams are quite evenly matched form wise and it would initially be hard to pick a winner here, until you look a bit deeper that is. Esbjerg have an irresistible home form, winning 8 out of their last 10 home games, conceding just 6 times in those 10 games (2 of those were in the 6-2 smashing they gave Odense). I don’t expect Esbjerg to cruise to a win here, but certainly see them winning 1-0 or 2-1. Evens is a great price considering their home record, hopefully they can do a job for us here!

    Finnish Veikkausliiga JJK Jyvaskyla v FF Jaro
    10-08-2013 14:00
    Both Teams To Score
    No @ 11/10

    Stake: 50p

    When I looked at the table for this game, I thought about taking the Jaro win, then I looked at the recent form and changed my mind to go for under 2.5 goals. Upon checking the odds I found they were 4/6, too low for us to take. I did find one bet I liked the look of. Both teams to score no, 3 out of 4 of Jaros last away games have ended 0-0, including this exact fixture (JJK at home as well) just a week and a half ago. JJK have only scored 4 goals in their last 5 home games (and 2 of them were in the same game against the team just above them in the league). Expecting this game to either end 0-0 again or a 1-0 win to Jaro.

    Day 11:

    Was initially going to go for 2 bets today, but couldn’t decide which to leave out, so opting for 3 bets instead!

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Syrianska v IFK Gothenborg
    11-08-2013 14:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    IFK Gothenborg @ 4/5

    Stake: 75p

    The odds for this are somewhat confusing. I’ll admit that Gothenborg haven’t got the greatest away form at the moment (won 1 out the last 5 away league games), but Syrianska are terrible, whether it be home or away, losing two-thirds of their 18 games played so far. Considering Gothenborg are 4th, just 3 points away from 2nd this definitely represents value.

    Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Turku PS
    11-08-2013 16:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    FC Honka @ 5/6

    Stake: 50p

    Honka have a cracking home record, losing just once all season (Finland are 22 games into their season) and that was to their title rivals HJK. As per usual in Finland, this isn’t gonna be a game of goals, but i’m sure Honka will absolutely dominate the game and try to extend their lead on the top of the table. TPS aren’t that great a team and a destined for a mid-table finish, and haven’t won in any of their last 5 away games.

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Helsingborg v Norrkoping
    11-08-2013 14:00
    Handicap Betting
    Helsingborg (-1.0) @ 6/4

    Stake: 40p

    I know Helsingborg aren’t the most popular team round here after the horrible day they helped with when they lost to Djurgardens, but as someone who watches them regularly, I think they can inflict a hammering on Norrkoping. We backed Helsingborg away, they still win a lot away, but that’s nothing compared to their home form. They’ve played 15 home league games in the last year, won 10, drawn 3, lost 2, as well as scoring 42 goals, whilst only conceding 11. I’m positive they can make the handicap here, and these odds are immense.
     
  13. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 12:

    Balance: £12.23

    An absolutely epic weekend saw us win 4 out our 5 bets, not too shabby! The banks increasing daily which is always good, still slow progress at the moment in terms of actual profit but it will come in time, it’s all about playing the slow game, keeping discipline and making steady profit. Tomorrow looks a pretty slow day, but i’ve found 2 bets that I like the look of:

    Belarus Premier League FC Minsk v Naftan Novopolotsk
    12-08-2013 16:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    FC Minsk @ 8/11 (not priced up on Bet365 yet for the people using them, most likely priced up tomorrow morning though!)

    Stake: 75p

    Initially had this down as a non bet, but seeing the limited amount of fixtures and probing a little deeper, I actually think this is a rather good bet, although I would have liked a bit better odds as I don’t think these odds should be as low as 8/11, probably a little closer to evens (around 5/6). Minsk have played 9 home games this season, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 3. The 3 losses were against the best teams in the league, one of the draws was an understandable draw (not a huge difference in quality between the 2 teams), whilst the other draw was a game Minsk should have won. Naftan have won just 3 games out of their last 20 away games in the league and have only won 2 out of their 19 games so far this season. As a recent benchmark, BATE (in my opinion the best team in the league) have played both teams away within the last month. BATE beat Naftan 5-1 (we had BATE -1 on that game I believe!), whilst BATE beat also Minsk 1-0. I think Minsk will be far too strong for Naftan, and see a 1-0 or 2-0 win to Minsk here.


    French Div 2 Matches Brest v Istres
    12-08-2013 19:30
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/5

    Dutch Jupiler League Matches Jong PSV v Excelsior
    12-08-2013 19:00
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/7

    Danish SAS Ligaen Sonderjyske v Vestsjaelland
    12-08-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/9

    Russian League Matches Arsenal Tula v FK UFA
    12-08-2013 16:00
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals
    Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/7

    Stake: 60p

    This bet is placed as an accumulator and pays 6/4, great value I believe.
     
  14. reids

    reids First Team

    Balance: 10.88

    Awful day today, I couldn’t even see Naftan scoring once, let alone twice, Minsk obviously had their chances as they hit the woodwork twice. Over 1.5 goal acccumulator was let down by the first game, no doubt the rest will go on to be goal-fests now. Ah well, onwards and upwards.. As well as tomorrows i’m also posting Wednesdays bets up now, to ensure we get the best prices before they get hammered in by people placing them tomorrow. You’ll notice there’s quite a few bets, this is due to a couple of reasons, firstly, because there’s so many selections I like, and secondly there’s no bets I fancy on Thursday, so Wednesday will hopefully make up for missing a day, however usual service is resumed on Thursday evening.

    Day 13:

    Swiss Challenge League FC Wil 1900 v FC Wohlen
    13-08-2013 18:45
    Handicap Betting
    FC Wil 1900 (-1.0) @ 15/8

    Stake: £0.40

    Wil have started the season strongly, winning 3 out of their opening 4 games, this league isn’t usually one i’m comfortable taking on handicaps in, they’re usually very close games (even though there’s plenty of goals). But sadly we were priced out of the win (Wil were 8/13), but I reckon the price for this is decent enough for the risk if you take a look at Wils recent results, 2 of their games they’ve won this season they’ve won 3-0, and both of the teams they beat are either side of Wohlen in the table, so i’m happy for a small stake on this.

    Day 14

    International Friendlies Iraq v Chile - Neutral
    14-08-2013 17:30
    Alternative Handicap
    Chile (-1.0) @ 5/6

    Stake: 75p

    I love International games, because there’s so much quality in all the teams, you get some crazy prices sometimes, this is one of them. An absolute no-brainer this. A quick look at the FIFA rankings (although don’t read too much into these!) shows Chile at 21st in the world and Iraq at 104th. A look at the teams shows the real difference. Out of the 20 players in the Iraq squad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_national_football_team#Current_squad), only 3 play outside of the Iraqi league, one in the Swedish second division, one in the Qatari league and the other in Turkey. Compare that to the Chilean team (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chile_national_football_team#Current_squad) and it all begins to look a bit one sided. Alexis Sanchez will most likely be the main man up front for Chile, and would certainly expect him to get a goal here.

    International Friendlies Switzerland v Brazil
    14-08-2013 19:45
    Handicap Betting
    Brazil (-1.0) @ 15/8

    Stake: 0.75p

    I’ve been stressing about this bet ever since the prices were released, Brazil were priced as 8/11 for the win, which would usually be a lump job for me (was contemplating a £1 stake for the challenge), but seeing how quickly we change prices, I opted against that, and was going to split the planned £1 stake into 50p for the win, and 50p for the -1, but i’ve now changed my mind again, and gone for solely the -1 with a half-way stake. Switzerland are an odd team, they’ve got established regulars who are quickly aging, and some great young talents (Xhaka + Shaqiri) but not much in-between. Brazil are largely taking the same squad that won the Confederations cup, including Neymar, Hulk, Lucas, Bernard, Alves etc etc. If that team can beat Spain 3-0, then almost 2/1 for -1 handicap against Switzerland seems an absolute steal.

    International Friendlies Colombia v Serbia - Neutral
    14-08-2013 19:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Colombia @ 19/20

    Stake: 0.60p

    Serbia have a strong defence, made up of players playing for some of the best teams in Europe, however they lack options upfront in my opinion, Colombia on the other hand have a relatively decent team throughout, with Falcao and Muriel up front, with Rodriguez just behind and Armero and Zuniga bombing it up the flanks, they should overwhelm the usually strong Serbian defence (who have conceded goals against Cyprus and Chile quite recently, so are certainly vunerable!). For the price this is a strong bet.

    International Friendlies Ecuador v Spain
    14-08-2013 21:00
    Second Half Handicap - MAKE SURE IT’S SECOND HALF HANDICAP AND NOT FULL GAME
    Ecuador (+1.0) @ 4/5

    Stake: 50p

    I’m proud of the research into this bet, and i’ll be doubly as pleased if it wins as well. Ecuadors ground is very very high (over 2000m above sea level), this effects the body dramatically, as the air is much thinner, therefore is less effective. Big breaths do nothing to help and many many teams have come here and failed to come away with anything, Ecuador have lost 1 game in their last 10 games at home, and that was a 4-2 loss to Germany (all of Germanys goals were scored in the first 25 minutes, and both of Ecuadors goals were in the 2nd half) and their last game here was a 1-1 draw against Argentina (complete with Messi + Aguero). Ecuadors players are used to this height, with lots of them playing locally. I certainly wouldn’t back against Spain to win overall, but I imagine they’ll get very very tired in the second half and start to struggle, and with that comes the chances for an Ecuadorian goal, we’ve seen many times that Spain are vunerable at the back, and in this altitude, Ecuador will come at them in the second half when Spain are tiring.

    International Friendlies Hungary v Czech Republic
    14-08-2013 19:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Czech Republic @ 8/5

    Stake: 40p

    Not much of a writeup for this bet, but Czech Republic have the far superior squad, form, overall results and pretty much everything is in their favour, a mental price!
     
  15. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 16:

    Balance: £11.17

    French Div 1 Matches Sochaux v Lyon
    16-08-2013 19:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Lyon @ 21/20

    Stake: 50p

    Think this is a cracking price myself. Lyon had a great start to the season, thumping Nice 4-0, they’ve also had a strong start to their Champions League campaign, beating Grasshoppers 2-0 on aggregate, as well as a very good pre-season campaign (including a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid). I watched the 2nd leg against Grasshoppers and Lyon played well, their movement was good and they created a few good chances. Their young left back (who you’ll be familiar with if you’ve played Football Manager!) Umtiti is missing in this game though which is a slight blow, but I believe Gomis will be back for Lyon, having not played so far after being linked with a move to Newcastle, that deal seems to have fallen through, so hopefully Gomis will play here and get back to scoring ways (he netted 16 goals in the league last season and ended up Ligue 1s 4th top scorer).

    Swedish Superettan Brage v Orgryte
    16-08-2013 18:15
    Win-Draw-Win
    Orgryte @ evens

    Stake: 50p

    Looking at the table you’d normally avoid this game, Brage are bottom, and Orgryte are directly. above them, but i’m sure Orgryte will win here. Brage are bad, very bad. They’ve won just 1 game out of the 18 games played so far this season, and that was on the first day of the season. They’ve also lost 14 out of their last 15 games. Orgryte aren’t much better, losing half of their 18 games played so far, but they’ve managed to win 4 times, and considering the price and Brages recent form, I think this is a good bet.
     
  16. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 17:

    Posting tomorrows bets up early as there’s an 11AM kickoff there and don’t want people missing it. Was spoilt for choice for bets for Saturday, i’ve got about 3 other bets that i’ve staked, if the pot were a bit higher then i’d also include those, but for damage limitation in case things go wrong, i’ll leave those out!

    Japanese J League Sagan Tosu v Omiya Ardija
    17-08-2013 11:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/4

    Stake: 40p

    It’s not often I bet on this league, but the stats seem to suggest it’ll be worth taking. Sagan Tosu over the course of their 20 league games, average 3.85 goals per game, Omiya Ardija average 2.75 goals per game. I really wanted over 2.5 here for safety but the odds on that were too poor to take, so instead i’m settling for a smaller stake on over 3.5 and hoping for a little bit of luck!

    German Bundesliga Matches Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich
    17-08-2013 14:30
    To Win Both Halves
    Bayern Munich @ 6/4

    Stake: 40p

    Bayern have been in irresistible form in pre-season, and started off their Bundesliga campaign with a resounding 3-1 win over Monchengladbach. Eintracht Frankfurt opened there season with a 6-1 loss to Hertha Berlin, not a good result. I’m confident that Bayern can get the goals required here to win this.

    English Championship Matches Middlesbrough v Blackpool
    17-08-2013 15:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    English Championship Matches Birmingham v Brighton
    17-08-2013 15:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 1/4

    English Championship Matches Barnsley v Charlton
    17-08-2013 15:00
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 1/4

    Stake: 75p

    As a treble, pays out at evens, good value and we had success in this market last week, hoping for more of the same!
     
  17. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 18:

    Balance: 9.65

    Devastated about yesterday, absolute shocking day. Puts us into negative for the first time, should've put a small stake on the under 3.5 accumulator and narrowly missed out on another Bayern goal., devastated. Fingers crossed we land a double day tomorrow to put us back where we belong!

    Finnish Veikkausliiga HJK Helsinki v FC Honka
    18-08-2013 16:30
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

    Stake 50p

    Both the best defences and attacks in the league, this could either be a goal-fest or a boring 0-0, my gut feeling is it will end up 0-0 or a slight 1-0 win to someone (no idea who, it's a title deciding game)

    Portuguese Div 1 Matches Vitoria Setubal v Porto
    18-08-2013 20:00
    Alternative Handicap
    Porto (-1.0) @ 4/5

    Porto have lost a few key players in Rodriguez and Moutinho, but it hasn't seemed to stop them in pre-season, destroying an amazing Napoli team 3-1. They also beat over-achievers (3rd!) Vitória Guimarães 3-0 in the Portugese Super cup, they've got an amazing transfer record in transferring people when they've either got an equal replacement ready and it seems to serve them well. Great value.
     
  18. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 20:

    Balance: 9.55

    I know the recent bets haven’t won us a whole lot of money (in fact quite the opposite) but i’d encourage everyone to keep on with it, these things are bound to happen and are part of gambling. The first couple of months WILL require a little bit of luck to boost our bank up, and i’m sure that will still happen. Anyway, onwards tomorrows bets!

    Champions League Qualifiers Pacos Ferreira v Zenit St Petersburg
    20-08-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Zenit St Petersburg @ 3/4

    Stake: 50p

    Pacos qualified for this stage of the champions league by finishing third in the Portuguese league, they won an an average amount of games, but drew an incredible amount of games, bumping them past the likes of Braga into the Champions League spot. Having watched them and the teams around them a fair amount last season, I really don’t think they deserved to finish ahead of Braga, their quality of play wasn’t the best and they didn’t really score many goals, but fair play to them, they grinded out results consistently and that’s what matters. However I feel Zenit have far too much class for Pacos. As much as I think some of the Zenit players are over-rated (Hulk, i’m looking at you!) they’ve had experience at these grounds before (Witsel as well) and are much more suited to this style of play I feel. Great price, just a shame I didn’t post earlier when it was 5/6!
     
  19. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 21:

    Balance: 9.93

    Champions League Qualifiers Schalke v PAOK
    21-08-2013 19:45
    Handicap Betting
    Schalke (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Stake: 50p

    Schalke have had a disappointing start to their domestic campaign, but they’ll be going for it in front of their own fans to try and make amends, Greece is a hostile place to go so I believe they’ll do their best to finish the tie in the first round. The Schalke side is pure quality, Draxler in midfield is one of Europes brightest young talents at the moment, and he’ll play a key part here. I’m also a huge fan of Farfan on the wing, and he’ll definitely cause the Greeks problems. My only concern is Huntelaar is most likely out injured, but I believe the replacements Schalke have to be more than adequate (either Celtic target Pukki along with the new Hungarian addition Szalai who grabbed 13 goals in 26 starts for Mainz last season).

    Premier League Matches Chelsea v Aston Villa
    21-08-2013 19:45
    Alternative Handicap
    Chelsea (-1.0) @ 5/6

    Stake: 60p

    Not often you’ll see me bet on the Premier League, but having watched how Mourinho have got Chelsea playing, I think this is a great bet. I think there will be some squad rotation for this game, it would certainly make sense considering the depth that Chelsea have got in their squad. I expect Schurrle or Mata to start ahead of De Bruyne (hopefully Schurrle) and Lukaku to start ahead of Torres. I was very impressed with Schurrles 20 odd minutes he played against Hull, great movement, great dribbling and had a few good chances, Lukaku will bully Villas defence a lot more than Torres would in my eyes, Villas defence isn’t the strongest, and Lukaku would certainly win in a battle of strength. Chelsea just need to keep Benteke quiet and they’ll have plenty of chances to run at the young (average age of 24) Villa defence.
     
  20. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 22:

    Furious about todays bets, Schalke were a dead cert to win, but conceded from a 25 yard wonder strike, and couldn’t find it in themselves to score again. Likewise with Chelsea, was tempted by the Villa to score a goal at 5/6 but opted for the handicap instead, terrible decision. This leaves us in a precarious position balance wise, and we now need 3 winning bets in a row to get back to profit which is far from ideal. Still trying to keep a positive spin on things though, clever staking will see us ride out this rocky patch, and hopefully a bit of luck with results will come our way asap!

    Balance: 8.83

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Norrkoping v Djurgardens
    22-08-2013 17:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Norrkoping @ 10/11

    Stake: 40p

    Norrkoping, like most teams in Scandinavia have an awesome home record, in the last year their home league record reads:
    Played: 14
    Won: 8
    Lost: 5
    Drawn: 1

    It may not look too amazing, until you dig a little bit deeper, the losses were against Goteborg, AIK, Helsingborg, Elfsborg and Gefle, the first 4 teams in that list are the equivalent to Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U, City in the Premier League, so no major surprise they lost to them! I did initially want Both Teams To Score since that has happened in 12 of their last 14 home games, but at odds of 4/6 I don’t think it’s worth it, and i’d be much more comfortable taking the outright win instead. Should end up 2-1 or 1-0 to Norrkoping.

    Europa League Qualifiers Swansea v Petrolul Ploiesti
    22-08-2013 19:00
    Handicap Betting
    Swansea (-1.0) @ evens

    Stake: 50p

    Despite getting a thumping from Man United on Saturday, i’m sure Swansea will be geared up for this, Laudrup is taking the competition very seriously and will want a good win here to kill off the tie and avert any surprises in the away leg. Ploiesti haven’t had the greatest start to their domestic campaign either, and I imagine it’ll be business as usual for Swansea, with heavy amounts of possession, creating many chances along the way. Hopefully Bony will start alongside Michu, I feel that partnership will grow and grow and get better as the season progresses, glimpses of it showed in the last leg against Malmo with some great linkup play. I’d say Malmo are a better team that Petrolul, so this could be a smashing. I’d go with a 3-0 final score to Swansea.
     
  21. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 23:

    Finally back into a day of profit (although it was only 10p, but every penny counts!), little bit disappointed I didn’t trust my instincts and back Tottenham -1 instead of the Norrkoping bet, but I was trying to find out the players Tottenham were taking but couldn’t find a squad list anywhere, the most I could find was an 18 year old striker (Shaquile Coulthirst) saying he was going, which didn’t fill me with confidence that Tottenham were taking a strong squad. Was gutted when I saw the lineups and saw the team Tottenham had taken. But it would have been a gamble not knowing the squad, and i’d prefer to err on the side of caution. Was rather disappointed with the Norrkoping score, been trying to find a clip of the first goal as it happened within seconds of kickoff, with no Dangerous Attack shown for it on Bet365 so he might’ve just shot from kickoff! Anyway, onto tomorrow, I wanted another bet, but it’s only been priced up on Bet365 at the moment, and the odds are a little lower than I thought it deserved to be, so i’ll be leaving that one out for the purpose of the challenge. If you have a Bet365 and want a stake on it though, its Bayern Munich II -1 handicap in the Regionalla Bayern league)

    Balance: 8.93

    German Bundesliga 2 Matches SV Sandhausen v Karlsruher
    23-08-2013 17:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Karlsruher @ 11/10

    Stake: 75p

    I love this league, it’s usually relatively easy to look at form and the league table to see who will win the game, and how much by, hopefully this will win on the back of what i’ve just said now! Karlsruher were worthy champions in the third division (this is 2nd divsion) last season, scoring the most goals and conceding just 27 goals in 38 games, they had 2 high scorers, one grabbed 17 goals (and has since moved to Hamburg) but they’ve retained the services of the other who grabbed 15 goals. They’ve had a strong start to the season, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 1. The loss was a 2-1 defeat to Greuther F*rth who are my pick to go up as champions (and who we’ll be having quite a few bets on in the future!), and they did a lot better than expected in their cup game, losing 3-1 to a very strong Wolfsburg side (i’d actually call that a good result for Karlsruher). Sandhausen by contrast, finished in one of the 2 relegation spots last season, but have seemed to remain in the division (no idea why!), losing 20 of their 38 games, they also haven’t had a great start to the current season, registering just 2 points in 4 games (a draw against fellow strugglers Aalen and a 2-2 goalfest against Cottbus)
     
  22. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 24:

    Balance: 8.18

    So annoyed about tonights bet, Karlsruher weren’t playing particularly well in the first half, but were getting chances. They capitalised on that early in the second half and I assumed bet won, until they gave away a corner in the 87th minute, which was headed in off the post due to some sloppy defending. To make things even more annoying Karlsruher had a stonewall penalty denied 2 minutes later. So annoying to be bouncing around like this!

    Estonian Premier League Kuressaare v Paide Linnameeskond
    24-08-2013 15:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Paide Linnameeskond @ 10/11

    Stake: 60p

    Can’t believe the odds for this, Kuressaare are terrible, they are currently bottom of the league by a long way, with just 10 points from 23 games, scoring on average just under 1 goal per game, whilst conceding 2. Their home record isn’t particularly good (Played 12, won 2, drawn 3, lost 7). Paide on the other hand look like they’re going to finish 5th, trailing 4th place by 13 points, but ahead of 6th by 10 points. Paides away record isn’t too bad (played 12, won 5, drawn 1, lost 6, with 4 of the losses being the 4 teams above them in the league). I’d expect a 2-1 victory to Paide here, great odds for the win.

    Portuguese Div 1 Matches Olhanense v Pacos Ferreira
    24-08-2013 18:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Pacos Ferreira @ 8/5

    German Bundesliga 2 Matches Greuther Furth v FC Koln
    24-08-2013 12:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Greuther Furth @ evens

    Serie A Matches Hellas Verona v AC Milan
    24-08-2013 17:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    AC Milan @ 3/4

    French Div 1 Matches Valenciennes v Marseille
    24-08-2013 16:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Marseille @ 11/10

    Premier League Matches Hull v Norwich
    24-08-2013 15:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Norwich @ 2/1

    Premier League Matches Stoke v Crystal Palace
    24-08-2013 15:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Stoke @ 5/6
    Stake: 0.01 (as a Heinz type bet, so should be a total stake of 57p)

    A heinz bet for those that don’t know is similar to an accumulator, but instead of just being the one bet (as in, if one selection loses, they all lose) it’s technically 57 bets (hence the name Heinz, after the 57 varieties) and it takes all selections and combines them into every available combination of doubles/trebles accumulators as well as singles (15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 four-folds, 6 five-folds and a 1 six-fold accumulator.) Depending on how this goes, I might do one of these every weekend, as there’s always some tasty odds around and too many games to incorporate as singles
     
  23. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 25:

    Balance: 8.20

    We got pretty luck with the Paide bet yesterday, opponent had someone sent off within the first 15 minutes, then Paide went 1-0 up after 30 mins, thought it was bet won right then, somehow though the other team scored an equalizer in the 78th minute, face in hands time, luckily though lady luck was smiling on us and Paide scored a 90th minute winner. The Heinz bet didn’t go very well though, resulting in a 53p loss, leaving us a paltry 2p in profit for the day, but any amount of profit is better than a loss.


    Serie A Matches Napoli v Bologna
    25-08-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Napoli @ 2/5

    Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Vaasa PS
    25-08-2013 16:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    FC Honka @ 8/13

    Stake: 50p (as a double)

    Just the one bet today, initially would have liked Honka as a single bet, but the odds are too poor for me, and I don’t have confidence in taking the handicap as VPS are a relatively good side and should give Honka a good game. Honka will really be going for the win, as they’re currently top of the league by just 1 point, however HJK in 2nd have a game in hand, so Honka need a win to keep their title challenge alive.
    Napoli will be pushing Juventus for the title this season I believe, they have lost their prized asset in Cavani, but have used the money (and then some) to strengthen with some top quality players with Higuain, Albiol, Callejon, and Mertens all arriving, along with Reina on loan. Rafa Benitez is now and charge and lead them to some good results in pre-season (beating Benfica and Galatasaray, and a thrilling 2-2 draw with Arsenal). Something has to go seriously wrong to stop them getting a result here.
     
  24. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 26:

    Balance: 8.83
    Our double is looking good with Honka confidently winning 3-0 earlier, and I reckon they’ll go on and win the title off the back of that win. Napoli are also doing well, being 2-0 up at HT and dominating the stats, will take a miracle for Bologna to come back into the game now. So onto tomorrow!

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga Syrianska v Djurgardens
    26-08-2013 18:05
    Win-Draw-Win
    Djurgardens @ 5/6

    Stake: 60p

    Djurgardens have lost us 2 bets so far (with us backing the other team), and I think I under-estimate them too much, hopefully this is where they win us a bet for a change! Syrianska are 16th (bottom) of the league, with a paltry 10 points from 10 games, winning just 2 games all season. Djurgardens are in 10th and on a decent run of form for a mid/low table side, Syrianska will most likely score, but I imagine Djurgardens will have the better of it. A little bit of stats research show out of all the teams Syrianska have played both home/away against the teams 10th and below, they’ve only won once all season. Never touching a bet with Djurgardens in it though if this bet loses!


    Russia Premier League Lokomotiv Moscow v FK Rostov
    26-08-2013 17:00
    Draw No Bet
    FK Rostov @ 9/4

    Stake: 30p

    Similar to my Rostov writeup a few weeks ago, they’re being very over-priced by the bookies who don’t seem to think their form will hold out, but with the form they’re in currently, this is great value, small stake because there’s a large risk involved, but I certainly think Rostov stand a chance here. Looking at the teams each team has played, they’ve played the same teams which is helpful in gauging where each team is at. Lokomotiv drew 2-2 against a poor Anzhi side, Rostov won 1-0. Lokomotiv beat Volga 2-1, Rostov beat them 4-0, Lokomotiv beat Terek Grozny 1-0, Rostov beat them 2-1. Very much worth the odds.
     
  25. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 27:

    Balance: £9.03
    Another day of profit yesterday, slowly gaining back our money and hopefully are on the right track now, I was a bit disappointed with the Rostov bet, they went into half time 1-0, with the game being a fairly open one, they had chances but failed to put them away. Then early in the second half one of their full backs got sent off and they imploded, conceding 2 goals in 7 minutes, 2 minutes after Lokomotivs third went in, Rostovs other full back got sent off and Lokomotiv ended up smashing them 5-0. A disappointing result but one that can’t really be helped! At least Djurgardens finally won us a bet, winning quite comfortably in the end (despite trailing 1-0 at HT!) Only the one bet tomorrow, as there isn’t much on in the leagues I know.

    Champions League Qualifiers PAOK v Schalke 04
    27-08-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Schalke 04 @ 6/5

    Stake: 75p

    Schalke were very unlucky not to win in the last leg, a 30 yard wonder strike got PAOK an equiliser and the match finished 1-1. As I wrote in my writeup for that game, Schalke have an immense squad, and will be really gunning for the win here, and the quality should shine through. Despite the draw in the first leg, they were very dominant, having 64% of the possession, 14 shots to 8 (10 on target) as well as having more corners. Incredible odds for the win, even though Huntelaar still won’t be back, however Farfan (who scored Schalkes goal in the 1st leg) and Draxler will be threats for the PAOK defence.
     
  26. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    put a bit extra with my free bet on djurgardens, very glad they have finally done us a good turn.
     
  27. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 28:

    Balance: £9.93

    Schalke left it late but somehow came through with 10 men to win in the 89th minute. We certainly won’t be backing them in the group stages though, horrific defending and really missed Huntelaar up front, despite the quality of Farfan and Draxler (who had an amazing second half), but finally our luck has changed and we’re very almost back where we started.


    Champions League Qualifiers Zenit St Petersburg v Pacos Ferreira
    28-08-2013 17:00
    To Win to Nil
    Zenit St Petersburg @ 10/11

    Stake: 40p

    I initially wanted Zenit to keep a clean sheet as the bet, but on Paddypower that’s 8/11 (5/6 everywhere else, i’d take that if you’re with a bookie who offers that price!). Zenit smashed the first leg 4-1 winning us a bet in the process, although I feel the scoreline flattered Zenit, they were good in keeping possession but the attacks were wasteful for the most part, and they certainly didn’t deserve the scoreline. Pacos rarely threatened the Zenit defence in open play (looked good from set-pieces though). Hubocan was an absolute rock in the heart of Zenits defence and Pacos could not get past him, hopefully we’ll see him start tomorrow and then i’ll be filled with confidence. I’m expecting Zenit to sit back a lot more this game, but I can certainly see them scoring (they’re 1/20 to score a goal..) if both Danny and Shirokov play then the Pacos defence will certainly have problems.



    Champions League Qualifiers Celtic v Shakhtyor Karagandy
    28-08-2013 19:45
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/6

    Champions League Qualifiers Real Sociedad v Lyon
    28-08-2013 19:45
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 3/10

    Champions League Qualifiers Zenit St Petersburg v Pacos Ferreira
    28-08-2013 17:00
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/6

    Champions League Qualifiers AC Milan v PSV
    28-08-2013 19:45
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals
    Under 4.5 Goals @ 1/6

    Stake: 60p (as an accumulator)

    Great odds for this with a cumulative odds of 21/20. All are decent teams and I can’t see any of these being goal-fests!
     
  28. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 29

    Balance: 8.93

    Gutted the Zenit game blew both our bets, if you'd told me Zenit would score 4 and pacos score 2 I would've told you to do one! Didn't watch the game as I was out but will download it tomorrow and watch where Zenit went wrong, doubly gutted as we were so close to crawling into profit!


    Europa League Qualifiers Slovan Liberec v Udinese
    29-08-2013 18:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Udinese @ 10/11

    Stake: 75p

    Udinese lost the first leg 3-1, but it was a bizarre set of circumstances that lost them the game, they dominated the game and had much better chances. Looking at the stats for the match, Udinese had 59% possession, along with 20 shots (compared to Liberecs 6) with 9 of those on target (compared to Liberecs 4). You can see a few highlights of the match here: http://udinesecalcio.portals.twww.tv/video/0e626e1a1b999ce72a4f27aac2468913.html
    Udinese ended up hitting the woodwork at least twice and had numerous other chances. Liberecs goals were down to a mixture of poor defending and some amazing strikes. Now with a Udinese needing to win by 3 goals to qualify, I’d expect Liberec to sit back and try to absorb as many Udinese attacks as possible, but I also believe Udineses attacking talent to be far superior than the rest of Liberecs team. Should expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win to Udinese.
     
  29. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 30:

    Balance: £8.18

    Well Udinese have well and truely screwed us over there. First half was a mixed bag, they conceded through a counter-attack and Liberec looked lively, springing a few good counters that ended in some good shots and a goal. Udinese were very disappointing, pumping long balls forward which rarely reached their target, and when it did they were surrounded and couldn’t really do anything with it. Second half was a lot better and I was convinced Udinese were going to grab a winner, chance after chance went begging and they were dominating the play. Then they got a red card with 20 minutes left to play, which made any chance of a winning goal diminish quite severely, and it never quite materialised from there. Week 4 writeup will be up later tonight!

    Icelandic Matches KF Fjallabyggdar v Volsungur
    30-08-2013 19:00
    Handicap Betting
    KF Fjallabyggdar (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Stake: 40p

    This is a good value bet in my eyes, Volsungur are dire, I mean really bad. They’ve played 18 games, won 0, drawn 2, lost 16. Of those 16 games lost, 13 of those have covered the -1 handicap. KF are by no means a good team themselves, finding themselves in the relegation spot alongside Volsungur, but with a huge difference in points gained (KF have managed to scrape together 15 points from 18 games, compared to Volsungurs paltry 2). The previous fixture between the teams ended 2-1 to KF, but with the win odds being 4/11 (too low for us to take), i’m prepared to take a risk on the handicap, and hope that the home advantage will cough up the extra goal that the handicap requires, should hopefully end 3-1 to KF.

    German Bundesliga 2 Matches FSV Frankfurt v Greuther Furth
    30-08-2013 17:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Greuther Furth @ 11/10

    Stake: 40p

    Would normally have this down as a slightly higher stake (60-75p for the sake of the challenge), but since today is a 2 selection day and the first bet is a little risky, i’ll play it safe and go for a 40p stake, this means that as long as one of the bets wins, we’ll end up in profit. I’ve mentioned Greuther Furth a few times on here already, I reckon they’ll easily go up as champions and will be backing them as long as as the odds stay decent! Frankfurt are stuck in mid-table 5 games into the season, and I reckon they’ll be a tad higher towards the end of the season, provided their main striker Kapllani keeps banging in the goals, he was their top scorer last season and they’ve retained his services this season, and so far he’s scored 3 goals in Frankfurts first 5 games. Frankfurt have a couple of problems though, if Kaplllani doesn’t score, Frankfurt for the most part don’t score (think Benteke and Villa!), he’s scored 50% of their goals this season. The other problem lies at the back, they’ve conceded a few goals in their opening fixtures (4 goals in 5 games), and against a team of Greuther Furths quality, this could be their downfall. I expect Greuther Furth to take Kapllani out the game, and subsequently go and take advantage of Frankfurts vunerable defence. 1-0 or 2-0 win to Greuther Furth.
     
  30. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 31:

    Off out now, so posting tomorrows bets now, Greuther Furth don’t look like winning despite dominating and having the best chances, just some poor defending by the right back that looks like letting us down, hopefully KF can come through and give us a day of profit.

    French Div 1 Matches Evian Thonon Gaillard v Lyon
    31-08-2013 13:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Lyon @ 5/4

    Stake: 50p

    Lyon have been some very good prices so far this season, winning us money in both of our bets involving them, hopefully they can make that 3rd time lucky here. Lyon started their campaign very strongly, winning 4-0 and 3-1 in their first 2 games, last weekend they played Reims and lost 1-0, watching the game back, I have literally no idea how Reims won, it was one of the most one sided games i’ve ever watched, time after time Lyon fluffed chances, and even put a penalty over the bar. Reims had 2 shots on target according to the stats, and i’m not sure the goal counts for one of them (it was a blocked cross that looped over the keepers head). One of Lyons star players Samuel Umtiti was banned for that game, he’ll be back for this game though, and is a key part of Lyons team this season (despite only being 19). Hopefully we’ll see Gomis back for this after some clarification of whether he’ll be moving or not, if he still doesn’t play a part though, Lyon have a decent replacement in Lacazzete who’s scored 3 times in the league already this season and very much impressed me at the recent U21 Euros. Onto Evian TG now,who find themselves bottom of the table, picking up just 1 point in their first 3 games, looking at the stats and some videos of their home games this season, it looks as if they try to dominate games, being largely dominant on all major stats, I feel they look vunerable on the counter though, and the times i’ve watched Lyon this season, they look very good on the counter-attack (in-fact they only look threatening on the counter for the most part), i’ll chalk this up as a 2-1 win to Lyon.

    English Championship Matches
    Birmingham v Ipswich
    31st of August 2013 3:00 pm
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 2/7

    Football Matches
    English Championship Matches
    Blackburn v Bolton
    31st of August 2013 3:00 pm
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    *Under 3.5 Goals @ 1/3

    English Championship Matches
    Leeds v QPR
    31st of August 2013 12:15 pm
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals @ 3/10

    Stake: 50p (as a treble)

    No heinz this weekend due to the poor showing last weekend (my bad) and the stake limits some bookies impose, we’ll re-visit those as the challenge progresses though, for the time being, i’ll use this account booster which I think is great value for the cumulative odds of just between 6/5 and 5/4. Only 10 Championship games have gone above 3.5 goals so far this season (out of 47 played)
     
  31. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 32:

    Todays bets pretty much summed up our last week and a half, only one game in the Championship ended in over 3.5 goals.....and that was one that we’d included in our treble. Perfect. If we don’t end up in profit from tomorrows bets, i’ll take a few days off and “paper” bet until I feel my form is back to where it usually is (from my past spreadsheets, I can see I have a usual strike rate of 65%, since the start of the challenge i’m on 41%), I find a few days off usually clears the head. So onto tomorrows selections, and i’m afraid the writeups are quite short as i’ve got to dash now!



    Finnish Veikkausliiga FF Jaro v HJK Helsinki
    01-09-2013 16:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    HJK Helsinki @ 8/11

    Stake: 75p


    HJK have a great win-rate away from home, which is odd in this division as the home teams usually end up with a point at the least. They always have a very impressive goal difference, far far better than the arguably best team in the league Honka. HJK will go top with a win here as well, so they’ll be fully gunning for it. The odds are a little less than I would have wanted, but i’m still willing to take them.


    Portuguese Div 2 Matches Moreirense v Oliveirense
    01-09-2013 16:00
    Handicap Betting
    Moreirense (-1.0) @ 7/5

    Stake: 60p

    Moreirense are newly relegated from the Portugese Premier league and look like they’re on another level to the rest of the teams in this league, so far going unbeaten in their first 4 games back, including a massive 7-0 victory a few weeks ago. Oliveirense finished mid-table last season, but now look like they’re going to struggle, picking up just 1 point in their first 3 games. Would have just liked to have taken the win, but too poor odds, but believe the handicap represents good value.
     
  32. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 36:

    Hopefully the break will have done me some good, looking back on the bets, there’s not a lot of the losers I wouldn’t take again if transported back into the past, they have all represented good value in leagues that i’m very familiar with, but for one reason or another (shipping stupid early goals or red cards) we’ve been pretty unlucky. Hopefully this will now change!


    Balance: £7.16

    European U21 Championship Qualifiers Austria U21 v Spain U21
    05-09-2013 19:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Spain U21 @ 4/9

    European U21 Championship Qualifiers Holland U21 v Scotland U21
    05-09-2013 17:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Holland U21 @ 4/11

    Stake: 60p (as a double)

    Very almost made this a 75p stake bet, but lowered the stakes as it’s a bit riskier (aka requires 2 victories rather than just one). A majority of U21 teams are in a transition period after the U21 Euro finals (which a lot of teams players were 22/23, I know, this doesn’t make sense, but if you play any part in qualification, then you can play in the finals), so a lot of the big names (Thiago, Isco, Strootman) will play no part. However, due to the way that every team in Europe apart from England structure their youth teams, the newcomers should have no problem fitting in and starting these games.
    Spain may have lost their 2 stars in Thiago and Isco, but there’s so much quality in their squad still. Sergio Roberto has started 2 games for Barcelonas senior team already so far this season, alongside other such talents as Muniaín who aged 20 has already made 177 appearances for Athletico Bilbao. The Real Madrid youngster Morata will be one to watch in this game, he was understudy for Rodrigo for most of the recent U21 tournament, scoring practically every time he came on as a substitute. However Rodridgo is now 22 and subsequently not in the team, so i’d expect Morata to start. Austria certainly don’t have a bad team (which is why i’m not looking at handicaps for this game), most of them play in the Austrian league, with some at Bundesliga clubs (mostly on loan to the lower table Bundesliga clubs). Looking at the number of caps that the Austrian team have, it seems a lot of them lack experience at U21 level, and I imagine the Spanish side will overwhelm them. A poor price, but I really don’t fancy the handicap, so the double with Holland which is a similar sort of game, looks a lot more appealing.
    Holland were one of the teams I very much under-estimated at the start of the Euros, but ended up making a fair bit of money off them towards the end. Players like Wijnaldum, Vrij, Maher + Strootman all performed admirably, sadly most of them are now too old to play for the U21 side, however Maher remains, and will be a key to this Dutch side for a few more years, and a mainstay of the Dutch main team for many years to come. Aged just 20 he’s already got 68 Eredivisie appearances to his name, as well as 16 Europa League games, averaging 5 games per goal, which is a great return for a midfielder so young. I haven’t found a definitive list of the Dutch squad, but it will most certainly include Maher and the new Chelsea signing Van Ginkel, who will dominate the midfield against a poor Scotland squad (who recently lost 6-0 to England U21s!). The double pays just under evens (0.97/1) and looks good to me!
     
  33. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 37:

    Well I was proven wrong about the handicaps yesterday, both Holland and Spain absolutely destroyed it. Sadly couldn’t find a stream for the Holland game, but Spain were amazing, Morata as I said in my writeup is a great finisher, and netted a first half hat-trick (and should have had another but chose to pass instead)

    Balance: £7.74

    World Cup Qualifiers Scotland v Belgium
    06-09-2013 20:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Belgium @ 3/4

    Stake: 75p

    Belgium have an incredible squad, that is pretty much made up of the elite of the premier league. Kompany, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Hazard, Dembele, Benteke, Lukaku and De Bruyne all play for Belgium, along with some other top class players (Alderweireld and Mertens). Belgium go into this game on top of their group, undefeated for 6 games in all competitions, including good wins over USA and some teams that are known for their resilient defences (Serbia + Slovakia), their last game was a 0-0 draw against France (a good result i’d say). Belgium also won 2-0 in the previous qualifier between the 2 in November last year. Scotland have been in poor form recently, winning just 1 of their 7 world cup qualifiers, the crowd in Hampden Park will certainly be behind the Scotland team but I expect Belgiums class to come through.

    World Cup Qualifiers Chile v Venezuela
    07-09-2013 01:30
    Handicap Betting
    Chile (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Stake: 60p

    Chile won us one of our first bets of the challenge when they destroyed Iraq last month, i’m confident it’ll be a similar (maybe not 6-0 though..) story here. The key players Sanchez, Isla, Vidal and Beausejour have all been named in the team and i’d expect them to start. Chile are currently in 4th place in the South American qualifying group (1-4 go to the world cup) and will be looking to stay there (a little bit of heat from Uruguay + Venezuela in 5th + 6th), so will be going for the win in style. Venezuela may also have to resort to playing a drastically weakened team after 20 members of their team caught food poisoning (http://metro.co.uk/2013/09/04/venez...as-stomach-bug-leaves-squad-laid-low-3950559/) so this represents a great bet for me.

    World Cup Qualifiers Poland v Montenegro
    06-09-2013 19:45
    Win-Draw-Win
    Poland @ evens

    Stake: 50p

    Montenegro have been one of the surprises of the World Cup Qualification so far, I thought Poland would be the biggest threat to England qualifying, but it turns out Montenegro have been the ones to watch. Poland have a great squad, The Dortmund trio of Lewandowski, Błaszczykowski and Piszczek work so well together (although Piszczek is injured), the midfield that Poland are taking is strong, with a good mix of established players and youth. The previous game between the 2 teams finished 2-2, and i’m sure that the home advantage will give Poland the edge here. Another interesting thing that might influence the game is the absence of one of Montenegros best players, he’s the top scorer for them so far in this competition and looks to be absent from the team (Deliba*i*). However the Polish defence will still have to deal with Jovetic and Vucinic!

    World Cup Qualifiers Peru v Uruguay
    07-09-2013 03:30
    Win-Draw-Win
    Uruguay @ 7/4

    Stake: 40p

    This is an amazing price, I was fully expecting this to be around evens, was stunned when I saw the price! Peru aren’t a bad team, they have a few stand out names (Farfan + Pizzaro) but for the most part their squad consists of players playing in the Peruvian league, by contrast just 3 of the 26 Uruguayan players called up for the game play their football in Uruguay, the Uruguayan players are great, their defence is a little dodgy, their midfield is good, but the strikeforce is stunning. Cavani, Suarez and Forlan make up an amazing trio that score goals for fun (as shown in the recent 4-2 win over Japan, in which they were a similar price if I remember correctly). A mental price that’s certainly worth a small stake.
     
  34. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 38:

    Haven't got time for a full write-up at the moment (will do it tomorrow morning!) but the bet is:

    International Friendlies Brazil v Australia
    07-09-2013 20:15
    To Win to Nil
    Brazil @ 5/6

    Stake: 60p
     
  35. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 38:

    A strong day yesterday saw our balance fly up, only kicker was a 90th minute Poland goal being disallowed due to offside, but a good day nonetheless. Were a shed-load of games that I wanted bets on but didn’t want too many bets (4 was already probably too many!). Onto today!

    Balance: £9.16

    International Friendlies Brazil v Australia
    07-09-2013 20:15
    To Win to Nil
    Brazil @ 5/6

    Stake: 60p


    This bet is a pretty obvious one, I initially wanted handicaps, but there’s not much value there, but this also represents good value I believe. This games being played in Brazil, and Brazil have an incredible home record, they are unbeaten for over 50 years, which is stunning. Looking at the squads both teams have taken, i’m very confident on a Brazil win, Australia have a very old squad, and to be honest, they aren’t that good. The Brazil squad is strong, and looking at the players they’ve taken, I think they’ll lineup with Maicon at right back, Thiago Silva + Dante in the middle with Marcelo on the left. I believe that will be far too strong for the Australian team (who are without Cahill as well). This is the squad that Australia are taking: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia_national_association_football_team#Current_squad i’ll admit that I haven’t really heard of any of the players (which is a surprise!) but the teams they play for aren’t of the greatest quality.
     

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