Christmas Werewolf - Day 2

From what I can make out there is no way that Happy cant be on team good. It is worth thinking about though, as it is a common evil team tactic to spread misinformation.

However, Skyla is new to the game so it is probably more likely to be a genuine error. It cannot however be discounted.

 

We're basically in the same position as yesterday with two players named as good and we can't be certain which pair of messages is the Seer.

So lynch a named player and hope this tells us something or a random?

I haven't checked back but presume everyone has posted today?

 

Alexa, who should I vote for in werewolf?

Sorry, I don't know that one ‍♂️

 

We can easily which messages pair up - but don't know who posted them.

Ashdon and I have a 50% chance of being definitively good which is higher than someone not viewed. So what is the point in that?

 

The point is that if you or Ashdon are evil, we would know which messages are from the seer.

 

Yes, two clear pairs of messages but not sure which is Seer and which is Alpha.

HH24 is confirmed good so 4/14 evil players remain so a random pick out of everyone means about 70% likely to hit a good player I think?

My maths isn't good enough to work out further conditional probability on the basis that you and Ashdon have been named (if that's even possible)! Can anyone else help?

 

Fair argument although if show as good then plays into evil's hands. Obvs I know I'm good but then I would say that!

 

of the two who would you go for? like me ashdon seemed to forget the game started yesterday until quite late in the day. both messages were in by the time made our initial posts, so that presumably reduces the chances of ashdon being evil as he could only be the beta, gamma wolf or the traitor. steve harrow however could be the alpha, beta, gamma or traitor?

have i got that right?

 

I'm very confused by this maths!

 

3 wolves but conveniently ignoring the traitor?

 

yep you are indisputably good at this point. i really hope the guardian protects you tonight happy, as i always think your instincts are very good and often correct in this game.

 

Day 2 and all we have are more stats and less solid foundations to work with.

 

Not a peep from Sinatra or Ashdon yet today…

 

He’s currently asking Alexa.

 

Did message once to be fair, don't have much else to add right about now apart from wishing we had signed the younger Amrabat, what a player.

 

Apologies - I skimmed over and didn’t see it.

 

Crikey, what a shocker of an afternoon to come back to catch up and find I have been named.

Off the back of two named good’s again, it sounds like I’m probably toast as I was more inclined to think message 1 and it’s attempted codification would be a Seer.

 

Lol defamation of character! I was a Mason in the game just gone

 

I can confirm that I also don’t think it would be likely to go for a mega bluff like that.

In my mind I am instinctively thinking I’ve probably been named here by a Wolf in order to just enhance the levels of confusion and lack of direction we currently have that follows a “Good” Seer view.

Having been Seer only a couple of weeks back, my mind still seems set in that whole: what should I do if this message comes, or what if they do this…

 

Sorry! I was busy doing other sorts of maths (stuff that is barely comprehendible by myself). Far less exciting than werewolf that's for sure. Looks like Skyla has stolen my job!

 

Let’s see how far you can take this.

I want to see effective implementation of BIDMAS, and potentially some reference to sin/cos/tan, and some trigonometry to tell enable us to triangulate how far it is from the village pub to the site of Norn’s murder and WAS’s unfortunate lynching.

 

I learnt it as BODMAS, with the O meaning Order, my son learnt BIDMAS, with the I as Index.

 

A squared + B squared = 2 hours remaining.