Self Driving Cars

They're here without safety drivers now. Once the technology is proven then I honestly think car ownership will be out the window in years rather than decades. This is the real revolution.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41909594

 

Yep nstead of buying a car you will subscribe to a self driving car service. Instead of being parked 95% of the time, self driving cars will be constantly on the move awaiting the next order.

 

The Japanese have come up one which you buy and then when you are not using it, it goes off and collects fares as a taxi to pay for its own running costs.

 

I can't see it as being workable in the historic and car unfriendly streets of the UK. Especially in the suburbs and cities. The US which has far more space and more set-up for cars, fair enough.

For example.
On my way to work at the moment there's a road which has parking both sides meaning it's single width for traffic and there's minimal passing places where houses have dropped kerbs and hence no parking (although that isn;t always observed).
Currently to screw things over there's roadworks with single file traffic lights in addition. There is space for 2 cars to queue at this red light. A third car enters the queue and its far enough back from the roadworks that there's a parked car either side of the road and it's therfor blocked for oncoming traffic.
How is a robotic car going to pre-empt this issue realise that it needs to hang back some 200 yards to the previous available passing place to ensure that the road doesn't become gridlocked?
Even some actual drivers have been too thick recently to sort that one out.

Personally I think the only workable solution in robotic cars for this crowded island is to have mandatory systems which take over when you enter a motorway or dual carriageway. Travel can then safely be controlled automatically at speeds higher than current limits so that people would agree to the loss of independence. Effectively it's a step on from these so called smart motorways that are springing up everywhere now.

 

The cars will be able to communicate and learn. It takes the stupid people away from situations exactly like this where they cause the most problems.

It will begin as in the U.S. with trials in small areas. Over here an example area would be Rickmansworth for example. The bugs in the system and mapping will get ironed out until it's reliable and trusted. The same will then be happening in other areas until they overlap and small trial areas become medium sized with exchanges of data between them. Once the whole of the UK is covered then a national database can be constantly updated by every car on the grid. It's probably happening already.

EDIT: From your earlier post, the parked cars wouldn't be there in the first place.

 

You're probably right, but I think it relies on an overnight enforced change though as phasing something like this is is just too problematic.

Given the current government's record on getting things done in a reasonable amount of time I think I'll probably be long gone before it ever happens.


As an aside I'd like to see a driver MOT Say every 5/10 years which tests basic skills and competancey.
I'd also make owning the Honda Jazz illegal and lack of indicator use a capital offence. I'd also like some sort of rear mounted tazer type device that automatically fires if an Audi badge comes within 1m of the boot of my car.

 

Agree, it needs to happen quickly. It'll happen before your 50th!

My daughter drives a Jazz due to horrific insurance costs otherwise. A black box means she has no choice but to drive safely and annoy others. Apologies.

 

I suppose that's the benefit of having a car that only fogeys will drive and no one wants to steal. My venom was really directed at the pensioners that should really hand their licences back. Atually the Jazz is a pretty decent car. If they stuck the engine in it from the Civic Type R along with a semi auto I may be tempted.

 

It's only a matter of time before driving is dead.

As soon as self-driving cars are approved for the open road, they'll immediately be safer than real humans because the safety standards will be absolutely astronomical. Within a year, insurance companies will have data proving self driving cars are safer than people, thus spiking insurance costs for those who drive themselves while dropping it for self-driving car owners. As more and more self driving cars hit the road, insurance costs for those not using them will get higher and higher. Eventually it will hit the point where governments will be forced to address the fact that a) humans are far more dangerous than computers and b) self driving cars keep vehicles off the streets. They'll ultimately ban people from driving themselves.

It's going to happen, probably inside the next 10 years (except the total ban on human drivers, will will probably take a bit longer).

I suspect most babies in the next couple of years probably won't remember a time when humans drove themselves by the time they go to uni.

EDIT: and for anyone who is thinking "Ten years? No way it could change in that timeframe", consider this: almost exactly 10 years ago, the first iPhone hit the market. Think about how much things have changed since then...

 

Whoops!

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...g-bus-car-las-vegas-crash-navya-a8045026.html

Difficult to know what really happened. Did the driver of the truck try and take a liberty, in the expectation that the "driver" of the bus would let him? But there was no driver to let him?

If you know what I mean.

 

Once we can get over the obvious prejudices against driverless vehicles we'll be one step closer.

"The shuttle did its job in that the sensors hit on the truck, knew the truck was coming and stopped as it was supposed to do."

 

In 20 years this will be the only way most of us get to drive a car I imagine.



I do this myself without the VR headset, great fun.

 

That looks like a lot of fun.

Let's face it though, driving for real is no fun anymore. Too many cars, too many idiots, too many rules, too expensive. It's a cr*pfest.
I took my Son to Birmingham a while back really early on a Sunday morning. There was nothing about on the M40 and we were in the middle of nowhere so I took it up to 100mph just for a short while. He was so happy to go so fast but I felt desperately sorry that he'd never experience the same fun as I used to have when I was young and driving. Those days are loooong gone.

Some of things we got up to would lose me my license now.

 

Slower is fine because there will no traffic lights or jams. My average speed, (according the the car), is nearly always close to 20mph on any journey to or from work.

 

I already discussed with the Mrs that by the time our daughter grows old enough to have a car, she will probably be incredulous that we used to drive ourselves and not let the computer do it.

 

It's being tackled already ... in ten years London will be an empty shell.

 

But where's the reminder of the punishment for this offence? I can't help noticing just how much space there's is available on, picking two sites entirely at random, Stringing Corner and Shenley Road roundabouts - space that could be filled with gibbets, stocks, crucified bodies of offenders...

 

I find it very unlikely that this technology will take off in a big way here anytime soon.

Infrastructure - we can barely replace a pothole in a timely fashion let alone undertake the upgrades to every road, let alone how small.

Capacity - how to replace the morning commute? How will all these roving cars pick up 10's of millions of commuters each morning and do the school runs? It's impossible unless the car is already at your home in which case you own it. Chances of saving any money on your commute = zero.

Flexibility - is this driverless car going to take me down an unmarked forest road to a bike race? Or to a holiday cabin in the middle of nowhere. Is it going throw itself in reverse onto the side of the singletrack to allow another vehicle to pass? Try taking one on holiday to the narrow hilly streets of St Ives.

You could use them on motorways, but then what about when you come off? You might as well use a thing called a 'train'.

Some of the tech may be adapted, but it won't take over.

 

Will it take you to the pub and take you home again after a few drinks? Anything else is secondary.

 

I believe the legislation already exists to ensure that someone fit and qualified to drive has to be responsible. Unfortunately you can't use a Tesla as a personal pub taxi.

 

A thing called a 'taxi' will do that as will a 'bus'. Or there is an option to walk to a pub nearby.

Getting a lift back might be nice, but your car won't be any cheaper to have/lease/run.

 

Where would they be then? There is a serious capacity/logistics problem. On any given day the UK uses maybe 20m cars. If they are not parked on street where are they? And how are they suddenly available between 6 and 9am to take everyone to work. If they are in constant movement, then it's a constant jam. They can't park somewhere else because they all then need to get to your home. It's an over-engineered solution.

I'd be all for streets clear of parked cars. As a cyclist, traffic holds me up every day because it doesn't have the space to pass. Drivers think it's me taking up one yard of space. But it's the cars parked on either side of the road that stop two fat arsed Q7s from passing each other, not me and they hold me up.

 

This in spades.

I think I've mentioned it before. All new planning applications should provide 1 off street parking space per bedroom.
The problem is we're packing more and more people into smaller houses with garage and loft conversions but have no infrastructure to support the increased population.

Obviously housing built in the 30s which was never planned to have multiple car ownership you can't do much about, but if they want to then extend, they'll need to provide the parking.

Extending has become the norm due to punitive house prices and stamp duty. Stamp duty really needs to be abolished and taxation raised on income.
Kickstarting the housing market will also be a boost to the economy for associated trades.

I'm lucky enough to have 3 off street parking places including my garage which I actually keep the meistermobile in rather than junk I don't want. If I didn't I would have bulldozed my front garden and created it.

Maybe we could have a council tax rebate of £10 a month for every off street parking space we retain as usable?

 

Working from home and making the little darlings walk to school for a start.

I go into the office 4 days out of 5 on average. I really need to be there 1/2 a day in 5 on average, but my Japanese bosses either don't trust us or need to see "bums on seats". I expect the same is true for millions of us in the country.
As for the little darlings being dropped off outside the school, well there is absolutely no need in almost all cases if my own kids schools are the norm.

That's 3/4 of the traffic gone instantly by just getting business owners to trust their staff and parents to encourage walking/cycling/scootering to school.

 

100% agree with this, but it's nothing we can't do now. We just don't. People love their cars.

 

I agree. I'm lucky that I work from home 4 days out of 5, I drop my younger child at school in the mornings he rides his scooter my older child catches the bus as his secondary school is the other side of Watford from where I live. Even though my wife and I both drive, we only have one car as I don't need to use it that often due to me being at home most of the time.

The walk from my house to my son's primary school is about 12 minutes so obviously isn't far, there are people who I know live much closer to the school yet insist on driving their children because their little snowflakes couldn't possibly walk.

 

I agree that people will be far more resistant to give up their cars than many suggest on here.

However, it will start to make little financial sense to have your own car. People only drive at very particular times of the day. Why spend tens of thousands of pounds for your car to be parked, when you can get a taxi everywhere for far cheaper?

Without the cost of labour, with increasingly efficient renewable energy and with a huge market with very few barriers to entry, I can see prices for cabs plummeting.

Driving can be fun, but generally, being driven around whilst you read a book/ get to play with your kids/ play games or watch TV on your devices/ being able to have a few drinks or trusting that your kids will be able to get home safely is a win in nearly every sense. Whilst initially I see companies wanting a sober person in the car, I doubt that this will last as removing this rule will dramatically cut down on drink driving accidents.

Sucks for the cab drivers though.

 

Problem is everyone wants a cab at the same time.
There aren't enough cabs.
Unless we can stagger the working day or increase working from home it's not goign to happen and there are still a lot of people that can't get decent broadband.

The only answer is reliable cheap public transport (buses as the tubes are at capacity). That won't be reliable until the cars disappear and cars won't disappear until public transport is reliable. Catch22. All you can do is price people out of cars, it's getting there. Then you get no one doing the low paid jobs and you have to import foreign workers who live in places of multiple occupancy to get those jobs done.

The only proper fix is to move jobs to lower populated areas Invest in the north. It's an area of focus with projects like media city etc. but needs to be magnified many times over.

 

- The New York Times, January 13, 1920.

- The Quarterly Review, March, 1825.

- Scientific American, January 2, 1909.

- Steve Ballmer, USA Today, April 30, 2007.

Erik Sandberg-Diment, "The Executive Computer", The New York Times (December 8, 1985).

- Moose, WFCforums.com, November 2017.

 

We have already been taught lessons that the dinosaurs of the black cab lobby and Sadiq Khan will block any attempt to make cab practices benefit from new tech unfortunately.

 

I can't see the Beatles amounting to much either.

I could employ your quotes for my argument too.

The success of iPhones and laptops, indeed cars themselves, does not suggest people wish to share stuff. Which brings us back to ownership, which let's face it is what capitalist growth demands.

Railroads presented little technological challenge. Just lay track through empty country. Try starting a new one now like HS2 and it's suddenly very difficult. Imagine redesigning the entire road network of the UK.

We got to the Moon in the late 60s. What has happened since in space travel?

Development of an idea to its potential is not always assured.

 

imagine if cities replaced all their buses and stuff with a fleet of automated uberpool type cars! no more bus stops and bus lines and bus timetables! just convenient and subsidised travel for the masses!

 

I don't see it taking off with normal sensible English folk in my life time.

We are far more likely to end up in a middle ground of assisted driving - lane departure, auto cruise spreading ubiquitous on cars

Now your average johnnie foreigner goes in for all this sort of nonsense so I can see roads filled with self driving bubble cars in Japan or Paris or New York