We have 5 away games and 6 at home. As far as I'm concerned, if we pick up a single away point it will be a bonus. It's now all about what we do at home. Fortunately our 6 remaining home fixtures are all winnable. I expect 11 points from our remaining home fixtures. 3 wins, 2 draws sounds very achievable to me. I'm a little more concerned after today's results. Very good wins for Huddersfield and Newcastle. There are no no-hopers this season. It could be a high total this season, and I expect 40 points will be needed at least. The third from bottom side is on 26 points from 27 matches, so a point a game is about the average, making 38 points. I can't comfortably predict a higher total than 41 points for us, so it's going to be a bit nervy. As long as we're 4 points clear of the trapdoor before going to Old Trafford, I'll be very happy.
You're not alone. See posts #516 and #517. The 6 home games are winnable but many are against fellow strugglers, equally desperate and fighting for points.
I'm hanging a lot of my faith on returning injured players. It's vital we get some back or else getting 41 points will be very tough.
Well we might find ourselves closer to the bottom 3 with Liverpool and Arsenal away next to play after that.
I can't see us getting 11/10 point from the 6 home games so I'm hoping Stoke, WBA and Huddersfield don't get more than about 36. My guess is we will finish on 38. 5 away defeats. W2 D2 L2 at home.
The last time that the team in the third relegation spot had this many points at this stage of the season was in 2010/11. In the end, Birmingham and Blackpool both went down with 39 points, and Wolves stayed up with 40. Interestingly, after 27 games (same stage as we are now) Birmingham were 15th, Blackpool 12th, and Wolves were bottom...
Ha, I'd literally just done some research and was about to post about the 10/11 season when you posted that. Here's the 27 game standings for anyone interested: As you say though even in that year it only ended up at 40pts to survive. There's a reason the average is 37pts.
I just had a go at this predictor thing: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ Even being super generous to the teams below us I only got all of the bottom three on to 37pts. 17th ended up on 38pts. And that's with West Brom pulling out a crazily good run. I'm pretty confident it's not going to be a 40pt survival target this season.
Is it squeaky bum time in February? Well to answer my own question yes it is. It’s not over till it’s mathematically impossible to survive but remember we have a sort of bonus point with our goal difference. If we get at least 4pts from the next two we can go to Liverpool and Arsenal with a bit more confidence. Lose to Everton and WBA and I’m sorry but that may just do it. Morale could be on the floor and we could be needing snookers to stay up. Darn it really makes the defeat at Wet Soam seem worse somehow.
We'll be fine, the worrying is unwarranted, there is more than enough in this squad & injuries on way back. We have seen & been in the same situation every year since coming up & no reason to think this season will be different, but now doubt we have a stronger squad. Only issue is we are a completely confidence based, Jekyll & Hyde team & this needs to be addressed next season.
You could be right. I've done something similar. I think Southampton, Stoke and West Brom are in real trouble. Brighton and Palace could slide back as well. Southampton have 7 of their last 11 matches away, which is a lot. West Ham and Brighton have each got 5 fixtures against top 6 opposition in their remaining 11 games. We've got a very good fixture list at home.
It won’t be 40 points agree. FWIW bookie current estimate is 4th bottom has 38. 3rd bottom 36. And they think we will get 43. We are still in a very favourable position and would have to go some to go down.
I agree. Apart from Huddersfield away any point away is a massive bonus but we could not wish for a better run in of home fixtures. It’s all in our own hands.
The one thing this season has shown is its impossible to predict, in advance, any result. How many of Sunday's results would you have predicted correctly if you'd completed it yesterday ? I still see us getting to 38 and in current form I think there will be a lot of clubs at around that figure and not many below it.
And yet you are confident this we will lose all 6 away so not so impossible to predict. The fact is we are better positioned than many of a candidates with a favourable run of fixtures as well. The odds of 16-1 reflect that so don’t fret too much this next fortnight!
I didn't do it on the basis that I'm some sort of prediction genius. I just applied trends, including the one that sees a few teams at the bottom over-achieve in the last few games of the season compared to what came before, and threw in a lot of shocks too. Draws against Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea losing to teams currently in the relegation zone, Man United drawing lots at home etc. And of course, all of the teams in the bottom 6 can't perk up and achieve a 2pts per game average because they've still got a lot of games against each other to go. I think for the safety margin to be 40pts or more it'll need WBA and one other team to disintegrate completely. What it did show is that it's definitely in our hands, which is news to no one.
You don’t want to go upsetting me, I’m harder than Troy don’t you know. Look, I’m sticking my middle finger up at you as I type
What the f**k are you talking about??!! Lose to Everton and West From and there'll be nine games left to play! Your rationale behind us going down seems to be based on us losing all of our games and everyone else winning theirs - which I can assure you, ain't gonna happen! For the record, 38 points will be enough to stay up. WBA, Palace an Huddersfield will go down. There - you can stop worrying now
With respect, lose to Everton and West Brom would hardly give us the confidence to expect results to come flying out of the bag against others!
To be fair if we do lose to Everton and WBA the landscape will have changed dramatically and we will be bang in it. That result combination is about a 10% chance though. Far more likely we get 2/3/4 points from those games which will still see us in a decent position.
Ok, I have read all the post on this thread (well about 10% of them) and nobody has given an absolute assurance that we are definitely, beyond doubt, staying up. You need to do better, as I need the concern that we will be relegated to abate.
I think the point is you can't apply trends. There are 11 teams caught up in this and any 3 of the 11 could go down. 10 are within 6 points of 19th with 11 games to go. Clearly. A decent run of results and we'll be fine. A really **** run and we probably won't. A decent run will probably require us to get a decent return from our 6 home games and nick something from the 5 away games. As Teide says above, lose to Everton and WBA at home and a decent run will be that much more difficult.
FYI here are the next 3 fixtures for the bottom 10 teams West Brom Huddersfield (H) Watford (A) Leicester (H) Stoke Leicester (A) Southampton (A) Man City (H) Southampton Burnley (A) Stoke (H) Newcastle (A) Huddersfield West Brom (A) Tottenham (A) Swansea (H) Swansea Brighton (A) West Ham (H) Huddersfield (A) Crystal Palace Tottenham (H) Man Utd (H) Chelsea (A) Brighton Swansea (H) Arsenal (H) Everton (A) Newcastle Bournemouth (A) Liverpool (A) Southampton (H) West Ham Liverpool (A) Swansea (A) Burnley (H) Watford Everton (H) West Brom (H) Arsenal (A) Bournemouth Newcastle (H) Leicester (A) Tottenham (H)
Simple solution, bang £20 on us being relegated @ 16-1 with skybet and when we don't go down smile and say I knew it. If and a very big if we do get relegated get totally smashed and pay for the championship season ticket with your winnings.
Theoretically but we and muff have thrashed Chelsea in the last 2 weeks and Newcastle beat Man U. WBA Chelsea tonight will be interesting. Really need Chelsea to find some form and win that to crush WBA morale, though a home game against Huddersfield next up looks fairly easy...what the hell do we want there ? A 0-0 with a few red cards ?
Fortunately for them they are playing us so they will most likely pick up 3 points and a nice decrease in their negative goal difference.
Have you had a go at the predictor thing? You can't post saying it's all so unpredictable and there are no trends at the same time as predicting it's going to be a high survival mark this year and maybe more than 40pts. The only trends I applied were favourable to the teams below us. If, as is probably more likely, they bum along as they have all season we'll be safe with a couple more wins.
Out of interest, would anyone really be that upset if we were to get relegated? Want us to stay up but it's not the end of the world.
