Relegation watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by IRB, Dec 12, 2017.

?

Are we going to get relegated?

Poll closed May 24, 2018.
  1. No

    87 vote(s)
    79.8%
  2. Yes

    22 vote(s)
    20.2%
  1. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    If we win 4 & lose 7, we get 12 points.

    If we draw 11, that’s 11 points.

    We’ve been poor at beating the lesser lights at home.

    Interesting to see how Gracia sets up.
     
  2. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    David, excellent as ever.

    Have you factored in the ongoing decimation of our squad by injury?

    By Easter, Gracia unable to field 8 fit men so all subsequent games forfeited.

    Mind you, if Pep continues to ‘make a point’ & field ever reducing match day squads, Citeh will forfeit their last 2 games & suffer a L***! style points implosion.

    Uncertain times await.
     
  3. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Absolutely, I’m not proud. If we’re the only club in for him it might tell us even more about his character though. West Brom will very likely want him off the wage bill, will we match what he’s on though? If we don’t, will he come for PL football? Or will he sit in the championship on a higher wage?

    Either way that’s WBA down though, isn’t it?
     
  4. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    They are home to Huddersfield next. Fail to win that and they are as good as down.
    I would happily take Gibbs and their keeper is pretty decent too !
     
  5. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Let's hope Gibbs isn't the only left-back available in the summer!
     
  6. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Is he really that good? I had an admittedly quick look on their forum tonight and he's copping a fair bit of flak on there for his performances last night and in general recently.
     
  7. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    No. I don't think he is.
     
  8. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    The WBA game will be a MASSIVE game as we all know how hard teams fight when they are scrapping to survive! We will need to put in a top performance if we are going to get the 3 points we need from that game, it won't be easy :eek:
     
    Banjo likes this.
  9. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    Still think it's too early to write off West Brom, they need an average of 2 points a game to get to 40 but they haven't lost that many. They aren't no hopers
     
  10. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    It's all relative. Comparing him to Zeegelaar or Holebas, then yes, he's bloody fantastic.
     
    Watfordftw, Jumbolina and UEA_Hornet like this.
  11. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I think all our early home games will be massive, starting with Everton. If we win that one, then we go on to West Brom, win that too, then the pressure is off when we go to Liverpool and Arsenal. We need at least 4 points from those two home games, if not 6.

    The flop at West Ham ranks up the pressure in the next game.

    I'm really surprised to see how poorly West Brom and Southampton are fairing. West Brom look virtually doomed now, so they will see Watford as their last chance, which could make them very dangerous. They have a lot of decent players in their side. Foster, Rondon, Gibbs, Sturridge, Evans, Dawson. Ok that's not a great side, but I wouldn't have predicted they would be bottom on just 20 points.
     
    Forzainglese likes this.
  12. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    So am I.
     
  13. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    "there are no easy games at this level"
     
  14. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Yes. Yes they are.
     
  15. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    They need to double their points total. It's taken them 27 games to get 20 points. They need to get 20 more in the final 11 games. They are down.
     
  16. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    the bottom three all have much better squads than us, I'm baffled by their league position. Palace and west ham do too. Our squad should finish 14th/15th.
     
    Travis Bickle likes this.
  17. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    If we get 3 or 4 points from Everton and WBA we are virtually safe in my opinion. Should do it as well. Everton rancid away form and WBA are rancid in general.
     
  18. Leighton Buzzer

    Leighton Buzzer Reservist

    I have a friend whom I occasionally drink with who is an Arsenal supporter, and he does not rate him too highly. His comment was "If I was Watford, I would be looking for someone better than Gibbs".
     
  19. Oscar calling

    Oscar calling Squad Player

  20. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    No they aren't. Leicester had 18 points after 27 matches and ended on 41. For what it's worth, Hull went down on 35 having had 26 points after 27 matches. I'm sure there are other examples as well.

    Personally, I think we should be just about ok (again) but considering West Brom's next few matches they are far from down. There is a difference from being close to us, and being close to those around them. 2 wins in a row changes everything.
     
  21. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    WBA just sacked chairman and chief exec !
     
    lutonh8a likes this.
  22. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Of course nothing is impossible, but Leicester's run was exceptional. It's not the norm. They went on the continue that run the following season and won the league. Their form was that of Champions in the run in. West Brom would have to win at least 6 of their final 11 games. They've only won 3 of their first 27!!

    Not impossible but not likely either.
     
  23. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    Consequences of appointing Pardew which has lead to worse results than what got Pulis the sack. Oh and possibly signing Sturridge on loan without spotting he was in a wheelchair
     
  24. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I have sympathy for WBA, it’s fair to say Pullis wouldn’t be bottom and it’s not a stretch to say they probably would’ve be bottoms three. You can’t blame them for sacking Pullis, how long can anybody put up with paying to see that every week? But the alternative looks to be certain relegation. The mistake wasn’t sacking Pullis, but rather not having a suitable replacement lined up that wasn’t Pardew.
     
  25. AndrewH63

    AndrewH63 Reservist

    Any team achieving 17 points on more from the last 11 games would be an exceptional run of form. To get 23 would be remarkeable. On the basis that three of the bottom four cannot achieve an extra 14 points, 41 will be safe. We should hope for at least one more away point and 10 from our remaining six home games. The Chelsea result means that failing to get three points from the away games against Stoke and West Ham was not a disaster. The fact that everyone starts to play teams around them dramatically impacts the outcome. If WBA beat Huddersfield its a better result for us than them losing to Huddersfield and then us beating WBA. We can afford WBA making up ground, but need to put as much distance as we can between ourselves and Southampton, Stoke, Huddersfield, Swansea and Crystal Palace. We want Bournemouth to beat Newcastle and West Ham to beat Swansea
     
  26. The uninformed

    The uninformed Academy Graduate

    So depressing to be here after the predictions of world domination after Arsenal at home
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  27. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I still feel as though we will finish pretty much in the same position as we are now. There is no doubt the next 2 home games our vital and 2 wins will pretty much guarantee our survival so that probably won’t happen!!
     
    Davidmsawyer, lutonh8a and wfc4ever like this.
  28. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Another question lots of us are asking is will 38 points or 40 points be enough, and the answer is it depends how cautious you want to be. I therefore ran the prediction model for 1,000 seasons to check the potential outcomes.


    Indeed you could argue even 40 points isn’t enough,

    • There is a 1% chance we will need more than 40 points to survive - with a 1 in a thousand chance that we would need 43 points (eek!).
    • If we get 40 points that will be enough to survive in 95.1% of outcomes - so that is a very safe target.
    • If we get 38 points there is a 73% chance that we would survive.
    • 37 points is the most likely number of points required, but there is 53% chance it wouldn’t be enough so don’t bank on that outcome.
    • And if we are very lucky there is a 3/1000 chance that 31 points will be enough. Can we garner a draw from any of our remaining games?!?
    Here is a spread of the outcomes:

    [​IMG]
     
    EB Hornet, Banjo, Watfordftw and 2 others like this.
  29. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Squad Player

    As a maths graduate I always groan at football fans attempting to do 'statistics'...

    But this... is excellent and mathematically rigorous. Thank you, sir.
     
  30. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Actually could do with them winning that.
     
  31. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Give me a sneak preview of the end of season table and I'll tell you what results I want !
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  32. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I'll put a bet on Huddersfield winning.
     
  33. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Thanks! I need to do a bit more work on the underlying odds, but it isn’t too far off based on comparing to other sources I’m using.
     
    Forzainglese and ITK platypus like this.
  34. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    In those 1000 seasons, how many times do we win the Prem?

    Within the next, erm, 25 years?

    (Otherwise not bothered.)
     
  35. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    You just keeping putting your bets on whoever we are playing and we won't need to worry about other team's results !!
     

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