FA Cup - The Road To Wembley - We Made it to The Final

Balotelli was just a sh1t Balotelli.

 

Sorry if posted elsewhere. Skip to 9.30. Nice segment with Foster & Gomes talking about the cup.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episo...its-on-the-line-5-chris-stark-fulfils-a-dream

 

Exactly!

 

Was just thinking this.

Obviously a favourable home tie to Millwall, Swansea or Brighton would be ideal, however our first team on their game are pretty much a match for anyone outside city's first 11.

 

After the Doncaster v Palace game, when they'd shown the Swansea v Brentford highlights, the panellists talked about who was left in the Cup.

They didn't even mention us FFS!!!

There are only 7 teams left in the competition...

 

Yes I know, but a home draw would be novel!

 

It's the line acre factor he doesn't like us!

 

Could someone please explain to me why the bookmakers have decided Palace have a better chance of winning the Cup
than Watford? Thanks.

 

I’m actually quite pleased all the higher placed sides went through. There’s now 2 of the big 6 (one being the all conquering Man City) and 4 of the top 8, and 6 Prem teams. Gives it more value if we go on and win it! Teams taking it seriously now, final 8 sides, game on!

 

It's because they have the better side of the draw.

 

Aren’t longer odds a good thing for those that gamble?

 

It is but bookmakers are often wrong! Let's hope we make them an exception!

 

Been in more finals? Better record at Wembley than us?

 

Bookmakers odds reflect the amount of money bet on a team. So more people have bet money on palace to win the Cup than us.

Its not a conspiracy against Watford, it's a highly profitable business model.

 

because we keep playing our youth team, are on our 6th manager this season and because they get their info from Chris Sutton

 

Exactly right.

Of course more people betting a on team to win doesn’t increase the likelihood of that event occurring. It’s just the bookmaker making sure that they’ll never lose and that only the mug punters lose.

I don’t understand why people think they can beat the bookie.

Fortunately the fun never starts for me on this money extraction con.

 

The reason you can’t beat a bookie is because as soon as they detect you are taking industry best price or pursuing a strategy that is not in their favour then they heavily restrict your account or close it.

 

The draw tonight is massive. 2 teams who should beat us, 3 teams we have a 50/50 chance against, and 2 teams that we should beat. Contrast our chances if we get MC away or Millwall at home.

 

Anyone other than City, Man Utd/Chelsea or Wolves please. Home or away doesn't matter. Thank you

 

Which is why it is better to walk in to a bookie's and pay cash.

 

Because they’ve seen us play? Genuinely though, as has been posted, it’s volume of money coming in once the initial price has been set and the bookies exposure.

Had a heated argument a while back with a friend who works reasonably high up for Ladbrokes who was adamant that it is not possible to win unless you are doing something dodgy. Could not convince him that it actually is possible to win and bookies do make mistakes but that gives you an insight as to their mindset. If you are winning you are cheating. Deifinite air of hypocrisy, not to mention simply not true. Myself and a friend are hardly high rollers (£5/week if that). We are enetering our 7th year with a balance of £330 (we’ve generally withdrawn funds each year) off an initial investment of £15 each. We certainly do not cheat or have any inside info.

 

That went well, then!

 

As far as the FA Cup goes that is quite a **** quarter final line up from a supporters point of view. Normally it’s a case of not wanting to draw one or two. This time it’s only one or two I’d want to get.

1. Wolverhampton - one of three remaining with quite the Neanderthal following. We all know what happened a few years back suffice to say they are simply a horrible bunch who will now have an air of arrogance. Quite a toxic mix. Clock ticking on when their classy support forces media to struggle to brush it under the carpet as they are such “a breath of fresh air” on the pitch. Town damage level if drawn at home: moderate to high if we win.

2. Millwall - really don’t need to say much do I? Strangely would be better to get away as apparently the segregation down there is pretty good as the police know this lot are still living the “glory years” of the 70s/80s. That and we seem to be getting results away from home in the Cup. TDL: high to war zone if we win.

3. Stripey Nigel’s - actually a decent support to be honest but Capoue has ensured they’ll have an irrational hatred of us for many years to come. That and our ability to lose to them in all one off must win games makes them one to avoid. TDL: very low to slight.

4. Manchester City - holy crap, it didn’t take long for them to reach United levels or arrogance which was properly on display at our place earlier in the season. Shame we didn’t knick an undeserved equaliser at the end to further mock their sudden silent demeanour when things got tough at the end. Actually hopeful they end up winning nothing, as unlikely as that is. TDL: low

5. Arrogant FC or Arrogant FC - Chelsea are probably the least likeable club in the Prem. Original throw money at it instigators which attracted the cream of the obnoxious crop lead ably by their “king” John Terry. No surprise their supporters have a similar attitude. United almost became humble in recent years when they stopped winning stuff. Of course a run of 11 games unbeaten turned them into world beaters until PSG reminded them how piss poor they still are. They’ll never lose that bloody Manc arrogant swagger though so they can jog on. TDL: moderate to high for the London mob, low to just above low for the dirty northerners.

6. Welsh Xenophobic bunch - we’re English, they’re Welsh. Expect some nice pleasantries exchanged about how we’re a bunch of assholes despite actually having no meaningful rivalry in the slightest. TDL: a very slight notch below Millwall levels.

8. Brighton - decent bunch. Never had a problem. Would be the preferred draw all round. TDL: very low.

 

Can't draw, its play to a result now.

 

Oddly enough one of my mates worked his way up (from Saturday job to corporate via store management) for the same company. He's adamant that gambling is a disease: "...watching blokes asking whether it's possible to gamble the 37p in coppers they've managed to scrape together...". He maintains that the only way can "beat" the bookie is though crime - though he maintains that this would entail wearing a stocking over your head and brandishing a sawn-off shotgun.

 

I generally win quite a lot of times. I rarely bet more than £1-2 on a game (though I stuck a tenner on Watford when I saw our line up).

My win % on in game betting is significantly higher than that of pre match betting and I think that's why I do ok. I watch games unfolding and then bet. Seems to work for me.

I also learned a while ago that more than a 2 team accumulater is not a good thing. No matter how "favourite" a team may be, there's always a Wigan beating Man city to screw you over.

Nothing, even in football, is a dead-cert.

 

Let's just face facts, it's going to be City away.

 

Suits me, if we're going to play City, the quarter final is the time to do it.

 

I kind of agree with that. it would be far worse to get to the final, play City and get thumped. They will also hopefully be involved in the Champions League still which might make the team slightly different

 

I hope we get Brighton or Palace at home. Don’t want Millwall or Swansea. Two championship clubs with nothing to play for in the league. Swansea not in a relegation battle and Millwall don’t care if they do get relegated.

Brighton and Palace both in a relegation battle currently and if results go against them over the next few weeks then both teams could find themselves in trouble. Plus they actually play each other the weekend before the quarter final date.

Both clubs would rather stay in the Prem than get to a semi final of an FA Cup and be relegated.

 

And we play City, so what are the chances of both league fixtures being drawn as the cup games as well.

 

I disagree about playing Man City before the final, as if we do I can’t see us advancing, no matter how well we play they can always step up a gear!

Let’s play them in the final at least it would give us a taste of a Wembley cup final so a visit in a couple of years time wouldn’t be a novelty for us like it was last time! Would be a case of third time lucky!

 

At the risk of adding to your anxiety, Brighton fans aren't as benign as you think - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47237474

 

We should resurrect this traditional song (on Friday too)

Taffy was a Welshman, Taffy was a thief;
Taffy came to my house and stole a leg of beef;
I went to Taffy's house and Taffy was in bed;
I upped with the jerry pot and hit him on the head.

Slightly different words...