Championship - 2023/24

What are the consequences of relegation to L1? I mean, obviously any talent we have won't want to stick around next season anyway, but financially how much of a hit would we take?

 

League one would be much more fun than the championship. Trust me.

 

New stadiums, we might actually win a few games for once!

 

Championship clubs get c70% of the tv rights pie if I remember rightly. Under the current deal, which is increasing next year, a Championship club gets £6.7m a year whereas a L1 club gets about £1.4m.

 

So not a monumental difference, but one we can ill afford at this moment in time

 

Given the likely size of our future income in the champ excluding para payments, a further £5.3m reduction would be a very significant % and £ reduction.

 

It’s huge.

 

Yeah, it’s why teams like Rotherham constantly y0-yo, as an overall percentage it’s bigger bridge to gap than the difference between the championship and the premier league, because there are no parachute payments.

 

Maybe will mean that Boro have something to play for in that last match ?

 

Well in Boro, given themselves a hope of catching the top 6, but most importantly keeping Brum right in the thick of the relegation battle. Seemed an absolutely dire game, Boro with an earlyish goal (a cracker by all accounts) and Brum utterly unable to break them down

 

They won't have a shot on goal vs us either, but will still win after we score an own-goal.

 

Brings back those wistful Prem memories... Watford 1 (Dawson og) v Hull 0! Happy days indeed.

 

The top of League 1 is nearly as tight as the bottom of the Championship - only two points will separate 2nd and 5th if the gap between them remains the same and Barnsley win their game in hand.

It’s likely whoever makes 6th will just be making up the numbers because the top 5 look a class above but Blackpool, who are the clear favourites for that spot, could be a dark horse - got some really good results against the top teams, 4-1 vs Bolton, 4-0 and 2-1 at Portsmouth and Peterborough respectively. Oxford have been in really poor form for a while after looking like automatic promotion contenders (though I’d like them to come up), and while Stevenage have an impressive defensive record for a team that’s just come up from League 2, especially for a club their size, goals have dried up lately. Will want to avoid the possible ignominy of being the second team in Hertfordshire, as if Luton being in the Prem for a second successive season wasn’t bad enough (looking less likely tonight though, LOL).

 

Not our main worry at the moment I suppose, but we'd much rather Cardiff got something at Swansea. Not going well so far...

 

Down to 15th, Clevs OUT!

 

Yes that useless Swansea side we only got a draw with are doing quite well at the moment. Also that average Coventry side that we lost to have just managed to scrape another away win in the FA Cup against a Premier League side.

if we want to stay up this year we really need to be taking maximum points at home from these sort of teams.

 

Think these results show we can definitely wangle a few points against most sides in this league, it's been a while since we've been played off the park, it's just how many with our difficult run in, and how many points the others will get with their easier schedules

 

The winnings runs are all over for the bottom half sides.

 

And wangle a result we did!

 

As much as the playoffs are meant to keep the league exciting, Norwich have turned into a winning machine and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the play off spots remain as they are now.

 

I agree, pretty much. This is my current prediction for the top 9, based on teams getting the same PPG for the run in, as they have in their last 8 games.



It's a pity we're playing 6 of these 9 in our last 8 matches.

 

Would presumably be some sort of record to have four teams on more than 90 points, should it happen? Very unlucky for the two who finish outside the top two to not go up automatically.

 

D'oh! As an engineer, faced with a(n implied) quantitative question, I've now got to find the answer.

Edit: And how gutting would it be for Leicester (if it panned out this way) to not even get an automatic place? In that case, I think they would be very disheartened opponents in the playoffs, so ripe for being beaten.

 

You’re not predicting Leicester to go up automatically?

PPG is all very well but teams often have a “blip” and then recover.

 

Sorry to ruin your evening, but I knew I could rely on you!

 

I am merely extrapolating from known facts about the recent past. It's one of the things engineers do. It doesn't mean we have 100% confidence in the prediction, but it's usually a more sound basis for prediction than gut feeling or predictions based on older data.

 

Fair enough. My ‘gut feeling’ says Leicester and Leeds.