Britt Assombalonga

Blimey are we still no closer to ending this!?

This reminds me of the people vs HB1 over Bassini (or various other spellings), and I've got to say HB1 was kind of proved right with that one and although I felt he should have calmed it down a touch I did think fair play.

The problem is that in this the people vs HB1 there is no 'correct' answer and here is where we should all (that includes you this time HB1) agree to disagree.

So, assuming we all agree to disagree, my personal opinion is we got a good deal and dealt at the right time. It's an opinion, and because there are too many variables in the 'what would have happened' world this cant be proved wrong.

I doubt this will end this but hey ho.

 

Receive up to £5m for a player who couldn't even make our first team. And still people complain. What a world we live in.

 

I know you like posting pictures.

 

Blimey. HB1 is getting absolutely bodied by Carlos, here.

 

It's not bad by any means.......but cutting Peterborough into the deal was not necessary....IMO. We should have had the lot.

 

Posh have not revealed the exact fee

Posh have not revealed the exact fee

Posh have not revealed the exact fee

"Science clearly isn't your strong point because readings are meant to be precise and accurate :tongue1:"

 

Because you love arithmetic so much, I've derived 2 formulae for you to play with:

W = U + 0.5(F-U)

P = F - U - 0.5(F-U)

Where:

F signifies final fee, U signifies undisclosed original fee, W is defined as Watford profit, and P is defined as Peterborough profit.

Now, we can put in any 2 hypothetical or made up values for U or F we like to see which fits our argument better!

That's how science works.

 

Watford Observer reported £1.2m

Watford Observer reported £1.2m

Watford Observer reported £1.2m

 

The fee was never officially disclosed so £1.2m is made up. Period.

 

Stop posting replies to me and I will.

 

Assombalonga has signed for Peterborough for an undisclosed fee but the Hornets have first option to re-sign the striker.

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/10582149.UPDATED__Assombalonga_joins_Peterborough/

 

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/SP...another___2_15m/?action=complain&cid=13039984

 

HB, would you have said it would have been an error of judgement on the part of the club if they had accepted an offer for Britt of somewhere between four and five million pounds in August 2013?

Do you think we should have turned it down?

Would turning it down have been an error of judgement?

Would accepting it have been an error of judgement?

 

Is it wrong that I'm a little bit aroused by this thread now?

 

This "reported £1.2m" is as made up as any other figure. How can the P'boro chairman possibly claim to have smashed a £1.1m transfer record with £1.2m? It's nonsense.

All we know is we don't know. That is the only fact.

 

It's all relative.....and this is the part people are just not getting.

We could have sold for £4m.....but if 12 months later someone pays £20m for the same player, then I think it's fair to say we made an error of judgement.

1 year is a very short period of time for a player to have gone up in price by that margin. We had him on our books and knew all about him, but strangely Peterborough could see a potential we couldn't. This is the point I'm making.

Saying what figure we should have accepted at the time is irrelevant because history has proved we misjudged his worth.

 

So you're putting all your faith in the words of the Peterborough chairman and taking it as gospel. To speculate, maybe he just wanted to show off a bit to his own fans. Maybe he just exaggerates. I've heard him in interviews and he's very media savvy. He knows how to say the right things at the right time to get people onside.

 

The media are speculating! Before an IPO in the City you hear 'whisper number' floatation prices for equities quoted anywhere between 10 and 100 depending on what paper/news outlet you read. The word is 'undisclosed' - you can't use them to form judgements on anything.

I'm not taking it as gospel it's just common sense and simple reasoning!

 

Maybe they are, but generally they are pretty close to the mark. What I've said previously is that you have to base your argument on something tangible, rather than made up without any foundation.

If £1.2m is the reported figure from a reputable source, then I think that's fair enough to go with it when you are forming an opinion.

 

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

https://twitter.com/DMAC102/status/467669348476518402

 

It appears that the King is wearing no clothes.

 

If Marlon's doing that in public, he's going to get nicked again.

 

Pack it in, this is tragic.

 

In which case, it is only the unfolding of the last twelve months that has informed us that we may have sold too soon.

There could have been no error of judgement then, as one cannot apply hindsight to a judgement. It is merely a circumstance of unforeseeable events, and no one could foresee an £8m bid from Forest for Britt in August 2013.

Sure. We MAYBE could have made ourselves more for Britt, but we really couldn't have judged that from the known facts twelve months ago. And lets face it, we never dreamed we would get £4-5m for him within twelve months of him going, and would have been delighted at the very thought of it.

 

I agree with everything hornetboy1 has said on this thread, with the exception of his stance on the Assombalonga transfer.

 

If that is true, why did Peterborough think so highly for him? Why did a League One club pay £1.2m for a player we thought was going nowhere?

They saw him as the next Dwight Gayle and they were bang on the money with that. We didn't think he was anywhere near that level, that's why we did the deal. Peterborough signed him to make big money, and they did just that.

You keep saying we couldn't possible foresee the future, but isn't that what clubs do all the time? Speculate and access a player's potential? Peterborough read the situation perfectly.....we just misjudged it.

 

the Pozzos should have known for sure that Forest were going to p!ss all over FFP even before knowing anything about their royal connections and they should have known that Britt was going to score 24 (now let's not get crazy here), 24 league goals with his new club at a higher level and they should, of course, have predicted that it would be Britt that Forest would choose. And then I guess they should have also known exactly how much the increased Sky money would drive up prices.

Anyone can gamble with other peoples money.
Burra have gambled with theirs and got lucky but Watford have always been quids in on this deal, why on earth would they risk it all on a long shot at very short (1/2) odds?

 

Maybe Posh saw him as the next Dwight Gayle, but maybe they took him because they saw a striker that had enough potential to score goals for them in League 1, and who may develop enough to either score goals for them in the championship or beyond, with an eventual sell on some time in the future. That is no more than the expectation we had of him, but the offer of £1.2m plus 50% of any sell on seemed a good one, particularly when we have a wealth of similar players both in development and in the first team, as well as having just obtained Uche, who at least on paper seems to have a greater potential even than Britt. I imagine Peterborough would have preferred to hold on to Britt, and I imagine they must have attempted to do so, given the size of Forest's eventual deal.

To me, it isn't Posh that have demonstrated the greatest confidence in Britt's future, but Forest, by buying him for a potential £8m+. Posh only paid a reasonable amount for him, with the least favorable sell on clause possible; if they had been canny, they would have paid a bit more and reduced the sell on clause - that would have been very good business, and shown a serious belief in his potential. But I really don't think they could have predicted Forest's interest only twelve months later, despite their experience with Gayle.

You are right that clubs speculate, but they do not, cannot, foresee the actual future; speculation is an attempt invest in the future based on historical knowledge and predictable circumstances that carry a risk (akin to checking the form on a horse you might make a punt on, and the predicted conditions they will be running in), but it can be scuppered by random events like injury, disaster or Forest having more money than they know what to do with it. Historical knowledge could not have foreseen an £8m bid, and probably would have rather indicated us getting around an extra two million for Britt in two or three years time, that is, if we didn't want to buy him. I know that is not what actually happened, but it is a reasonable prediction based on past knowledge.

Hindsight is a knowledge of what happened after a decision was made, and cannot by definition be applied to the judgement leading to that decision. Knowing afterwards that a very unpredictable event occurred cannot be considered proof of poor judgement. If Forest had put it about before the deal that they were interested in Britt and were considering spending eight million on him, then it would have been poor judgement that made us sell him to Peterborough, but that wasn't the case.

 

Britt will be back in league one playing for Coventry by the middle of next season.

He's not skilful and isn't particularly good at finishing, he just had bags of pace in a league where all the CBs are 6'6" 35-year-olds.

 

and if he keeps bulking up he'll lose even that

 

So who thinks we got a good deal in the end and who thinks we messed up? I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts.

 

That's an interesting question Hornet23 and a good way to end the pages of needless arguments on here. I'll start, I think.....no no, I KNOW we got a VERY good deal!

 

Good deal £3.5m for a player who had no chance getting in out team and looked shyte