Covid-19 Virus

Flu is the influenza virus, not a coronavirus. Pretty sure they’re different types of virus?

I agree Covid-19 will have to become an accepted part of life eventually though, as the short term chances of eradication are nil.

 

Yep, I think that's a very good point, and something I've noticed in shops. People with masks on, below their nose, bumping past people in the aisles and chatting for extended periods to Rita from down the road.

I think this may be the issue in Spain @UEA_Hornet where mask wearing is enforced, but social distancing not so much. Think both need to be possible for it to have much effect.

 

Apparently Boris is on the cusp of announcing a minimum fine of £1,000 if someone fails to self-isolate after a positive test. Up to £10,000 for the worst breaches.

Well that should sort out the huge over demand from the public to be tested at least. Clever move.

 

Masks don't eliminate the chances of infecting others. They reduce them.

If you open your economy back up and use masks, you're still going to see infections over time unless the use of the mask takes the R0 below 1, which don't believe is the case.

That doesn't mean the situation isn't significantly better than a scenario where masks aren't used at all.

Masks are currently compulsory in my state and I wear one basically the entire time I'm not in my house or driving alone in my car. It's not a big deal unless you're trying to e.g. run in them. Half the time I forget I'm wearing one now - I've tried to put food in my mouth on more than on occasion while my mouth has been covered.

 

I strongly disagree. If you are going to the harlequin these days you are sanitizing your hands every 10 minutes. The risk of infecting an escalator is low and the risk of catching it at way is even lower - how many people are holding onto escalator handles and then touching their face these days?

You can quite easily stop touching things. Masks are not 100% effective but there is no need for them to be. All we need to do as a society is reduce the R number to below 1.

This is not an "overriding problem with masks", it's a realistic limitation to their effectiveness. Absolutely not a negative to masks. We need ot use every pretective measure we can in order to have as normal as economy as possible while keepig the R number below 1.0

 

Still too early to come to any conclusions, but Sweden's alternative strategy is starting to demonstrate a lower case and death rate than other Scandinavian countries, whilst maintaining a less damaged economy with little disruption to children's education. Obviously, with higher early deaths, there is a long way to go before their strategy can be seen to have been justified, but it will be interesting to watch as most other countries are struggling with a second wave.

I also note that research done at Oxford shows that about a third of deaths coronavirus in England over the summer, were not due to the virus after all, but included deaths caused by, for example, road accidents. I think there will be many discrepancies or inconsistencies shown over the next year in how the various nations have been reporting their deaths in the tragedy.

 

The ‘thing’ my quoted post was referring to was the case for increasing their use at this point in time, rather than the need for them at all. Countries that use them much more than we do in the UK don’t seem to be seeing any obvious benefit.

That said, while there seems to be a case for the benefits of masks when worn in rigorously-controlled scientific study conditions where everyone behaves exactly as they should, doesn’t touch their mask, washes it etc, we know people aren’t drones. I suspect SAGE see them as more useful as a visible reminder for people about the virus than as a real measure to prevent the virus spreading.

 

Sweden's strategy had seen a notably higher death rate than its neighbours, so it may be helpful to provide the evidence and define what you mean by 'starting to demonstrate'. We are all endlessly starting again and our position now isn't so different to theirs at the beginning.

It is possible Sweden's strategy will play out better over a longer period, but there are lots of other factors, such as the general level of compliance in the population, the low level of virus when measures started and good health in the first place.

 

I think the poster you’re quoting was pretty clear in saying that we’re still a long way from Sweden being proved right, but surely ‘starting to demonstrate’ is pretty well defined by their current infection rate compared to us and the rest of Europe?



Their more relaxed approach clearly had a bigger negative impact earlier on, but means they are in a better position now. Does the chart above not at the very least ‘start to demonstrate’ something?

Of course if we get a vaccine in the next couple of months it’s likely (at least compared to their Scandinavian neighbours) they’ll have higher excess deaths, with the flip side being they’ll have an economy thats in a much better state.

If we don’t get a vaccine in the next few months then Covid isn’t going anywhere, so its really then a question of as a country, over what period you distribute your excess deaths, right at the start light Sweden? Or spread out over a year or so like the rest of us?

 

Does it? Or does it just show Sweden is behind other countries time wise? Rates seem to be going up and are now almost at the level of Italy.

I’d say Germany was a more interesting case on the basis of that graph.

 

Surely that big red second spike of theirs is what we’re all seeing now?

 

I don't know for sure, but was how Sweden handled all this the so called "Herd Immunity" solution?

If it is, I seem to remember that our government were being accused of wanting to go the "Herd Immunity" way when this sickness first hit us. However, they were heavily criticised by our wonderful media and opposition MP's for even considering such a thing, and ultimately persuaded not to pursue such a policy.

Could this have been a mistake seeing as Sweden seem to be doing OK now, not only health wise but just as importantly, economically as well?

I have often said that although C19 is a horrible disease, that the whole world have been using a sledge hammer to crack in nut in the way it has reacted to all of this. I think it has been driven by a form of Media led Mass Hysteria which has led to a world wide economic and medical meltdown, which in turn has cost many more lives than just the disease itself would have cost us.

I think Sweden had the right idea, by adopting the way they handled it, and I say that even though I am in the so called high risk group on more than one account, through age and underlying illness and possibly would have been more likely to have contracted the disease myself.

However, at the end of the day, although C19 can be very deadly, overall most people who contract it suffer a relatively mild illness or even no actual symptoms at all.

So I ask has the world overreacted to C19 or not?

 

My personal take on it is that any governments worst nightmare in terms of image, is people dying in hospital corridors. Our government were petrified of that happening, so along with most other governments took the most drastic approach possible to avoid that happening. I personally think we needn’t have taken such drastic measures, I think broadly speaking the state were in now would’ve been sufficient. To keep the virus completely in check and under control would mean absolutely trashing the economy and millions of people’s lives in a completely different way than the virus itself could. The reality is it’s here and it can kill people, but we have to accept that and to an extent get on with life as best we can.

 

Mmm, maybe. I read that as the first spike. As we had in March. But it is true the pattern looks different.

 

Says in the Mail On Sunday from official statistics, that out of the average 1,687 that die in Britain every day, in week ending 4th Sep.

11 from Covid-19
124 from flu and pneumonia

then on average over the year;

460 heart disease
450 cancer
240 dementia
84 lung disease
16 accidents/diy at home
5 rta's
16 c.diff and stomach bugs
15 suicide

 

Something interesting from the BMJ raising some interesting think about pre-existing immunity:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563
I wonder if/ what the c19 version of cowpox is?

 

And yet you only have to read what Carl Henegan - probably the only scientist to come out of this last few months with his credibility and predictive skills intact - says to realise the government doesn’t know its arse from its elbow. Start asking questions rather than sneering at the general public who unsurprisingly don’t like being treated like small children.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...it-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html

 

It seems that the UK is pretty good in terms of testing compared with most other nations in Europe, at least according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) - an EU agency, with the most tests done be far, and the 4th largest per head of population.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54181291

 

I'm quite impressed I managed to put something this coherent together drunk at 2am.

 

Valid point indeed about perspective. A sad one at the end there though that 15 poor souls kill themselves a day on average if I am reading that right

 

I agree it is valid to reflect on the relative impact but of course the daily deaths from Covid would have been much higher in March to May. This low figure reflects the impact of government intervention since then. If nothing had been done (as you might say is still the case with many of those causes of death), the figure would be much higher.

 

Sweden is a problematic example to take. Comparing it to large nations like France or Italy that got the virus early is misleading. Sweden got the virus late and had warning. Nevertheless it has had up to ten times the deaths of its Nordic neighbours.

All countries are now pretty much in the same boat and we are all more or less Sweden, trying to keep as much running as possible, while preventing a sizeable second wave. In Sweden these measures are more voluntary. It has a compliant, highly well and highly educated population.

It’s also a myth that Sweden just carried on. It took many measures and its economy has been highly affected, because like everyone else it trades in a global market and in some sectors like tourism it’s approach made it an outlier.

God knows I admire the Swedes greatly, but they have only done best here if herd immunity counts for something or they have avoided the issues with the disruption to other healthcare that we have blundered into here. This stops when it stops, i.e. when there is a vaccine. If that arrives in the next few months then Sweden will have done very poorly against its neighbours. Comparisons against the mess we have made of it are little comfort.

 

You have to look at comparable countries.
Cases:
Sweden 87,575
Denmark 20,571
Norway 12,393
Finland 8,750

Deaths
Sweden 5,860
Denmark 633
Norway 265
Finland 339

Also, Sweden has an infinitely better funded health and social security system than ourselves; being sick is not so punitive on income compared to the pittance that UK citizens get.

Sorry for big font, but people quoting 'Sweden' as an example really boil my piss.

Stockholm is currently showing 14.7% antigen rates in population so are miles off herd immunity, so that doesn't wash either.

 

Worth noting that Sweden is a large country with a low population. Population density matters.

A country with 1 citizen per 100,000 square miles has far more options than a country with 1 citizen per square mile.

 

And more house parties after 10....

 

Depends when/if we get a vaccine doesn’t it. They’re currently not seeing huge spikes in infections and aren't having to roll back on various relaxations in rapid haste are they?

Antigen rates are only one part of the story as you well know, 14% may well be enough combined with pre-existing/T-cell immunity.

Probably best to revisit this in a year and look at the stats then, especially with a very cold winter approaching.

 

Ah, so that explains it! We've done worse than other countries because we are more freedom loving!
https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1308399703005032448

 

Ah, the UK is finally following the US down the MAH FREEDUMB!!! rabbithole.