Where Will We Finish?

So just over halfway, where will we finish? (Cheeky)

A few were confident we were doomed earlier this season, has that changed for anyone?

Does anyone think they've seen enough for us to make the playoffs?

Still thinking we'll be involved in a relegation battle?

Anyone bold enough to think we'll go on an almighty run and reach the automatics?

I'm going with 10th, probably not enough for the playoffs without some signings in January.

Poll included.

 

Funny lot, the Finnish.

Play their cards close to their chests, and always wrap up warm in winter...

2-2

 

And an estimated 3.3m saunas for a population of 5.6 million.

 

We will finish at The Riverside Stadium.
You’re welcome.

 

I think we are too good to Helsinki down to league one.

 

10th.

Disagree? So Suomi.

 

10th is about right. It's sensible to Tampere our expectations a little.
Espoo, but better than relegation.

 

Lordi, Lordi, what a lot of puns.

Punstopable!

 

Hopefully we have the right Formula and we rally to the Finnish line

 

I’ve revised my position from earlier in the season. I think we could manage 16th if we make the correct signings in January.

 

Anything less than promotion is effectively relegation IMHO

 

I voted 10-12th.
Can I claim my enormous turnip now please?

 

Where's the option for 1st?

 

Next season we'll be in big trouble I reckon

 

Fewer.

 

What signings are they, and what’s your prediction if we don’t?

 

Players who could easily fit a playoff chasing squad. If it’s another case of waiting all window, then have a big fanfare for someone like Rajovic, then nothing would have changed.

 

So I guess you’ll make a prediction on 1st Feb? Seems sensible.

 

14th

Most players aren't actually that good. There's always been a strange mentality at Watford where they think they've cracked it and instead of realising that it was the hard graft that produced points, they lower standards and get a hiding.

We're also due a spell of injuries, starting with Lewis. That will likely pull Sema back, with Martins cutting in, reducing service to an already statuesque Rajovic.

What we've done is nullify the real risk of relegation that we faced at the beginning of the season and that should be applauded.

 

'Liked' for this part, very much.

 

We'll finish the season in Middlesborough.

Our season was finished somewhere else earlier.

 

Thought we had a mid-table squad at the start of the season, still think we have a midtable squad. 10th-14th

 

The way I see is that we've overachieved to have attained 36 points from 26 matches. We've won 9 out of 26, so wins are still a little hard to come by. I look back and I think if people are honest, the wins at Swansea, Hull and Blackburn all had their share of good fortune. Even the win at Preston could have been a heavy defeat, just as much as it was a heavy win. The Birmingham home match was as tight as they come in terms of winning it late. So, things went our way in those games, rather than it being us who controlled the match and deserved the win (in the majority of cases). Even the Norwich game was a great comeback, but was an triumph over adversity.

Only really the QPR and Rotherham wins were truly deserved and were never in doubt.

This is not to deny, we have won a lot of points through sheer force of spirit. We've done it this way, rather than being better than our opponent. This is all well and good, but I don't trust it. When you have a high quality squad, they can play within themselves and still get results. Now we've got a largely poor squad, we have to play above ourselves in order to get a result. If we fall below that level of commitment, we get destroyed, as Bristol gleefully discovered. Bristol's next two results after beating us was a 0-0 draw at home to struggling Birmingham, and a 0-1 defeat at home to struggling Millwall. They've not even scored a goal.....but looked a division above us when we played them.

I still think we've got a bad run in us. Maybe it's already started. Only 2 points from the last 3 games, with 3 consecutive away games still to come. This is why I can't see us finishing above 16th, however, I'm grateful the bottom three look a little cut adrift, even though Sheff Wed have had a clear upturn in their results and might be a threat to the other lower clubs, after winning 5 of their last 8 matches.

 

This actually happens within games where Koné goes on a brilliant driving run and casually passes to an opposition shirt, or Asprilla weaves some mazy magic and casually underplays a simple pass or Chak blitzes past numerous players and deftly plays the ball into touch, or Louza brilliantly putting his shirt on then entering the field of play.

 

Indeed those wins did have an element of good fortune about them, but football is usually a game of tight margins and on the other hand:

- we deserved to win against Blackburn at home (lost 1-0 - with the shots taken in the game Blackburn only had 8% chance of a win),
- we deserved at least a point at Boro at home (lost 3-2, 12% chance of a Boro win),
- should've beaten Cardiff away (drew 1-1 despite a 75% chance of a win),
- should've beaten Millwall at home (drew 2-2 - 76% chance of a Watford win)

So we've been lucky at times and we've been unlucky at times but in my opinion we haven't been overly lucky, nor particularly unlucky which is pretty much what you'd expect.

We're pretty much bang mid-table in every metric:

Goals conceded: 36 (12th best in the league - league average: 34)
Goals scored: 42 (7th best in the league - league average: 34)
xG: 32 (10th best in the league - league average 29.82)
xG against: 26.28 (8th best in the league - league average 29.82)
xG difference: 5.72 (10th best in the league - league average 0)

The only metrics we've been below par at are set-pieces (joint highest set-piece goals conceded in the league with 7 teams only scoring less than us), but we're starting to see the fruits of Gianni Vios work so hopefully we'll see those numbers balance out a bit over the rest of the season. The next few weeks are likely to be a bit hit and miss, we've got a fair few important players missing but QPR are without a win in 6 games, Bristol City will be tough as we found out on Boxing Day, there's shoots of improvements at Sheff Wed but they're still a bit inconsistent and Cardiff are pretty similar results wise to us, but overall I reckon we'll still be in and around the same position, perhaps drop a couple of places.

Our style of football always puts us in with a shout against the average + below average teams in the league, but the top 6 will usually have the upper hand as they do what we do - only better. I think the range we're in now is fair and can't see a massive shift (either up or down) in that come the end of the season either if everything progresses as expected (aka we don't suddenly sign some incredible players in January or on the other hand we lose loads of players to injury etc)

 

How many games in the Championship not involving the very top teams or relegation threatened teams end up in a comfortable win either way? Apart from Leeds and Leicester, we've been well beaten by Sunderland (who with Ipswich are in the mix to be the best of the rest) and Bristol City (a decent side, but probably not quite on the level of Sunderland), whereas we hammered Preston (yeah it wasn't a 5-1 game but still), plus QPR and Rotherham, the rest have been largely nip and tuck

 

Whilst I trust your metrics, I think our natural level for the squad we have is bottom 6, and possibly relegation if we didn't have a good head coach. VI is our best "player" as he's elevated the squad to a higher status than it would ordinarily be and that's down to a hard work ethic. But, as I said before, I do not trust it. It's hard for players to have to run through brick walls every week, in order to get a result. VI has done remarkably well at reenergising, but it's a constant thing and I see signs the players are always in need of reminding. The start against Norwich, the first half against Blackburn, the entire match against Bristol, the first half against Plymouth (defensively), are all recent examples where players have not shown the level required to complete, and when that happens, performances nosedive. Whereas we could play crap last season, but still have enough natural ability to get results. That's not the case this season.

This is why I believe we're on a knife-edge and could go into a decline at a drop of a hat.

 

https://www.r-bloggers.com/2016/03/most-soccer-matches-are-within-one-goal-of-1-0/

Average amount of goals in a match is 2.6, with 37% of matches either finishing 1-0 or 2-1 (the 2 most common scorelines)

 

Having looked through the squads of the bottom 6 there's very few players that I'd pick over the players we have currently.

 

Please stop interrupting useful debate with all these stupid facts.
We clearly should only have two wins to our name so far this season and frankly it's a miracle we aren't already down, and still have a fighting chance of staying up. FACT.

 

Disagree we are in a false position and your assessment of the squad.

We’ve got some good players , certainly not all of them and also a far cry from some of the teams we’ve had over the last decade, but a range of very good to passable championship standard.

In terms of the results, I’d say our performances deserved a little more than we got early on, so if we’ve snuck some ‘undeserved’ points along the way then that’s just the name of the game.

We do however appear to have a tougher 2nd half of the season so we’ll see how much that affects our final position. We also haven’t had a major injury crisis yet (though we’ve had plenty of those in recent seasons so maybe our luck / medical team has turned).

 

Only if we can stop BEHEMOTH clubs like Plymouth having 31 shots against us. Otherwise we might find that other clubs have more luck.

 

Most were pretty speculative though hence the xG data suggesting a 2-1 defeat would probably have been a fair result.

 

Only if we can stop BEHEMOTH clubs like Plymouth deserving a 2-1 win over us.