Looks like lots of speculation at the moment, but there are reports that Wagner fighters have opened fire on Russian troops in the rear areas around bakhmut. If this is true things could go to hell in a handcart. I don’t think it’s necessarily a good thing, last thing we need is a political vacuum in Russia with nukes sitting around left right and centre.
I mean what could possibly go wrong when you employ thousands of fascist war criminals and early released convicts to fight for you?
Would be interested in @Clive_ofthe_Kremlin take on this for another perspective. The whole thing is nuts, it feels very much like this has been in the works for a while.
It definitely seems a key moment and Russian can only be weakened by this whether Prigo prevails or is taken down. On paper I'd have thought the FSB and the regular army would prevail but no idea what the appetite would be for Russian troops to actually fight each other, I suspect low. Ukraine must be reviewing their options. Do they launch the counter offensive in full and commit whilst the Russians are distracted internally or do they wait and see what develops. I think they will wait and see how this plays out but I do wonder how coherent a defence the Russians can put up at the moment with Rostov occupied and focus elsewhere.
When the Ukrainian first started fighting back there was a lot of talk (on ARRSE) about what would happen to all of the PMCs operating there as, although they're very brutally lead, unlike the Russian regular/conscript forces their commanders don't steal from them. There was lots of mentions of a Medieval-style battle of the Warlords. Also, Putin has his 'own' (very well paid, equipped and trained) PMC the Rosgvardia who have been 'notorious' in Ukraine. Be interesting to see 'if' the Kremlin forces (that are mentioned in the media) are the Army or Rosgvardia.
Reports that the Wagners have taken control of Rostov on Don and have seized the Military Headquarters. Also reports of large scale defection from the military to the Wagners. A lot of coping going on from ‘anti-imperialists’ and Trumpers on social media.
Ukraine has to take advantage of this you feel. This could be a great opportunity to really drive the Russians back. Split them in the south and make a concerted drive towards the nuclear power plant at Zaporhizia whilst the Russians are focused elsewhere. It is imperative that they stop the Russians from blowing up the plant.
Putins speech this morning basically means that Wagner have crossed the line. There is no way back for Prigohzin and his cronies. It really depends if he men desert him or if they buy into it.
I agree it's a great opportunity. But it's tricky as in making a move for Zaporhizia could this inadvertently precipitate the Russians blowing it? Unfortunately there is probably a higher risk of the Russians blowing it now as they will be desperate and it would create a host of distractions for Ukraine which might buy the Russians time. Conversely, if the Ukrainians do nothing is there a possibility that Russian in fighting could just lead to a collapse of an army already apparently low on morale and motivation. To be or not to be, that is the question. I don't have a clue what the answer is but my guess is the Ukrainians will carry on monitoring the situation with some testing probes to see what opportunities present themselves.
Agreed. I thought it was interesting that Putin didn't seem to mention Prigohzin by name, he kept it generic.
Quite jarring to hear the phrase ‘stab in the back’ from Putin given its historical significance. BBC reporting UK intelligence that some Wagner troops appear to be on their way to Moscow. Utter madness.
This could be a "be careful what you wish for" moment. Obviously an end to Putin is desirable but Russians do seem to prefer living under a dictatorship and the idea of Prigozhin taking over fills me with dread. Also, if Putin is cornered, how far is he willing to go? Interesting times...
Possibly the use of 'Jazz' is against the Geneva convention: https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1672498287373348866
Wagner shooting down Russian Air Force aircraft, including an AN-26 troop transport near Voronezh this morning, which is relatively near an active civilian air route into Moscow. They’ll have to shut down civilian air traffic soon if there’s surface to air missiles flying around.
yes I noted that too. for all their anti fascist claims the Russian government is eerily similar to the nazi party of the 1930s.
I think you are spot on, but Prigozhin has claimed the Ukrainian war was launched under false pretences, so it’s not clear if a coup would mean the war continues.
