Excellent, Asprilla will be the transfer that makes Barcelona insolvent. Really putting Watford on the map!
Such a shame we didn't make this signing for whatever reason last time we were in the PL - just noticed that he's been one of the star players for the Girona side currently sitting in 2nd in La Liga.
I posted this in the 'what we need thread', but as this is the usual place for it I'll add it here as well. To get the ball rolling for our next transfer window as a Championship club, here's a list of players I've noticed in recent months from either matches, highlights, news articles, or stats who could be suitable for what we need (I've not covered all roles and positions, just the most important ones for now). It'll be far from exhaustive given the limited tools I have to search for players and their stats (eg no Wyscout), but it's something. Some of the names will be pretty obvious. Some of them slightly less so. The feasibility of a number of them will depend on whether their respective teams get relegated or promoted. LBs (a likely essential position): - Rubens - 22 - Brazilian - Atletico Mineiro - a player I really think we should try to sign, especially if we might occasionally be using WBs as well as he's played there a fair bit for Atletico and enjoys getting forward. He's very quick and very tenacious and determined. He's also at an age and stage where he can both make an immediate impact and still improve. Main problem will be that he has 3 years left on his deal so they might ask for too high a fee for us. - Harrison Burrows - 22 - English - Peterborough - an obvious candidate considering we'll have likely watched Peterborough a lot for Kyprianou and he only has 1 year left on his deal. Still won't be cheap mind. His attacking play seems very good, but I have to say though that he's seemed unconvincing defensively whenever I've seen him with some deficits in alertness and positioning. He and Andrews as the two FBs could get caught out a fair bit. - Gaston Benedetti - 23 - Argentinian - Estudiantes - he might need to toughen up a bit, but a skilled player on the ball and his defensive stats still seem good. Only 6 months left on his contract it seems so could be inexpensive. - Francisco Moura - 24 - Portuguese - Famalicao - not so sure about him and can't find too many clips, but he seems to have an excellent cross on him and seems strong physically. His tackling stats are a bit low despite his other defensive numbers being good. not sure why? Another who is probably better going forwards than defending. RBs (would be good to have some proper competition for Andrews). Not delved in to this as much but there are a couple of obvious players who might be available: - Ki-Jana Hoever - 22 - Dutch - Stoke (on loan from Wolves) - Has impressed me whenever I've seen him. Is only currently on loan from Wolves and they'll surely be looking to offload him again. He might expect to start every week though and wouldn't be cheap if Wolves won't loan him again. - Ethan Laird - 22 - English - Birmingham - We should have signed him last summer really. Brum's best player and would surely have to be sold if they got relegated. DMs (a more defensive minded midfielder with Livermore seeming less reliable seems essential. Struggling to find too many good options here tbh, but a few names): - Hector Kyprianou - 22 - English - Peterborough - another very obvious one given we tried to sign him in January. Will only have 1 year left on his deal this summer. Might need a bit of time to adapt but seems promising. - Alonso Coello - 24 - Spanish - Toronto FC - very much a cheap punt squad filler option with just 1 year left on contract. He's only been a pro at MLS level for 1 season so may be too raw and the jump may be too much for him, but he does seem to have something about him. Strong and composed on the ball and can pick a pass. Like a budget version of his namesake Xabi Alonso - Jordan Holsgrove - 24 - Scottish - Estoril - intriguing profile. English qualifying (which is useful) having been as yet uncapped for the Scotland senior team, but was a youth international while in Reading's academy. Has had time at La Liga Celta Vigo, and is now owned by Olympiacos but they loaned him to Estoril and would I guess send him out or sell him this summer. Hard to tell if he's good enough but his stats seem good. Maybe his main drawback could be lacking in physicality for the role. - Mory Gbane - 23 - Ivory Coast - Gil Vicente (on loan from Kimiki) - on loan from a Russian club where his contract seems to be expiring in the summer. Very much a traditional strong deep-lying ball-winner with strong defensive stats, but maybe not good enough on the ball. - James McConnell - 19 - English - Liverpool - he was impressive in their win vs Norwich in the 5th round of the FA Cup. You'd think Pool would loan him out next season. Could be too soon for him to be starting week in week out at this level, but could be a good option to have, especially as he develops. Wingers and Attacking Midfielders (the number of these we need and their combination will depend on our formation and outgoings, but some will be essential): - Cesar Huerta - 23 - Mexican - Pumas UNAM - really like the look of this guy. With his tricky and determined play, frizzy hair, and left foot he seems very much a budget Mo Salah. Is now a member of the Mexico national team squad and scored on his debut off the bench to equalise vs Australia. Predominantly a left-footed RW, but he's good with both feet and can play both flanks well. - Koki Saito - 22 - Japanese - Sparta Rotterdam (on loan from Lommel) - Another player I really like the look of. Currently on loan at Sparta from Lommel in the Belgian 2nd tier, plus only 1 year left on his deal. Seems a very fast and tricky attacking player, with creative passing and very strong finishing. Not dissimilar to a right-footed Asprilla. Mostly a right-footed LW, but I suspect would also play well as a no.10. - Liam Millar - 24 - Canadian - Preston (on loan from Basel) - he's looked absolute class for Preston this season, no doubt they'll want to make it a permanent deal but nothing seems to have progressed yet on that front and don't know of their means, so could be an opening there. He has a very similar profile to Sema in that he's strong as a left-footed LW and also strong as a LWB. As with Sema can also do alright as a RW (and even maybe as an emergency LB?). Maybe the lure of linking up with his Canada team-mate Kone could get him here? Chris Willock - 26 - English - QPR (free in summer - He was on fire last season. But this season there have been question marks about his fitness levels and application. Still, he clearly has the talent to be a very good player at this level and can play LW, RW and ACM and is available on a free. Will need a manager capable of whipping him in to shape. - Harvey Vale - 20 - English - Bristol Rovers (on loan from Chelsea) - another player who similar to Sema and Millar is left footed and can seemingly operate in most positions down that flank as well as at RW. Has filled in as emergency LB a number of times for Rovers this season though it's not his best position. Good quality on the ball but maybe lacking a bit of pace. Will have no shortage of Championship suitors though especially with only 1 year left on his Chelsea contract and his versatility. - Femi Azeez - 22 - English - Reading (free in summer) - there aren't many promising young English left-footed RWs about, especially ones available on a free. He probably won't be good enough to replace Asprilla as a starter mind, but is a good finisher and could be a useful option. Not sure if he'd be better than the similar Forde for that role; would be interested in a reids statsbomb comparison Azeez vs Forde vs Poku vs Asprilla as RWs. - Kwame Poku - 22 - English - Peterborough - similar to Azeez but with 1 year left on his contract. Not the most attractive of Peterborough's team of possible starlets, but as per above I'd be interested in his statsbomb comparison vs similar players. - Benicio Baker-Boaitey - 20 - English - Brighton - another left-footed wide player. Unsurprisingly haven't seen much of him play but he's a quick and tricky winger who is fairly highly regarded having been an England U16 youth international at West Ham before joining Porto. Has played 14 minutes for Brighton in the PL this season. With his opportunities limited and only 1 year left on his deal he'll surely go elsewhere and so could be a shrewd pick-up for someone. Also, great name! Strikers (Would be good to have more competition for Bayovic. Another one I've not been able to look a huge amount in to yet, but a few names): Andreas Hountondji - 21 - French/Benin - Rodez (on loan from Caen) - Really like the look of this guy. For some reason he's on loan at one mid-table Ligue 2 club from another. He's a bit of a unit and is tearing up the league with 12 goals in 1752 minutes. He has it all for a CF really - strong, quick, powerful, good dribbler, good finisher, good in the air and generally seems pretty remarkable for his age. Again one with only 1 year left on his contract. He surely can't spend another season in Ligue 2. - Ike Ugbo - 25 - English - Sheff Weds (on loan from Troyes) - Someone we've been linked with many times before. Has ignited Sheff Weds' season and been their best player. Lots of Champ clubs will be looking at him in the summer. - Delano Burgzorg - 25 - Dutch - Huddersfield (on loan from Mainz) - 7 goals in 1897 minutes for a poor Huddersfield side and I thought looked their best player against us recently. Not spectacular. Maybe not even an upgrade on Bayo. But a solid all-rounder of a striker who can also fill in at LW if needed. Another one with only 1 year left on his contract; Huddersfield have a £1mil option to buy in the summer but if they go down he'd surely go elsewhere. Sinclair Armstrong - 20 - Irish - QPR - Another with only 1 year left on his contract. Seems far from a prolific goalscorer at the moment, but is still young. Caused Hoedt all sorts of problems in our game against them with his excellent strength and hold-up play. I suspect he could also probably do a job on the wing, even though he's not played there much for QPR. With 1 year left on his deal could be a useful squad option and prospect we can develop and sell on for more money later. QPR getting relegated would reduce the fee but seems unlikely now sadly.
Following on from the above post, here are some highlights/clips of some of the more obscure players I've mentioned in it who I like the look of the most so far: Rubens - LB/LWB: Cesar Huerta: RW/LW: Koki Saito - LW/AM: Andreas Hountondji - Striker:
Having noticed that Broadhead has the 7th highest open play goals per minute in the Championship this season (and 8th highest open play goals per minute in total), I recalled that I suggested we sign him 2 summers ago in 2022. Instead he just went on loan to Wigan in the Championship where he scored a solid 5 goals in 1069 minutes, before Everton recalled him and sent him to League One Ipswich (where he's continued to be excellent).
As another young English left-footed right winger who'd probably be available in the summer, I'm curious how his statsbomb from his previous season at Charlton in League One looks compared to someone like Kwame Poku; @reids could you please do the honours?
Thanks. They're not too far off each other. Aside from Poku pressing a bit more, the main difference seems to be Poku is stronger at assisting than scoring and Rak-Sakyi stronger at scoring than assisting. Poku somehow has a negative Shot OBV, and Rak-Sakyi somehow has a negative Pass OBV. I presume that's from something like Poku taking lots of shots from unlikely positions, and Rak-Sakyi being loose in his passing?
I reckon Pokus shot OBV is due to taking more shots from range and a lot of those blocked shots out wide would indicate that shooting wasn't the preferable option, whereas Rak-Sakyis shots are more central + closer to goal. As for the pass OBV, Rak-Sakyi actually has a higher pass accuracy (80% vs 75% for Poku) but it'll be more the decision making (picking "wrong" passes) that brings the pass OBV down.
Yes Poku appears to try lots of shots from outside the box which he never scores from. It's surprising no one has suggested he cut down on them. Rak-Sakyi does find himself more often receiving the ball centrally around the 6 yard box, I wonder if that was just more of a formational thing with him being allowed to play a more advanced role, or he has more of a knack for getting in those scoring positions. On the whole Charlton didn't score quite as many goals as this Peterborough side, but he was their top scorer.
Another LB/LWB I like the look of: Daam Foulon - 25 - Belgian - Mechelen - Seems strong defensively and should have little trouble with the pace or rough and tumble of the Championship. Also has a rather good eye for goal for a full-back/wing-back. Yet another player with only 1 year left on his deal. Check out the goal he scores at 1:50 of the vid below from a couple of weeks ago (he's number 23) ; one of three goals he's scored so far this calendar year. Can't imagine Lewis doing that in a million years. Mechelen never really sell players for big money either.
Haven’t been on this thread in a long old while and can’t be bothered to trawl through it… But I wonder how much Aberdeen would want for Bojan Miovski? Having a good season up there and is highly rated it seems. Seems like a good profile.
Have something in the back of my mind saying they would’ve asked for silly money in January. Sure I read £15-20m was the asking price. Could be getting mixed up with someone else though.
Haven’t checked - but their owner should take a trip to Shutter Island if he thinks they would be getting £15m-£20m for a North Macedonian striker who is playing for a mid-table SPL team who’s record is around a goal every other game. He scores goals and looks decent so £5m would be about passable. But honestly reckon £3m is market rate.
I’ve quickly googled and Mark Benstead at Sky says £5m+ plus is the asking price, so you’re bang on the money. I was probably thinking of someone else.
Ordinarily I'd think it was pie in the sky, but are there any indications we have £3m-£5m to spend on any one player this summer?
I’ve seen Rangers fans claiming he has a £4m buy-out clause, no idea if true. Anyway, not suggesting we have that to spend. I’d like to think we could stretch to £3m to fill a glaring squad deficiency but who knows. I do know Gino has sacked pretty much the whole recruitment team (not scouts) so I really have no idea what the plan is - or if there even is one.
We have little in saleable assets left (Asprilla and Louza are about it really, Kone at a push), but on the flip side, the wage bill once Dennis and Lewis go must be as low as it's been for a long time, hopefully it means we'll have a little bit to spend, but I wouldn't bank on it
Honestly, from what I’ve been told, the noises are we will spend. How that looks or even how it’s possible, I don’t know. But that’s the message. Asprilla will go. Kone will likely stay. No idea on Louza but you’d imagine that Cleverley could possibly get some good out of him, and I doubt he has a long list of suitors willing to line our pockets for him. Suspect he will go if he lets it be known that he has no interest in staying though. Dennis deal is difficult to do I’ve been told - but it IS being worked on. And the wages being mentioned aren’t wild, they would not blow other squad members pay out of the water. Would be affordable for a club like us. But I think people can assume he will be staying just as much as he will be going.
Now that we're safe, I thought I'd have a look at some of the players from teams who definitely aren't safe to see which deals we might be able to do (resisting the urge to choose Szmodics and Morgan Whittaker lol) Rotherham: Johansson Huddersfield: Nicholls, Helik, Rudoni Brum: Stansfield (on loan from Fulham), Laird, Bacuna (no, not that one!), Bielik Wednesday: Ugbo (on loan from Troyes), Musaba, Gassama Plymouth: Hazard, Mumba Blackburn: Brittain, Pickering Moving more into the realms of the hypothetical now: QPR: Chair, Willock Stoke: Hoever, Wilmot
Bacuna from Birmingham looked a great player the twice I’ve seen him against us this season, can’t see us wanting Wilmot!
I don't have the most info on Miovski, but from the limited stats I have to hand and from watching highlights I don't think he looks enough of an upgrade for a £multi-million fee. If you take away penalties then his goalscoring record is notably lesser than Rajovic's, while the stats I can see relating to his all-round play eg passing and headers won only seem marginally better than Rajovic. And this is in a league which on balance is worse than the Championship. Plus from watching some highlights he looks pretty slow. I think people are still willing to give Rajovic a bit of the benefit of the doubt when he only cost £1mil, but they'd be less pleased at spending over 3x that for a player who does not seem a clear upgrade. They're both basically the exact same age as well. For that kind of money my initial impression would be I'd rather just work with Rajovic a bit more in the hope he improves, while looking elsewhere for another striker to spend money on. I'm curious if @reids has a statsbomb of Miovski vs Rajovic still, as I have little data to view on him.
Ironically. one of those two was touted to us by his agent last summer. The fee quoted was less than what many on here regularly say was the Bayo fee. His club was happy to let him go and cash in. Our response was "He's not better than what we have got".
What does possession adjusted pressures actually mean, is it how often he presses the opposition, adjusted for how much of the ball we have? The eyes don't suggest he does that very well, certainly not compared to Bayo and Dennis
Yeah correct, defensive stats can be heavily skewed by possession, for instance if you look at CMs in the PL, Rodri ranks 40th out of 83 for tackles + interceptions combined. Does this mean Rodri is an average ball-winner? Nope, it's just cos City have so much of the ball that Rodri is naturally making less tackles/interceptions. So it's possible to work out the average amount of possession each team has and then adjust those defensive numbers compared to how much of the ball the team has. Doing that moves Rodri up to 5th which I'd say more accurately represents what happens on the pitch. Comparing Rajovics stats to Dennis/Bayo shows that all 3 are very similar in their pressing numbers Pressures: The number of times a player pressures an opposition player. PAdj Pressures: Possession adjusted pressures. Pressure regains: Times a player’s team won the ball back within 5 seconds of the player pressuring an opponent. Counterpressures: Counterpressures are pressures exerted within 5 seconds of a turnover. Counterpress Regains: Times a player’s team won the ball back within 5 seconds of the player counterpressuring an opponent. There's a few different stats we can look at to measure pressing (all the above are per 90). Bayo comes out top in most of the metrics, although Dennis is better at pressing after we've just lost the ball (counterpressing)
