The Premier League - 2021-2022

On the plus side, we have Tufan to come into the team, who may not be definitively better than the 3 we had on Sunday, but is at least a more creative force which is something that we lacked, and the defensive display was pleasing, considering there were question marks over WTE coming into this season. On the negative side, injuries and AFCON could mean we are very precarious in those areas for a number of games. Then, there is the small matter of our bestest player being missing for a few games too, although strangely enough I think we might be OK without Sarr, especially if Dennis isn't selected for Nigeria

 

Interesting reveal from Troy that he was hoping to play against Palace and his omission made him realise he wasnt gonna get enough minutes this season. It's hard to believe Xisco did that without clearing it with Scot and Gino. I'd imagine it was discussed and agreed. The 3 of them seem to have handled it really well albeit at least a season too late.

 

Ok so here is my opinion on this season in regards to our chances of staying up.

Starting with the clubs around us, I’ve put together what I consider their best 11 when everyone is fit.

Norwich

Krul
Aarons Kabak Gibson Williams
Normann Gilmour
Rashica Cantwell Tzolis
Pukki

Brentford

Raya
Pinnock Ajer Jansson
Canos Dasilva Oneyka Janelt Henry
Mbeumo Toney

Burnley

Pope
Roberts Tarkowski Mee Cornet
Gudmundsson Westwood Brownhill McNeil
Wood Barnes

Newcastle

Woodman
Lascelles Schar Fernandez
Murphy Hayden Willock Almiron Lewis
ASM Wilson

Southampton

McCarthy
Livramento Salisu Bednarek Perraud
Walcott Romeu JWP Djenepo
Adams Armstrong

Palace

Guaita
Ward Anderson Guehi Mitchell
Gallagher Riedewald Eze
Olise Edouard Zaha

Villa

Martinez
Cash Konsa Mings Targett
Buendia McGinn Luiz Bailey
Watkins Ings

Anyway, I think these are the teams that will all be in and around the relegation zone.

I would include Brighton but I honestly have no clue how Potter will line them up. They’ve been playing 3 at the back but now they have signed Cucurella I’m assuming they will revert to a back 4, but I can’t be sure. I don’t think Brighton will get relegated, i do think they will finish bottom half of the table.

Villa I have playing a 442 simply because that’s what there fans are crying out for. I don’t think Villa will get relegated, but I certainly don’t see them finishing in the top 10.

Also worth noting that Everton have one LB in Digne. If he gets a long term injury, they will be screwed at the back.
Leeds’ squad depth is poor. Meslier or Bamford get a long term injury they are in trouble.
Wolves, similar to Leeds, if they lose Sa, Ruddy is their back up. Their CM is very light. Moutinho, Neves and Dendoncker their only CM’s registered.

Bottom line, in my opinion 5 of those teams I consider us having a better team than. The rest are very similar to us. If we can avoid long term injuries, and get some luck along the way, we could have a very good season.

Truly believe it’s going to be an exciting season. One in which we will comfortably survive. Providing Xisco gets it right.

Gino has given Xisco more than enough to help us stay up, despite our short comings at CB. Our squad depth is very good outside of that.

 

I like your thoughtful optimism.

I'm still not sure how decent a chance of staying up we have.

So many new players to bed in, and players like Pedro and WTE who are unproven at this level.

But the Sissoko signing will certainly help us.

Next few games are crucial to get some points on the board and build some confidence.

COYH

 

Agreed. In September we have two home games against mid-table sides and an away game to Norwich. We really need a minimum of 4 points from those, anything more would be great.

 

Solid home form is the thing that would keep us up.

Although with the pace of Sarr and now Dennis you'd think we could cause teams a problem away from home on the break. We'll see!

 

Yep, 4,5 or 6 points would do nicely.

 

One mad run of 3 wins in a row pretty much means survival. It's happening.

 

In previous years, 40 points has always been more than enough.


17/18: 34 to stay up. 40 points would get you 15th.
18/19: 35 to stay up. 40 points would get you 16th.
19/20: 35 to stay up. 40 points would get you 16th.
20/21: 29 to stay up. 40 points would get you 16th.

This year, I think that the league is quite a bit stronger though, especially compared to 20/21. Maybe 36/37 to stay up, and 40 to get 17th?

 

Not sure you've got that last bit quite right. If it needs 40pts to get to 17th then that's the mark for survival surely?

 

Nothing scientific but I reckon it will be tighter down the bottom this year, I think teams like Newcastle, Burnley, Southampton Palace etc are all much of a muchness. Norwich look like being absolute gash again (so far) but beyond that there are a number of teams who will easily take points off each other. It could even come down to the luck of the draw with fixtures, catch one of those teams after they’ve won two or three on the bounce and they might be complacent, that sort of thing. Teams like Wolves and Leeds don’t seem all that, so again all those teams, us included, will be able to take points off them with the wind in the right direction.

Last season the bottom three were miles and miles off the pace, but I don’t see that being the case this season.

 

What do you mean by stronger and why does that change the points needed to avoid relegation?

 

Still early days, but it is mainly based on the quality of the lower half teams and the points that they pick up. Last year, the 3 who went down were particularly rubbish, and there was a significant gap between bottom 3 and midtable, compared to previous years. If the teams going down are poorer, then the league is weaker (as it is easier to survive) and so the number of points needed to avoid relegation decreases.
In recent years, at least two of the 3 coming up have been ****, so the 40 point marker has been inaccurate. Still early days, but I don't think that 2 of the relegation spots can be predicted with a reasonable amount of confidence yet. We do always have the possibility of second-season syndrome or a random team suddenly being relegated (ahem, Arsenal), but the quality seems generally higher.

That is however, a load of fluff made from a prejudiced preconception though, so please feel free to completely ignore it.

My mistake. I meant 16th, as that seems to be the trend.

 

I get your point. Is it stronger or more even can be debated.
Let's just hope there are three teams that show themselves a bad enough to take the bottom 3 places.

 

Doesnt a stronger more competitive league mean lower survival total? For example if two teams finished on 10 points then the points needed for 17th is higher than normal as most teams get 12 points battering the duds.

 

When I look at Newcastle, Southampton and Burnley I personally think they’re all weaker relatively speaking compared to last season, considering their overall incomings and outgoings. Palace are a bit of an unknown quantity as they’ve had such a high turnover of players. So I think the answer is a combination, but actually not stronger, instead weaker, and more even down the bottom, but of course we shall see.

 

Yeah but what about if the smaller teams keep beating the bigger teams?

 

I did have Southampton to go down at the start of the season, they haven't had a fantastic start, but they played well against United and Newcastle for a point in each game. Newcastle are looking atrocious, lucky to be on one really, Burnley only have one point when their first two home games were very winnable, but they remain an awkward team to play against, but have added a bit more flair. I can definitely see Palace and Vieira struggling for a while, but I don't see them going down, there is plenty of ability in that squad

 

30% of this division is absolute gash and could easily be relegated. Unfortunately we're in that 30%

 

It seems only 2 members of the first team squad wrote goodbye messages to Troy on social media. The official site also quotes Troost and a couple of newbies saying 'legend', although there's nothing on Troost's Twitter. Considering Troy was club captain, at the club for 11 years and the so called 'Mr Watford' the silence does seem quite deafening. Even Luther recently tweeted good luck messages to Pollock, Hughes, Nate and Quina but no mention of Troy. I guess most of the players couldnt wait to get him out the door.
https://www.watfordfc.com/news/deeney-reaction-to-captains-departure

 

Or most of them said goodbye in person or over the phone? Not everyone puts their whole life on social media.

 

But a lot of footballers do. it's a major event for the club captain to leave after 11 years. personally I was surprised by the lack of well wishers. it says a lot.

 

OK, I’ve been meaning to ask - why does “gash” mean useless? Where does it come from? I’ve never seen it anywhere else but this forum (sheltered upbringing, I expect).

 

That’s really interesting. Thank you!!

 

That is interesting, but I definitely won't be using it at the next ambassadors' party I attend because it has another derivation, which I submit is the more common: It refers to that singular, visible part of a woman's anatomy which (biological) men do not own. And not, I would suggest, in a complimentary way.
Not only does The Urban Dictionary confirm this, I recall reading it in 'Portnoy's Complaint' by Philip Roth, decades ago.

 

Ah. That’s what I originally feared. Although I couldn’t understand why it would be used to refer to something which was of no benefit to anyone.

 

Might be a little bit unfair on Norwich considering who they've played so far. There problem is because of the difficult start they could be adrift before the season really gets going. We really need 6 points from the next three games in my opinion. Important we don't lose at Norwich

 

Yes the Norwich game is massive as we will be their first "winnable" game, though it's always possible they will beat relegation rivals arsenal. It's important their self-belief continues to be sucked away.

 

Spot on, this is my exact reason for using it.

 

Agree, it is difficult to judge them so far, but equally there is no evidence yet they won’t be rubbish again. My worry is surely they have to beat us eventually, they’ve been a consistent source of 3 points for us for a long while now.

 

Yes. More than a little, I would say. There must be a whole branch of psychology involving the use of swearwords. As I understand it, a couple of hundred years ago and more, religious allusions were particularly verboten. And then there are the phrases which are no longer understood in their original sense, such as 'Berk' and 'Cor blimey'. I think maybe g*sh fits in there; unlike most swearwords, I find this one actually revolting and won't use it.