Summer Werewolf II - Day 2

Same gut reaction for me as well, 2nd message today from seer, although my gut hasn't proven to be the best decider in last game it's all I have to go on. Either way we should be 2 evils down by tomorrow night at latest (which gives me less reviews to write ) so I'm doubly happy.

 

no one knows if they are the tinker. The only person that would have a clue is the traitor

 

Think about it logically, rather than using gut instinct:

1. If you think Message 2 today is from the Seer, then consider this:
2. The content of that message states that Day 1, Message 1 was the Seer, and distances the author from Day 1, Message 2.
3. So, if you believe today's Message 2, you must think that Day 1, Message 1 is the Seer and Day 1, Message 2 is the Wolf.

So far, so good. BUT...

4. Look at the style of Message 2 yesterday, that you now think is the Wolf. It is split into separate paragraphs and good and evil are both all lower case. This is the same as the Message 2 today. Why, oh why, would the Seer change their style to match the Wolf's?

Day One: Anonymous Message 1

'Good morning everybody, it is your seer speaking. I viewed Ashdonwfc this morning, he is GOOD'

Day One: Anonymous Message 2:

Hello everyone!

I wanted to see whether anyone stood out more than another before viewing today. It is such pot luck. Went for Diamond and they are good.

I am going to try and mix up the style of writing to avoid the wolf copying me in the next few days.

Day 2: Anon Msg 1:

Ok everybody, I know the first day is difficult. People need to remember that shouting accusations about doesn't help anybody at this stage. Today I decided to view DAFT ROW he is EVIL. I also viewed Ashdon yesterday, he is Good.

Day 2, Anon Msg 2:

Morning villagers

A mixed night last night. But fortune today as I viewed Steve Leo Beleck and he is evil!

Ashdon was viewed as good by me yesterday. Shame that the wolf jumped at that knowledge.

I do not know if Diamond is good or bad as I did not view them.

 

Morning,

Just catching up,

"I do not know if Diamond is good or bad as I did not view them."

What does this mean? Why view SLB when you could view Diamond and clear that up? Or if you didn't want to view Diamond why mention it?

 

Right, I'm off to a funeral (real one) but I should be back before voting closes.

 

You don't KNOW you're not the tinker UNLESS you know you're Team EVIL (Wolf or Tinker) or a VERY GOOD character... are you saying something?

I acknowledge your first point, however it is conjecture.

If you are given the benefit of the doubt tonight you get another kill, either way you're dead by tomorrow. Unlucky Team EVIL.

 

I think it's highly unlikely that DR would be tinker two games on the trot but not impossible, the first message looked very wolf-like and I would suggest that SLB is indeed evil.

Yes but that would imply that he has a very good role, which wouldn't be great to broadcast because even if he survives the lynching, there is no way the guardian would protect him.

 

Liked for this comment, I'm glad someone picked up on it.

I'm the Harlot. Good luck catching me Team Evil, I'll be out and about again tonight, if my fellow villagers don't lynch me of course!

 

I follow the thought process, but it's based on the speculation that just because someone writes in paragraphs that they will always write in paragraphs or that 2 different t people couldn't have by chance a similar style when both are clearly mixing it up. The two styles could easily be the same person or different person.

I'm starting to think that SLB is not all he seems. Too vocal for a wolf, so probably traitor.

But I guess we'll find out tonight.

 

So it's a straight choice between SLB and DR tonight? One of them is evil or the tinker?

 

SLB s comments and posts seem inconsistent to each other and smell of a last ditch attempt by an evil to 1-confuse everybody and 2- save their skin for another night .

 

I'm baffled.

 

Ok, BRLR is either Team Evil or their useful idiot. Since the second message came, I've been completely consistent - both in stating that I'm not the Tinker (I know this because I'm the Harlot), and by pointing out the similarities in style between the confirmed Wolf message yesterday and the second message today. I'm simply asking everyone to think about how likely it is that the Seer would adopt the same style as the Wolf used yesterday.

Confirmed Wolf Message yesterday:

Hello everyone!

I wanted to see whether anyone stood out more than another before viewing today. It is such pot luck. Went for Diamond and they are good.

I am going to try and mix up the style of writing to avoid the wolf copying me in the next few days.

Message 2 today:

Morning villagers

A mixed night last night. But fortune today as I viewed Steve Leo Beleck and he is evil!

Ashdon was viewed as good by me yesterday. Shame that the wolf jumped at that knowledge.

I do not know if Diamond is good or bad as I did not view them.

Compare that to:

Confirmed Seer yesterday:

Good morning everybody, it is your seer speaking. I viewed Ashdonwfc this morning, he is GOOD

Message 1 today:

Ok everybody, I know the first day is difficult. People need to remember that shouting accusations about doesn't help anybody at this stage. Today I decided to view DAFT ROW he is EVIL. I also viewed Ashdon yesterday, he is Good.

For Message 2 to be the Seer, you would need the Wolf to have copied the Seer AND the Seer to have inexplicably copied the Wolf.

 

Tough one to decide. I'm still leaning towards the First Message being the Seer's but waiting to see what arguments develop. Worst comes to the worst we Lynch one tonight and the other tomorrow if Good unless the Messages tomorrow throw a spanner in the works. If we get another Good/Tinker Scenario then we are jinxed.

 

I can be confident of my reasoning because I know that the second message is the Wolf. I can also be confident because I know that I am the Harlot and thus can't be the Tinker.

Even without this though, I would implore you to look at the content of my above post. It's like a logic puzzle: if you accept that there are two different styles of message, it's possible to work it out. I also agree with you that had the Wolf posted first, it would have made more sense to keep naming people Good.

Anyway, I'm supposed to be working from home today and this game has sidetracked me somewhat so I need to disappear for a few hours and get some stuff done! My plea to everyone is to use logic, not gut feeling.

 

Will try and have a read of this properly later today, apologies for the lack ot activity

 

Can a player be a harlot and the tinker? And how do we know they're really the harlot anyway? May be copying what happened in the last game. I'm wary of anyone proclaiming themselves to be extra good.

 

So let me get this right, there are a massive 25 players and in just two days we've seen a wolf die, the martyr die, a definite evil, (or tinker), viewed and the harlot expose themselves?

Behave.

 

Wow this is all a bit confusing. I'm gonna read back through all this during lunch (or bog break) and see if it makes any more sense.

 

On nothing else but gut instinct, I'm swaying towards Message 2 being The Seer.

Message one just seems a bit odd.

However, if message 2 is the seer then why is SLB so active? That'd be foolish wolf behaviour and something I can't see him doing.

In conclusion, I haven't the slightest.

 

Well Harlot, you better watch the voting today because if it starts to go your way then you might want to let us know who's you stayed round last night.

 

It's what they do best

 

FFS Squibba, get a grip man.

 

My gut is truly awful to be fair, when I was the seer in the pre-xmas game I viewed 8 in a row and they were all good hahahaha

 

Surely that would be dangerous as the wolves may go and pay that person a visit tonight?

 

Don't do this to me again...

 

I'm disapointed all the people talking about gut instinct again, you'll feel like fools with all the tripe SLB is throwing your way that you're happily swallowing. It is a 50/50, I won't pretend it's anything more than that. Remember you need to vote for Team EVIL to save someone (potentially yourself) this evening, make the correct decision by lynching SLB.

 

If SLB isn't the Harlot then real Harlot step forward now. You are pretty safe as long as you stay out each night and would be a key move in tonight's vote.

 

If telling the truth (you're not) this is logical.

Conjecture.

So ignore half of what you've said above then?