The reason to limit it to 4 points is to show we don't need to get 6 to have any chance of survival. I'm not putting any limit on what we can achieve. Maybe I'm too humble, but I expect whether I predict 0, 4 or 6 points the correlation between that and the actual results we achieve will be 0%.
The point I'm putting across is we cannot accept anymore mess ups, certainly at this delicate stage of the season. If we are to stay up, the good run of wins has to come from somewhere and it has to start now. No one will stay up with 1 win and a cluster of 0-0 draws. We need to put clear water between us and the lame ducks. Norwich are gone, I'm sure of that. Southampton look as good as gone to me. If I was not a Watford supporter I'd say we'd have the best outside bet of surviving from the three in relegation currently but there is a lot of work to do. We need to find another team who are in freefall, overtake them and hope Southampton and Norwich remain poor for the rest of the season. That is a lot of "hopes", and all are out of our control, apart from when we play them of course. This is why it's so important to win the next two. Why not be demanding about it? Our position is dire right now and needs immediate attention.
I'm split. On the one hand, David's comments about a potential position after these two games, makes sense. It doesn't look at all that we would be cut adrift if we managed just 4 points. On the other hand, a team which manages just 2 wins from 14 games is probably doomed, unless they can somehow find a way to completely turn around that form quickly in the second half of the season. We keep hearing people say "if we don't get x points from the next x games, I will start to worry," but I was worried from West Ham at home. I could see that it wasn't a matter of losing that game in isolation, or just losing the first 3 games. I saw a team in disarray and looking on their way downwards, rather than upwards. There's a chance that Norwich was a turning point. Frankly it wasn't a convincing display, but it was a win, nonetheless. If the team can take that as a springboard and bounce back with confidence, they will have a chance. If Norwich was an isolated win, to be followed by more attritional drawing, at best, then we're doomed.
Apologies to forum members. I did bet on which would come first relegation or snow this season. Snow has fallen now, quite a nice dump. Skis waxed and Watford third from bottom. Will we still be in the Premier league before the snow begins to melt in April? We can have hope.
Attritional drawing isn't a disaster even now, being hard to beat will get us out of trouble, it just wont be the quick fix we all want, lets pick up points or even a point when we can. Those runs of three wins on the spin will come when we aren't predicting it and lets face it both Burnley and Saints are capable of beating us as we are them, they could go either way. It was the expectation of points that started the mess at the off when Gracia foolishly came out in the press talking about 12 points from them first four games. Who knew the opposition would have different ideas. A solid defence will keep us up lets be patient and play the long game
I agree that we probably do need to be safe or very close to it before the final two games but we are only 3 points from 17th. You talk about a good run but if were to pick up 4 points over the next two games I would suggest that's a good little run. It is not imperative that we get all 6 points and we will not be relegated if we don't. On the side note of the Mazarri season. With 3 games to go Hull needed 6 points, possibly 7 due to goal difference to catch us. They had taken 18 points from the previous 13 games so not sure why it is inexplicable that they didn't get the points required. That would have been one of the greatest escapes of all times. We were really never in any danger but you do seem to have a habit of dramatising things. Are you a journalist?!
Yes, it does seem unlikely they will go down. It is hard to see them not scraping enough points to stay up.Although I'm sure that was a prevailing view the last time they got relegated so maybe lightening will strike twice
Why are people looking at the last two games of the season anyway? That has to be the definition of getting ahead of ourselves. Loads of water going under the bridge before then not to mention a transfer window. Lots of points to play for still. Lets add to the tally Saturday and if not we go again the week after COYH
Hull were favourites to win two of their last three matches. To say we were never in danger is foolish only supported by hindsight. Just because Hull lost their last three doesn’t mean we were never in danger. We could have gone down and would have only for things outside of our control to go our way. As I say, we got lucky.
Mazarri had 40 points after 31 games. We were never realistically in danger. But we’ve had this discussion a million times so it’s pointless. Agree to disagree.
So what does it matter when we were on 40 points? We were still on 40 points after 38 games. Teams have been relegated on more than 40 points before. We got lucky that year.
Just because you say something doesn’t make it a fact. Why would us achieving 40 points make us lucky to survive? It isn’t hindsight, it was extremely unlikely that with 6 games left Hull would catch us. They needed to turn over a deficit of 10 points over just 6 games. Hull would have had to have their best run of the season over a 6 game stretch. And so it proved they fell short as their team wasn’t very good. Yet in the same breath you seem to think if we are more than 1-2 points off 17th place with 24 games left, we will have little chance to survive. You must be able to see the contradiction surely?
I should have been more scared when Hull didn’t catch us. I didn’t realise the odds were so heavily weighted against us. We dodged a bullet there.
We could have gone down but is was very unlikely. Of those 3 games they would have been favourites to beat Sunderland but not Palace away and as it was, they proved they weren't good enough and went down easily
But that year we only needed 34 points and it is hugely unlikely to go down with 40 points. it has always been the benchmark of teams trying to stay up and we got there after 31 games. I know you never back down but come on, surely you can see we were never at any point going down
Part of me wants to get this thread back onto the game against Burnley. But the other part thinks this a good distraction from what we almost certainly be a war of attrition, rather than enjoyable football. I just hope we get something out of the game, two wins on the bounce would be very nice.
Let’s be honest if 40 is the magic number we need 12 points from the next 7 games to be on track to survive I also think that unless we have a remarkable run of 5 or 6 wins on the trot we need to be relying on those around us to fall apart. It’s not helping that ManU / Arsenal / Tottenham keeps loosing to our fellow relegation rivals
West Ham - My tip, for what it's worth, for the next Premier League club to sack their manager. Although of course Southampton may beat them to it.
But why would someone back down when they believe they are right? Have you backed down? Nope, you also have stuck to your guns because you believe you're right. It's a difference of opinion. I believe we got away with it under Mazzarri. Regardless of likelihoods, we were in real danger of going down and had to rely on another team to lose at home to already relegated Sunderland and away at useless Palace. Hull had picked up 18 points from their previous 13 games. They were in very good form. I remember they beat Liverpool 2-0 and got a point at Old Trafford. With three games to go, we were in real danger. Just because it all worked out doesn't mean the possibility of relegation was not strong because we couldn't stop losing. It's strange, just because we stayed up means we were never in danger in the first place to some. It's like saying we never had a shout of a top half finish last season because we finished 11th in the end. We had a strong possibility of finishing in the top half and even Europe. But you may as well say we were never in the race because we finished in the bottom half of the table.
That's ok then. Once in 26 years means we must have been safe. Just like a team outside of the top six could never win the Premier League. You CAN go down with 40 points and Leicester did win the league. It happens. Anyone who thinks differently is in denial and live in an unreal sense of comfort.
There are some seriously underperforming clubs this season. Obviously us. West Ham, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Man Ut .not sure I’d put Southampton in there, as they were always likely to struggle. is that more than normal? It feels like it to me. Main over-performers are obviously Sheff Utd. you could throw Leicester in, but they have a good team and their main rivals are all doing crap. I was typing this as the Spurs news dropped. This makes me pretty happy as my spurs friends always mock me more than any other group of fans.
All this bandying about of selective statistics is one way of looking at the relegation situation. Certainly, Watford will need around 38 - 40 points to be almost sure of staying up. But it doesn't matter when they get them during the season. It is also worth looking at form - and WFC seem (to a limited extent) to be improving. More worrying to me, during the first few games under Gracia, was how they were playing: They were dreadful - full on relegation material. You didn't need stats to tell you that - you just had to watch them. Their defence and their defending (not quite the same thing) were woeful. Their midfield seemed to have lost skill, cohesion and zest and their attack was utterly impotent. Are they improving? Well, the defending, while it is certainly not brilliant, has been much improved. The midfield gradually seem to be re-finding their purpose. The attack still worries me: They just don't score enough of their opportunities. So, most of their points have come from recent improvements and, if that form continues, they may well inch their way to safety. Other teams, of course, will also improve, one way or another; and still other teams will decline. There is a long way to go: 'The league is a marathon, not a sprint' As Paisley said. (BTW: I think Burnley will win, but this is not a match I would put money on and it is entirely likely Watford will -- but either way the entire season is not wrapped up in it).
Based on your understanding of logic I assume you never do anything. People have died crossing the road. People have died in planes and boats. People have died from iPads exploding. You CAN die from anything. It happens. Can all of us on this forum please never do anything or we could all die tomorrow. Anyone who thinks differently is in denial and live in an unreal sense of comfort
You don't understand the predicament. We need to catch up with those clubs on 15 points. This is the group we need to be in sight of. Forget Everton, Spurs or even Villa and West Ham. All these clubs have the spending power to be able to do something about their situation in January. If you think Villa are the only team we need to overhaul, then fine. I have a different opinion. I think Villa will be ok this season. So if it's not going to be Villa in the bottom three, who is it likely to be? West Ham? who are considering Benitez apparently. Maybe Everton or Spurs? Not a chance. If it's not us, it will be a club like Newcastle, Brighton, Sheff Utd Bournemouth or Burnley who will go down with Southampton and Norwich.
