There are 8 teams within 4 points of us, 2 of whom are in the bottom 3. 4 points is nothing over 13 games and if we continue our poor run of W1 D3 L8 they will probably all pass us. We need to stay ahead of 2 of those plus WBA who are 7 points behind us (unless we climb back above BMuff which is unlikley if we continue current form). To do this we will probably need 3 wins (or 2 wins and lots of draws) though there are clearly differences over exactly how many points we need for safety. To win 3 will require an improvement over recent form with 5 very difficult games still to come. Thats all I'm saying !
Its going to be exciting. So many teams are involved that they can't all win but they can't all lose either. On saturday the fixtures are as below so its possible in the top 2 and last fixture, 3 of our rivals will win 3 points, or 6 of them will get a point. There are so many games between fellow relegation candidates that there is plenty of scope for them to pick up the points on us and we could end up with a raft of clubs around the 40 point mark. Take Brighton v WHU for example. WHU will climb above us on saturday unless they lose. But if they lose, Brighton will climb above us ! Personally i think our best chance is that Brighton, Hudd, & Newcastle keep losing as i think Sturridge will score the goals to keep WBA up (he will thrive on being the main-man) AFC Bournemouth15:00Stoke City Brighton & Hove Albion15:00West Ham United Leicester City15:00Swansea City Manchester United15:00Huddersfield Town West Bromwich Albion15:00Southampton
My bet is on 36 points being safe; I can't see teams near the bottom averaging a point per game. I actually think 2 wins and 2 draws could see us safe, provided the wins are against relegation rivals - we'd also need to maintain a decent goal difference.
I hope you are right but i just don't see it. We are 4 points above the drop zone and I can't see that W2 D2 L9 would be enough. It only takes 7 of the 8 teams directly below us to improve on that by 1-4 points to pass us (ie an extra draw, to a win and a draw) (or 6 of them and WBA to gain 7 points) and we would be down. I don't think its impossible but unlikely. The next 6 games will give a better view as we play chelsea, arsenal and Liverpool.
That's 4 games ? Do you mean W1 D2 L2 where the one win was in the FA cup against BC reserves ? Or the last 6 league games W1 D2 L3 stretching back to include the win vs Leicester ? 5 points from every 6 games might possibly be ok
Unless we start flying again then depressing is going to have to be acceptable. Stay up and roll on the first 6 months of next season til the inevitable decline again.
Agreed. After West Ham its then a 2 week break till 24th so maybe Gino was thinking about returning players once we lost on Saturday. More games for Huddersfield and Swansea-if they win their replays and Brighton, West Brom and Southampton. They might pick up confidence of course or heaven forbid injuries
Would leave us on approx 37/38, should be enough The two late losses against Swansea and Palace make me feel sick thinking back. Hold on to both and we'd have been safe already
People underestimate 4 points at this stage in the season and for teams in poor form. If a point per game is enough to keep a team up, then 4 points is sort of (but not quite) like have 4 games in hand. Alternatively, it's around 30% of the expected 13 points a team will pick up from now until the end of the season. When you look at it in the worst case, short term, it can easily be chewed up. I'm not trying to underplay our risky position. But when you actually look at it in the grand scheme of things 4 points isn't trivial and might just be the difference for us.
Yeah sorry. Used my nob to post with rather than my brain. Executed terribly, but was, as you guessed, trying to point out that our current average is better than our worst average. Did a great job of cocking it up though. Thanks. Genuinely!
Gracia will do his homework on the top sides and I reckon we’ll get a suprise win and a draw out of the top 5 sides we still need to play, we will also get at least two wins against the crap teams we need to play too, so that would be 10 points. Chuck in a couple of draws and we will be fine. It’s not going to be pretty mind.
Muff are 4 pts above Stoke. If we think they are more likely to stay up then we should be backing them much as it grates. A soul-destroying 6-0 loss for stoke to impact GD and kill morale would be ideal. A leicester win would be good. Brighton vs WHU ? Difficult call but i guess WHU are more likely to stay up so a win for them or draw would be best though I think BHA may win that one. Bottom line though is we need to win some points !
I'd say we need a 0-0 draw between Brighton and WHU. 1 point each (and the other point disappearing from the equation) has to be better than 3 points to one of them. Similarly Muff v Stoke. A draw is best. I suppose either a draw or a home win would be best in the WBA v S'pton game. Lesta and Man U, we obviously want home wins.
Yeah also 4 points from bottom! And one of four teams on 27pts. Amazing how tight it's shaping up to be.
Two of the bottom three losing. Lovely. Pellegrino to be sacked after this game and Marco Silva to come in.
The Stoke game is annoying, as much as I don’t want muff to win, now they’re above us it would probably be better if they did to keep stoke down there. Could also do with WBA equalising and that being a draw.
Absolutely typical! For the first time I can remember since being aware of Bournemouth,I want them to win. I get into my car after five hours on court and half an hour watching Murray Major doing his rather poor Max Wall impression and they are 1-0 down! Useless. Can't rely on anyone.
I know they have been poor all season but I genuinely cannot see Southampton being down there for long on today's performance, they look to have enough quality and now some confidence as well.
Not ideal so far but you can only control your own results. Defeat for WBA today would leave them adrift. Our situation would be clearer were there one side rock bottom. Then you’re looking for two others, and in present form I’d say Huddersfield and Brighton as neither are winning much lately. Lol apart from when they both played us of course.
