Christmas Werewolf - Day 2

15 players - 4 evil, 11 good
HH24 - 100% good
Leaves 14 players - 4 evil, 10 good

If Ashdon viewed:
Ashdon 100% good
Remaining players 69.2% good (9/13)

If Steve Harrow viewed:
Steve Harrow 100% good
Remaining players 69.2% good (9/13)

There is a 50% chance Ashdon was viewed, and 50% chance Steve Harrow was viewed. Therefore taking into consideration all probabilities, we arrive at the following:

HH24 - 100% good
Ashdon, Steve Harrow - 84.6% good
All remaining players - 69.2% good

Lynch a random non-named player, 30.8% chance they are evil, don't find out which messages are from the seer.
Lynch a named player, 15.4% chance they are evil, in which case we find out which messages are from the seer.

Finding out which messages are from the seer will tell us the other named player is good, but the alpha will likely copy the seer from then on.
I don't want to attach probabilities to this, but lynching a random would increase the probability of lynching the seer, assuming the seer is less likely to name themselves than any other individual player.

 

ashdon posted this morning too.

 

So what you are saying is we are stuffed!

 

Unfortunately there is no 'obvious' choice. It boils down to each individual player's value system - that is to say does the fact we have the chance of confirming another player as good outweigh the lower probability of lynching an evil.

 

Not saying you're wrong but how does the leap from 69.2% to 84.6% come about?

I've always struggled with this kind of compound probability so showing your working would really help!

 

No clue if your maths actually add up but that is an impressive post!

 

Let's take Ashdon for example. There is a 50% chance he was viewed. If he was viewed, then he is 100% good. If he wasn't viewed (also a 50% chance), we know no more about him compared to anyone else, therefore he is 69.2% good.
We combine the probabilities as: 100% x 50% + 69.2% x 50% = 84.6%

More formally:
Denote P(A) as the probability Ashdon is good.
Let V = viewed, NV = not viewed.
We can say P(A) = P(A|V) P(V) + P(A|NV) P(NV)
Here P(A|V) means the probability Ashdon is good, given Ashdon was viewed
P(V) = 50%
P(A|V) = 100%
P(NV) = 50%
P(A|NV) = 69.2%
Plug in the numbers and we get 84.6% as above.

 

Perfect, thanks!

 

TomWatfordFC would you kindly forecast my pension pot retirement year please. I need your mathematical index to see if I will still be working until I'm 75, 81 or 97.

 

Voted Otter. Off to some client drinks now.

Only follow my vote if you are evil.

 

Ha! I voted Otter yesterday and was thinking about the same today. I'd be extra sus about you if that wasn't just such a Moog thing to say.

 

This could be the game that changes the course of werewolf for years to come with the statistical perspective.

I can’t disagree with the logic, vote me off if you like, but I am as the message named me. Good.

It will be a shame though as I don’t think it’ll tell us anymore about the messages at this point.

 

I need to work that out for myself before I offer my services to anyone else!

 

I have voted for moog, I don't whether having him as the reserve tinker traitor in the game I ran a couple of weeks ago has given him extra bravado but the looking beyond his first post yesterday all I can see is seeding confusion whether in jest or not (implying evil hiding in plain sight) is not useful to team good. Therefore I vote moog because his posts are causing more harm than good irrespective of which side his bread is buttered.

 

Is Moog evil and trying to cause chaos?
Or is Moog just trying to get the game going early given it’s normally pretty tedious on the first day or 2?

I find myself asking the above questions every game. If you read over the last game, I was wary of him early doors then - and I was killed. But I find myself asking if he would employ the same tactics this time but as a different evil role?

 

I know. But I’m trying to show off. I had him down as bad from the start.

 

Voting closes at 6pm don’t forget

 

Might be more that there are less of us able to put in the detective work this time around offset the Mooginess. Me personally I'm a retail manager so this time of year is pure hell currently and I just dip in when I get a chance to break away from the store.

 

I’m going to have to vote now as I’m on call and heading off to a colicing horse. I’m going to vote Steve Harrow.

I think we need to vote for a named player and so it’s between Steve and Ashdon for me. As ashdon didn’t post until later, Steve stands a higher chance of being the alpha IMO.

 

Final sentence here the clincher for me. He does make the game more fun and I know he likes to shake the tree to see what happens but just not sure it's that helpful!

 

Joined the steve harrow train. (sorry, just not much to go on, and I don't believe you are the Seer)

 

I joined the Moog train.

 

Half an hour and eight votes to go

 

In Tom’s maths we trust, sorry Steve.