April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Diamond, Apr 2, 2020.

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Day 2 - Who's going to be lynched?

Poll closed Apr 3, 2020.

  1. Wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  2. Nornironhorn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  3. miked2006

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  4. Lowerrous

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  5. GoingDown

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  6. Cassetti’s Beard

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  7. hornetgags

    13 vote(s)
    86.7%

  8. domthehornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  9. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  10. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  11. Squibba

    2 vote(s)
    13.3%

  12. steve harrow

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  13. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  14. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  15. BigRossLittleRoss

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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Page 4 of 6
  1. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    I'm kinda in agreement. Nothing to lose and voting for them is as random as anyone else right now.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #106
  2. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Nornironhorn has been in general been far less involved in the game so far this time compared to the previous one (when he turned out to also be the Seer).

    It could just be because they were the seer before it made them extra eager to search for clues.
     
    lowerrous, Apr 2, 2020
    #107
    wfcmoog likes this.
  3. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Well today's first message has a quite obvious hint in it, a bit too obvious though..
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #108
  4. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    As I said, not throwing accusations just stating the trends.
     
    hornetgags, Apr 2, 2020
    #109
  5. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    But what if the posts are similar in style tomorrow? We aren't learning anything by lynching a random.
     
    GoingDown, Apr 2, 2020
    #110
  6. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    So we've got a wolf trying to be clever and a seer trying to help...and both failing.
     
    hornetgags, Apr 2, 2020
    #111
  7. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Just copied the messages into a Word doc to be able to analyse clearer.

    If our supposed Seer is claiming the timestamps have some importance then I'm assuming both messages at 11:09 are his or hers? Which leaves Ross.

    Or a wolf who's posted at 11:09 on purpose but that would be pretty clever early on
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #112
  8. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    I said that in the last game and everyone lynched you randomly!!!
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #113
    GoingDown likes this.
  9. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    11:09 spells KI in a letter to number generator thing online was hoping one of the other timestamps would spell LL to make KILL lol but that's 12:12 and no message has come at the time.

    Confused!!
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #114
  10. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    You're probably correct with this.

    In addition, last game we had more to go on logically at this point as we knew which message was which for sure (I certainly did anyway as one was from me!).

    The seer's strange message yesterday hasn't helped us much and as you can see in the last 4 pages we have nothing to go on so I don't have much to add yet.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 2, 2020
    #115
  11. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Who is there we could lynch today and really learn something from though?

    If we went for one of hornetgags, Horace, or BigRossLittleRoss, then surely the only way in which we could actually learn something is in the narrow chance that whichever one we picked turned out to actually be evil?
     
    lowerrous, Apr 2, 2020
    #116
    wfcmoog and Horace_goes_up_north like this.
  12. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    Which just means tomorrow the wolf will send a message at 11.09 as well.
     
    hornetgags, Apr 2, 2020
    #117
  13. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Are you my daughter?
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 2, 2020
    #118
    Steve Leo Beleck likes this.
  14. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Which leaves Ross what?
     
    lowerrous, Apr 2, 2020
    #119
  15. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Agree absolutely with this. I’ve been the Beta Wolf before and my fear was that I’d accidentally target the Alpha (in that game the wolves could accidentally kill one another). I would only target players I was reasonably confident were good. So whoever the Alpha is must be playing a v good game at appearing to be, well, good!
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 2, 2020
    #120
    wfcmoog likes this.
  16. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    I see your point but if one does, at least we have something to go on tomorrow
     
    GoingDown, Apr 2, 2020
    #121
  17. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Haha, nope just on day 16 of work from home and binge watched three seasons of Ozark in four days! Sleeping pattern is in the bin.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #122
  18. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    Working from home and sleeping until 2pm? Can I have a job?
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #123
  19. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Sorry, which leaves Ross my first choice vote right now.

    There’s not much to gain from voting anybody right now with the information available but if we vote Ross and he’s innocent then that means Gags is in the firing line for tomorrow.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #124
  20. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    They could both be good and lynched and we still probably wouldn't learn anything, given that the wolf would just be guessing who to name.
     
    lowerrous, Apr 2, 2020
    #125
    Horace_goes_up_north and BigRossLittleRoss like this.
  21. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    Right. Lynch one named good and if they are good then lynch another named good.

    You arrive late and are now trying to direct voting...
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #126
  22. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    Yeah it seems a disruptive approach not really based on logic.

    Sporadic posting and when they post it seems to sow confusion.
     
    BigRossLittleRoss, Apr 2, 2020
    #127
  23. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    Sorry by that logic, why not Horace?
     
    hornetgags, Apr 2, 2020
    #128
  24. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    The village closes at 6pm tonight.
     
    Diamond, Apr 2, 2020
    #129
  25. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    They’ve both been named as Good today. FACT.

    One of those messages has to have come from the Wolf. FACT.

    Why would a wolf name someone as good? What would they gain?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #130
  26. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Genuinely no clue who to vote for today. The only facts to go on are:
    1. Nisman named Evil and then Hornetgags named Good by the Wolf/Seer. Nisman was actually good, so either he was the tinker or the wolf randomly named a player evil. This would be a very punchy move by the wolf, especially as it was the first message, because he would surely expect the seer to follow up by viewing the same player and then we would already know which message was which and be able to look for style clues, etc very early on. Hornetgags is either good (if message is from the Seer) or unknown (if message is from the wolf)
    2. BRLR and Horace both named Good by the Wolf/Seer. Either they are both good or they are both unknown.

    On the one hand I think it unlikely/unlucky that the Seer viewed the tinker on Day 1. On the other hand, I think it more likely that a Seer would try to write in a different style from the outset, to try to make it more difficult for a wolf to copy. If the wolf had gone first with a rhyming message, as the Seer I would have followed a completely different style, not followed with a rhyme of my own. And I still can’t see the logic of a Seer not viewing Nisman if they had gone second yesterday.
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 2, 2020
    #131
  27. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    Credibility.

    Unless really ballsy, they're unlikely to name a wolf so they've randomly chosen someone. All three could be good.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #132
  28. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Because Ross in the same message as Horace so if he’s Good then that message is likely The Seer.

    If he’s Evil then Message 1 today becomes extra suspicious because that implicates Horace too no?

    These are all ramblings and discussions by the way, the more we talk the more there is too learn about posters.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #133
  29. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Could be for sure but that’s the game isn’t it. Makes more sense than killing of randoms.

    If we knew for sure who was Good and who was Evil it wouldn’t be any fun!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #134
  30. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    The Alpha wouldn't know who the Beta was anyway.

    Or?
     
    lowerrous, Apr 2, 2020
    #135
  31. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    The wolf has a lot to gain from naming someone as good. They need us villagers to remain confused about which message is from whom for as long as possible. There are more good villagers than evil at the beginning of a game so the odds are that a viewing is more likely to be good than evil. A wolf could keep naming random villagers as evil but it would only take a couple of days for the game to be up as far as which message is coming from them. Also, to do so runs the risk of a wolf accidentally naming an actual fellow evil. Better to accidentally name an evil as good.
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 2, 2020
    #136
  32. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    Congratulations, you've just earned my vote.
     
    hornetgags, Apr 2, 2020
    #137
  33. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    The last sentence no longer rings true though does it as they know each other?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    wfcSinatra, Apr 2, 2020
    #138
  34. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    Exactly, unless they've somehow guessed. So likely they've got as much of a clue as we have.

    I'm sure Squibba knows this...
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 2, 2020
    #139
  35. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    What's the reasoning behind a wolf naming someone as good, confusion right? There's no way the Alpha Wolf knows anyone's roles right - so a random pick?
     
    Cassetti's Beard, Apr 2, 2020
    #140
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