Who honestly believes we will stay up this season?

If we maintained current form we'd end up with a further 40 points

 

Correct, I didn't suggest we needed to. Given we are only 1 point above one of those, and 2 points above another, it would be nice to think we could catch the 4 teams 0-4 pts above us rather than relying on staying above those 3. We may not be above Muff or AV by the end of the coming weekend.

 

Masina said we'll stay up

 

Has to be the minimum expectation now.

 

We've done well to get to 17th from our desperate position but let's not get complacent. The key thing in the immediate future is to get 3 points versus Villa, anything we get against Spurs would be a bonus.

 

What a difference a couple of weeks make:

Norwich 1/16 to go down and 10/1 to stay up.
Villa 8/13 to go down and 10/11 to stay up.
Bournemouth 10/11 to go down and 5/6 to stay up.
Watford 3/1 to go down and 2/9 to stay up.
Newcastle 3/1 to go down and 2/9 to stay up.
West Ham 16/5 to go down and 2/9 to stay up

Bookies now slightly more convinced on Villa going down, Bournemouth have taken over their "who knows" spot.

 

I've changed my vote from Nay to Yay.
I think it's 50/50 to be honest but at one point I though we were done for.
I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

This is the beginning of our late surge towards a European place, it'll be tough but we'll make it on the last day when we smash Arsenal 4-0.

I've already got a tenner on top 6 at 200/1

 

as soon as our odds hit 5-1 to go down I'm lumping on. Do you think a win v spurs will do it?

 

It's looking promising. Got a good feeling we're picking up max points against Spurs and a Deeney hattrick at Villa will secure my prediction.

 

You can't change your vote now! At the end of the season those that had not got the faith will need to be called out to the pond in the Parade and either stoned or drowned!

 

If you float, you're a witch.

 

And then we will stone you!

 

18th team could get 40+ this season due to only Liverpool being on top form. I think we need 6 wins/3 draws to b 100% safe.

 

The 18th team could get 40+ this season due to only Liverpool being on top form. I think we need 6 wins/3 draws to b 100% safe. Some other teams at the bottom will also go on runs. It always happens.

 

It's not like City are exactly shaming themselves, and there were plenty of years before this insane City/Poolton 100-point-season phenomenon began recently in which the 18th team did not get 40+ points, in fairness.

 

Yes, as I posted in the other thread none of the bottom three are close to being on track for 40 points. The points have definitely been a bit more spread out in the middle, but not at the very bottom as it stands. All of the bottom three would need an upturn in form for 40 not to be enough again.

 

Yep, we're on a point per game, and 18th and 19th have already played their relatively favourable fixtures. Probably be something around 36 to stay up

 

Are you sure 18th and 19th have currently played their "relatively favourable fixtures"?

We're only four matches past the half-way mark!

 

Villa and Bournemouth have played three relegation rivals twice already, that's what I'm talking about

 

I’ve said in another thread this week is massive. All teams have a little break from league football for a week or so. Muff host Brighton us away at villa. Wet spam at Leicester. I’m predicting 3 away wins. Disastrous for muff as it will put them 6 points from safety and they will also of lost 3 6 pointers in a row. Then a 4 point cushion between us and villa, feels more like a 9 pointer than a 6


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Said yes but we still have a lot of work to do due to our atrocious start

 

Also for 40 points not to be enough the bottom team or bottom two teams tend to get completely cut adrift. That hasn’t happened yet.

 

50/50 today. What will it be at 10pm tomorrow ?

 

If we win we could go to 15th place, but if we lose we could be 19th, but certainly will be in the bottom three again.

We've done so well, but it just goes to show how precarious our position still is. Had we been level par with everyone, then gone on this run of 4 wins and 2 draws, we'd now be safe, pretty much. Because we had a lot of catching up to do, all our run has done is put us level with our clubs around the drop zone.

We're the form team, but that changes very quickly in football. Lose at Villa, then it's only 1 point from 2 games.

This game is pivotal and can have a massive impact on the league table.

 

Goal difference could well play it's part this season, any clean sheets are a big bonus.

 

Here is my % update after the Spurs game. A marginal but very slight reduction in our chances of staying up - 70% chance.

The Burnley and Newcastle results now give them a very good chance of staying up, unless they both go on a very poor run of 4-5 games again now. Both of their squads seem capable of getting the odd win here and there at the moment, which is probably all they need to do. 1 win and 1 draw every five games to the end of the season would see them on 39 and 41 points at the end of the season respectively.

As you would expected a win here would be massive us as well as being a big blow for Villa:
Now 70%
Win 81%
Lose 58%
Draw 68%

 

I didn't think so before but with Person now it looks like a completely different team that can hold their own.

 

Before Villa? Very confident. After Villa? Still thought we were odds on, though obviously that was a blow.
Now? Definitely odds against, it's not the loss that's the main thing, it's the manner of it. If we win at Brighton, I'd say we're back into odds on again, though am I confident we'll get anything there? Am I ****

 

Hedging your bets there!

 

I keep swinging back and forth like Mr swingy from back and forth town. Currently in nay.

 

While today was an absolute sh*t show we did play very well in the first half. It was desperately annoying to lose in the last seconds, but I hope we will bounce back. We have already proven we have the ability to go on a mental run of points, and while there is still hope why cant we go on another run like the one we had over Christmas. We missed Sarr today but he will be back soon, and we are a much better side with him in it

 

Not now.

Ridiculous subs are killing us.

 

Remaining Fixtures: -

BRIGHTON (A) - Must get at least 1 pt hopefully all 3
MAN UTD (A) - Hopefully 1 pt, probably 0 pts
LIVERPOOL (H) - A point would be nice, probably 0 pts
PALACE (A) - 1 pt a must, hopefully all 3
LEICESTER (H) - As above
BURNLEY (H) - As above
SOUTHAMPTON (H) - As above
CHELSEA (A) - Hopefully 1 pt, probably 0 pts
NORWICH (H) - 1 pt a must, hopefully all 3
NEWCASTLE (H) - As above
WEST HAM (A) - As above
MAN CITY (H) - Hopefully 1 pt, probably 0 pts
ARSENAL (A) - As above.

I think we have 8 possible winnable games left, so maybe all is not lost. If we can win say 4/5 games and pick up 3/4 draws from those 8 games I think we might just stay up.

Four wins and four draws would give us 39 pts which I think might just be enough to keep us up, any more points would be a bonus and probably would definitely be enough to keep us up.

SO COME ON GUYS WE CAN STILL DO THIS​

 

I said after the 3-0 loss to Burnley that we would go down. Apart from a faint glimmer of home when Pearson came in nothing else has happened to change my mind.