Who honestly believes we will stay up this season?

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by folkestone orn, Nov 23, 2019.

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Will be stay up this season?

  1. Yay

    56 vote(s)
    40.9%
  2. Nay

    81 vote(s)
    59.1%
  1. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Crazy where a lot of those teams are now. Charlton, Blackburn, Boro, Leeds, Birmingham, Bolton, Sunderland. Just goes to show what can happen with terrible owners.
     
  2. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    The reason 40 points has been enough in recent seasons and in fact why 36 has been in enough for a number of years is the emergence of the big 6. They’ve hoovered up a lot more of the points and thus 40 has been enough in most cases.

    This season it’s obvious a lot of the big 6 are struggling. Liverpool are the only ones relentlessly soldiering on, even City are poorer than normal.

    The only way that 40 points could still be enough if the big 6 sort their act out and regain their normal form. Possible with Arsenal, Man Utd look unlikely, spurs, who knows but the Mourinho honeymoon looks to be over already, and Chelsea are still inconsistent.
     
    Teide1 likes this.
  3. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Good chance on current form of 7 points at least in January.
     
  4. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    I'd put us at around 50/50 at the moment. Fantastic achievement considering where we were a few weeks ago.
     
  5. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Squad Player

    The other reason, similar to why West Ham went down with so many points, is the number of teams in the mix who've beaten us. In 2002/03 Aston Villa and Bolton beat West Ham, and Leeds took 6 points off them.

    If we'd swapped the draws with Arsenal, Spurs and Sheff Utd with the defeats against Brighton, Burnley and Southampton we'd still be in a bad situation with the same number of points as we had following QSF's sacking, but we wouldn't be so far adrift.

    We had a mountain to climb when QSF left and for a while afterwards when we couldn't score, and even after a great run of form in a tough run of games, we're still not out of the relegation zone (which we would be in many previous seasons at the same stage with the same points total), and bad luck has played its part, but the mountain has largely been of our own making.

    Hopefully the top teams will get their act together and/or one or two teams start/continue plummeting, but we have to continue to do our job regardless.
     
    Happy bunny and SkylaRose like this.
  6. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    If we beat Muff I would put survival at >50%. If we lose, 25%.
     
  7. reids

    reids First Team

    It's interesting looking at the bookies markets for relegation and to avoid relegation:

    Norwich 1/16 to go down and 7/1 to stay up.
    Villa 5/6 to go down and 5/6 to stay up.
    Bournemouth 13/10 to go down and 8/15 to stay up.
    Watford 13/10 to go down and 4/7 to stay up.
    Newcastle 3/1 to go down and 2/9 to stay up.
    West Ham 4/1 to go down and 1/6 to stay up (with a game in hand over the others).

    Bookies aren't really sure on us, Bournemouth or Villa it seems. If West Ham lose that game in hand against Sheff Utd then that will tighten things up considerably. Best value bet out that lot looks to be on Villa to go down, their next 2 games are against Leicester and Man City so imagine they'll be dropping into the relegation zone soon and you'll be able to cash out for a bit of quick profit.
     
    Hornet4ever likes this.
  8. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Squad Player

    I thought West Ham's game in hand was Liverpool at home?
     
  9. ryorn

    ryorn Ryorn

    Watford 25-1 top ten finish , just saying
     
  10. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Good luck Moyesey.
     
  11. reids

    reids First Team

    Both Heaton and Wesley out for the season for Villa, good news for us (although Wesley is crap anyway).
     
  12. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    They will just buy replacements. We really wanted these injuries to happen on 1/2/20 !
     
  13. reids

    reids First Team

  14. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    FFP is a bit of a paper tiger in the Premier League. Would be amazed if they ever actually took action against any club for breaching. More like any breach would result in an urgent board meeting where the perpetrator club would be asked to explain to the other 19 clubs what happened, so they could all agree to fiddle the rules to prevent it becoming a problem again.
     
  15. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

  16. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    Good call on the Villa bet especially as Heaton and Wesley are out for the season. Need to go check this out.
     
  17. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild

    I'm kind of convinced this season will be the reverse of our previous seasons in the Premier League.

    We've always started well, amassed enough points to survive then the New Year demise takes over and we hit relegation form.

    We've hit the relegation form early, now the run to amass points for survival comfortably.

    Personallly, if muff and Burnley go down with Norwich, then it's been a good season - nothing against Norwich, but lots against the other 2.
     
  18. LutherB

    LutherB Academy Graduate

    We are staying up.
     
  19. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

  20. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    Would be perverse now if we go down.
     
  21. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    Looking at it very broadly, we have 16 games to go. Even if we need a higher than recently-needed total of the actual 40 points to survive this season, that means we need 5 wins and 3 draws from those matches. That's really not an impressive feat at all; it's fairly average form, to win fewer than one in three of your matches.

    What this incredible run of results that Pearson has inspired since he came in has done is to basically reset the counter, so we've gone from a position of near-record-breaking desperation to a very standard 'do as well as expected and you'll be alright'.

    A couple of months ago, the kind of form needed seemed impossible, because any form seemed impossible. Now, we are talking about a different team, and none of the results we've had have been flukes; they were the result of massively improved individual and team performances that have seen us recapture a more natural level of performance. As a result of that, we don't have to win every game, and we aren't on a knife edge every match we go into. We can lose again this season, and we can have matches where we play worse than we have been doing in recent times, and we are still likely to be alright.

    When he came in, we knew that to escape, we would need at some point at the very least to have one of those miraculous winning runs where four or five results are strung together and entirely change the narrative, a la Palace the season before last. I found it very difficult to see our lot pulling that out of the bag, even if we did manage some improvement, and instead Nige has done it within a single gameweek of coming in, so he (along with his staff) must take an enormous amount of credit.
     
    Chiswell likes this.
  22. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Drink this in. Over the last 5 games we have won as many games as the following teams COMBINED:
    • Spurs
    • Palace
    • Arsenal
    • Burnley
    • Bournemouth
    • Norwich
    I think we’d all have take that 5 games ago!
     
  23. IRB

    IRB THe artist formally know as ImRonBurgundy?

    We need 6 wins (or more likely, 5 and 3 draws) from our last 16 games

    Our remaining fixtures include: Villa (A), Everton (H), Brighton (A), Palace (A), Burnley (A), Saints (H), Norwich (H), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A)

    There are certainly enough favourable games remaining for us to get the points we need if we can continue to match the performance levels we have set in recent weeks.

    As well all know, in reality we will pick up some points in games where we don't expecte to and vice versa. Lets just hope we come out on top on balance, as always, ensuring we win some games at home and avoid defeat away against the teams around us (Burnley, Villa, Brighton) will be the key
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  24. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I think the amazing thing is that I never thought big Nige didn’t have it in him to get us out of it, but with a 9 point deficit I assumed it would go right down to the wire as far as us getting out of the relegation zone.

    Of course we might slip back in, even as soon as next week, but to do it by January within 5 weeks Is nothing short of a miracle.

    Escaping relegation was described as having to be some sort of miracle full stop, so what is escaping it potentially as soon as January called.

    The only worry is that we can’t carry on like this forever and will inevitably hit bad/patchy form. This is when our horrendous start could come back to haunt us through no fault of big Nige and the teams overall performance since he took over.

    We've beaten Norwich and spanked Villa and Bournemouth, there are literally three teams a lot worse than us, yet it doesn’t mean we still won’t go down.
     
  25. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    W
    What is great is that now we don’t need to have amazing form against the top teams. And in reality it is only Liverpool and Man City that you would think we are very unlikely to get points from. Sure, if Leicester or Arsenal turn up and play well they should beat us. But so many of the good teams are continuing to play erratically that we will surely pick up a few points along the way from them.
     
  26. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Saints, Norwich and Newcastle at home should be 3 out of those 5/6 wins. I would then say Villa away should be another win, so that’s 4. Of the others, anything can happen. It really depends on what Everton, Burnley, Brighton, Palace and West Ham turn up.

    Either way, out of those 9 games alone we should be winning at least 4 of them as a bare minimum.
     
  27. IRB

    IRB THe artist formally know as ImRonBurgundy?

    Norwich and Newcastle, yes. Saints, hard to tell, their run of form is just as impressive as ours.

    Would be tempted to take 2 points from Burnley and Villa away if you offered them to me now, crucial we don't lose those games

    Agree with you, Everton, Brighton, Palace and West Ham depends on how the opposition turns up on the day, all hard to predict this season
     
  28. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Agreed. The only two teams we have basically no chance against are City and Liverpool, i.e. two of our remaining 16 games. In every other game we have at least a reasonable shot of earning a win, even if we're not favoured.

    The gap in quality between the non-elite Premier League sides seems much closer this season.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  29. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Saints are one injury away to Ings from
    Being dragged right back in it. He’s literally saving their season. I just think we have to be winning our home games. We smashed Saints at their place, if it wasn’t for QSF’s absolute mere of tactics, we would have come away with all three points. Granted that’s what got him the sack, so blessing in disguise. Saints have some confidence now and are on a good run, but we have more than enough to beat them.

    Villa are rubbish, championship team all over bar the little school girl Grealish. A point against them is embarrassing. Grealish is the only one that would make it in our squad. Even then he wouldn’t be in our starting 11. I fully expect three points against them at their ground.

    Burnley I agree, I would take a point, not because we can’t beat them, but purely because they always turn up against us. Although now with Pearson I expect a totally different type of game, so it will be interesting.
     
  30. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    50/50 now I think. Obviously if all teams continue their form of the last 5 games we'll be fine but we all know you can't just extrapolate recent form. We may be back in the bottom 3 at some point but hopefully we'll have enough to be clear before those difficult last 2 games.
     
  31. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    With survival secured this thread can now be closed down, all efforts should now be on the old European thread.
     
  32. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    I still believe we will be relegated.

    A loss tonight v Tranmere starts the rot then we'll lose handsomely to spurs, other results will go against as and we're back in the bottom three. The players fragile confidence will visibly shatter when their 4th goal goes in.

    4 further losses on the spin will see us bottom and we go on to pick up only 7 more points this season.

    Star players, manager and fans alike desert the club in the summer and the only bright spark over the next 2 years will be for those canny fans who've bet on us suffering back to back relegations (me).
     
  33. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    At least when we have to sell the stadium to Morrisons we can play at Minecraft Vicarage Road.
     
  34. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Could we merge Fifa 19 players into our Minecraft stadium?
     
  35. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Just to point out that we don’t have to maintain current form to survive. We are out of the bottom three, so we just have to keep pace with Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth for the rest of the season to stay above them.
     

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