Will We Make The Play Offs?

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Feb 5, 2023.

  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Here are our remaining fixtures:-

    Blackburn (h)..D
    Burnley (a)..L
    WBA (h)..D
    Sheff Utd (a)..L
    Preston (h)..W
    QPR (a)..L
    Birmingham (h)..W
    Wigan (h)..W
    Luton (a)..L
    Huddersfield (h)..W
    Coventry (a)..W
    Bristol City (h)..W
    Cardiff (h)..W
    Hull (a)..W
    Sunderland (a)..D

    These are my predictions. 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats. Total points 75.

    We should be able to squeak into them in 5th or 6th place. 75 points sometimes is not enough, but I think it will get us over the line this season. We've been averaging a 75 point final total for some time, so I don't see a significant reason to suggest we'll get a lot more than this.
  2. wfcwarehouse

    wfcwarehouse First Team Captain

    No. We will finish 8th or 9th.
    RS2, The_gambler and wfc4ever like this.
  3. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

  4. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Just a pointless exercise really, the two teams clearly better than us this season we have actually already beat once in Burnley & Sheff United.

    And by your own predictions, we will not win any of the next 4 making it no wins in 7? Then beat Preston and lose to QPR for ONE win in 9.

    Will Bilic survive a run of 1 win in 9 for us to then suddenly find confidence go on and win 8 of the last 10 or will it be the famous new manager bounce that takes us galloping to Wembley?

    Pozzo Out, jackwfc, Ilkley and 2 others like this.
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    That’s what I factored in, hence the good run at the end of the season.
  6. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    JP to coming back now and Louza not far off seemingly, I still remain fairly confident we can get top 6, but not so confident we go up
  7. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I’d put as at about 60/40 against making them given our next few fixtures. I’d place us last in terms of actually winning them, taking into account or mentality and our current manager.
    The undeniable truth likes this.
  8. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    We won’t make the playoffs under Bilic, let alone win them. You have to dominate, make chances and score goals to be at the top end of this division. We don’t do much of that. We don’t do much of anything. A couple of returning first teamers won’t change much that we saw yesterday.

    Maybe a different coach with some actual tactical ideas takes us on a run and into the playoffs. Although winning them with this squad and this current hierarchy mentality is not a good thing.
    Chumlax, RS2, UEA_Hornet and 2 others like this.
  9. Loyalhornet

    Loyalhornet Reservist

    I think we will make the playoffs, particularly if the long term injured return and stay fit . I think the bigger issue is, if we do make it , can we actually go into them with a bit of momentum ? Given how the season has gone, not that likely .
  10. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    When you consider the fact we’ve only won three on the bounce once this season, somehow winning the play offs is actually pure fantasy.
    NathWFC likes this.
  11. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Technically you don’t need to win three to go up in the play offs. You can do it by drawing all three and going through on penalties. You can lose one and win the other leg by more goals, you can draw the final and get promoted on penalties.

    So zero wins can still get you promoted. 1 defeat can still get you promoted.
  12. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    This is my feeling too. Once everyone is back, and as long as they stay fit and perform, we should end the season on a high with a bit of momentum.

    But I don’t see the resolve and will to win via the play offs. Collectively our team is mentally weak. Any adversity and they collapse instantly. This is why I think we’ll get there but I don’t think we have the nerve to see it through.
  13. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Yes I know that, but regardless, our inability to string more than a couple of wins together means we’ll struggle to overcome two of the better teams in the league. I think our next four games will probably help to highlight just how difficult that will be for us.
  14. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    I think we'll have a really poor February due to the lack of confidence in the squad, and the fixtures we've got. We'll then be around 12th. I think we'll then go on a decent-ish run with a full strength squad, and sneak back into the play offs.

    Hopefully that run is towards the end of the season and we take some decent form into the play offs. The teams we'll be playing are in much better form currently and have a more coherent style but they're definitely beatable in a one-off/two-legged game.
  15. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    The price people are putting on 'Louza changing things' is hilarious to me. Good player sure, but he has rarely ever been a game-changer for us. The problems run far deeper than just the injuries - we have lost a number of games this season when we have better 'names' than the opposition. Louza won't change much in that regard.

    The biggest hurdle we currently face is that we go into every game (bar *Norwich recently) without any kind of discernable game plan or tactical instruction at all. Bilic just sends 11 players out onto the pitch and hopes they will suddenly become a team.
    Chumlax and Lloyd like this.
  16. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    We absolutely will make the playoffs. But not this season
  17. BeersThen

    BeersThen First Year Pro

    No, I said 8th at start of the season and reckon I won't be far out.
  18. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    The Stoke match was a prime example of what Louza can give us. We were clinging on at 1-0. Enter Louza and he destroys them. We end up winning 4-0.

    He’s only played 2 full games and 3 subs. He scored 2 goals in that time.

    With him on the pitch it improves us massively. He’s the only player who can control the ball under pressure and pass it accurately all in one fluid movement.

    With Pedro and Araujo, they could cause havoc. All three are very intelligent footballers. Get all three on the pitch together and we’ll see a big difference.
  19. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Not debating that he's a good player - and obviously good players improve us.
    For every 'he improved us at Stoke' though, there is a 'we were getting bullied by Millwall even with him on the pitch'*

    But I think a lot of people are sticking their fingers in their ears and simply believing that we don't need Bilic to actually be doing a better job, and that returning players fixes all the issues.
    Louza doesn't mean Bilic suddenly learns how to impose an actual philosophy or that the other 10 players stop being mental midgets.

    *before his injury.
  20. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    No. We should never have let Bayo go
  21. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    How long was he on the pitch for at Millwall? Not sure how much can be gauged from that his time on the pitch that game, especially as Millwall are a big ********* team always likely to be our bogey team
  22. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    I think the other 5 in the top 6 will make the POs so I think we are one of about 4 chasing the last place. We are effectively 7th or 8th today given the teams below us have games in hand. On balance no I don’t think we will finish in the top 6.
  23. DaveWFC

    DaveWFC Five Star Man

    Can't see it. Mid table finish I reckon. Bilic doesn't have the tactical nous and the players don't have the minerals to finish in the play-offs, never mind win them.
  24. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    All of 18 minutes
  25. NathWFC

    NathWFC First Team

    Absolutely not.
  26. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    To be fair, Louza was only on the pitch against Millwall for 18 minutes, but that aside, Bilic gets a cut a lot of slack at the moment from me.

    If he can’t make it work when we have the majority of players back, including Louza, then that’s a different matter. Our midfield is dreadful and only Louza can make it even remotely functional. That will be the case no matter who is our head coach.

    Before the injuries, Bilic was showing great understanding. No one but him saw Gosling as a viable right back option. No one would have thought Gaspar could be able to play in midfield. No one considered switching Sarr and Sema over. For me, all these things worked.

    The injury crisis and chronic lack of quality on midfield has had a great impact.

    Bilic is more than capable of steering a club to promotion, but he needs the players to do it. Having 2/3’s of a side is not enough when you’re competing at the top end of the league.

    Gino has let him down but not providing that elusive midfielder. He should have done that. If it didn’t work after that, then yes, Bilic should be looked at.
    cyaninternetdog and Vic like this.
  27. HampshireHorn84

    HampshireHorn84 Academy Graduate

    No we'll finish about 10th. Teams below have game/s in hand (yes they have to win) but our lack of goal difference will also hamper us.
    IF we do scrape in, I imagine it'll be like the season we lost to Hull (?) and we'll be out by the end of the first semi
  28. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Happy to agree to disagree on this one.
  29. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Squad Player

    If we don't make the playoffs I will permanently leave this forum.

    We will, but whether we win them I do not yet know.
  30. hjw

    hjw Reservist

    I'm not as sure as i was a few weeks ago, the upcomming sheff utd & Burnley games will tell us a lot. Im talking performance as well as result
  31. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    We ain’t making the playoffs under Bilic.
    RS2 likes this.
  32. RS2

    RS2 Squad Player

    Only 4 defeats?? I make it 4 defeats in the next 4 games! Then we still have the scummers, Coventry and Sunderland away. I'll go for 6 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats.
  33. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Things I like about Bilic

    He doesn’t wait weeks to throw players on the pitch once they are ‘fit’ but not ‘match fit’ or if they have just signed. So if a good player is available he’ll generally use them. The more our better players become available the quicker they’ll play with him and good players do make a big difference.

    He does at least try and make us attacking.

    If we could somehow go 2 months with no major injuries to key players, then we could see a settled team, formation and tactics and at that point I’d say we are strong contenders for the play offs and even winning them.

    If we are some back, different ones injured then no I think we’ll stumble along and finish anywhere from 5th-10th and get beat in the semi finals if we have made them.
    hjw likes this.
  34. Stuey

    Stuey Reservist


    Bring back Will Hughes in the summer, plus one or two seasoned Championship players with room to improve and have a tilt at promotion next season.
    hornetmaster likes this.
  35. Ilkley

    Ilkley Formerly known as An Ilkley Orn Baht 'at

    Short answer: No.

    Long answer:

    Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ Accessed 15:00 5/2/23

    I have graphed the probabilities for each finishing position, as predicted by FiveThirtyEight:


    I would hope that we would do better than this with the return of various players, not least Louza and Pedro.
    I would also hope that our new signings will help us improve.
    But, we have an acute and chronic medical issue to contend with: a severe case of collective spinelessness.
    ETG76, a19tgg and RS2 like this.

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