Summerwolf 2022 - Chapter 5 'hearts And Minds'

That's a tough one. It's very hard to not go for someone named evil, as it clears up which message is which.

However, I really don't get why WAS was picked, as they seem far less evil than ashdon and tom.

I'd say that WAS and Ashdon/ Tom are unlikely to all be evil, based on this post:

 

Edited as i put the wrong post number -

Something that I set myself up for from yesterday - Post number 148 - https://wfcforums.com/index.php?threads/summerwolf-chapter-4-tabula-rasa.59471/page-5#post-3143639

If they did that, especially posting 2nd, then they could easily have named a random islander as evil
That would have got them an easy lynching tonight
3 more easy kills of people they know are good tonight
Which would leave 6 against 4 tomorrow. Basically they could have killed the game off tomorrow with no risk​

I only have myself to blame

 

Work has been much busier than I expected today so apologies.

That message isn't good reading for WAS, but I'm still suspicious of Tom for his overall gameplay. There's a lot to unpack from this morning's play and hopefully I'll have an opportunity to have a good read through this afternoon before coming to any conclusions.

 

People say I'm sitting on the fence, let's try and change that a bit. Not a single person named by the pirate has died (or been saved by the guardian). Two people named by the other messager(s) have died - CB lynched, WT killed. The wolves would surely have at least tried to kill someone named by the pirate if the pirate was the seer? That evidence points more towards the pirate being a wolf imo.

 

Based on me, expectedly saying I'm good, i now believe that there is a new seer and the messages changed yesterday, with the wolf posting as the pirate.

I think this means that known good are Cthulhu, Moog, Diamond & Harrow Orn

That means from the players still in the game 2 wolfs and possibly 1 traitor come from
MikeD, Ashdon, Tom, EBHornet, TonyCoton
So 3 of these 5 are in team evil

 

The wolf that killed WT didn't half sound like the one sending messages or am I just imagining a link there

 

The write up is by Opti, not by the wolf themselves. That is not a clue.

 

Ah OK cheers for clearing that up

 

And when WaS is shown to be good, then what?

 

'If.'

 

It isn't entirely beyond the realms of possibility that you are the Tinker, WAS, assuming CB was not the Tinker and was named by the alpha on day 2.

For what it's worth, I know you are saying you think Harrow is good, but going with your theory on patterns of messages to date, Harrow was viewed as a result of his association with Otter on day 1. I was also implicated there, and have since volunteered myself for viewing on day 3 (I think it was, when Dom was lynched). Obviously until I am viewed or killed in one way or another, I can only tell you I am good and try to logically make the right call from what we have so far.

I think the only way to move away from the assumptions is to try and do something that gives us more certainty around the messages.

 

We still have the manouvering room if we make a mistake today to win this. That's why I'm saying to go for the 5 un-named players, (and surprise surprise it's Warehouses turn to have a busy day at work today). Todays mistake of lynching WaS will mean tomorrow you MUST get it right. Do some research, it's all there in 4 days worth of information.

Nice swerve. If he's good then what?

 

OK, what if we kill Warehouse, or Tom, or Tony and they are shown to have been good? What then?

 

I 100% agree with all of these

If you were the wolf and all those points were cleared up, what would you do tomorrow ?

Would they keep with the pirate theme knowing they have been rumbled ? of course not. They will change course and change style.

As i said before I think that team good are Cthulhu, Moog, Diamond & Harrow Orn

I would think that at least two of these will go tonight as well, leaving 5 good against 3 evil

 

Surely Ashdon would be the play. Already raising the point that if WAS is found to be good it could be the tinker.

 

Tom actually made this point earlier, so I cannot take all the credit, as charming as you are being there.

 

Why do you say there are 3 evil? Only two wolves from this morning's write up. Do you know there's still a traitor?

 

It's a tough balancing act I agree, but there are enough of us here who have been named and know exactly what our status is. Lynching WaS will 100% give the wolves 2 kills tonight whereas going for a suspicious un-named and experienced player gives us, (in my view), a 50/50 chance of an evil kill and 1 less islander murdered this evening. The odds are slightly better not lynching him.

The only caveat is if the Alpha was bonkers enough to name themselves as evil. Can't see that happening.

 

What are you inferring?

 

Well yeah I'm good so I agree, what then?

 

From past games, a busy day at work is the no.1 go to excuse for evil to stay quiet. Just putting it out there.

 

If your theory about the messages is correct, why are Harrow and Warehouse not suspects to you? Or even WaS?

 

We knew two wolves knew each other before the weekend. But now we know the two last night hunted separately. Am I right in assuming Sklya knew the other wolf and vice versa?

 

On day 1 - 4 wolves attacked, but Otter was killed
On day 2,3 - 3 wolves attacked, which suggests Otter was a wolf
On day 4 - SkyaRose was lynched and only 2 wolves attacked
Suggesting the traitor hasn't been killed yet

 

Because my theory may be sh*t, but even then I wouldn't expect a wolf to risk outing an evil player.

 

If I wasn't named I would 100% agree with Cthulhu.
It would seem utter madness not to go with a named evil

The issue now is if you have 2 wolves tonight what damage could they do? What if we lose another seer? Or 3 good players by the morning

 

Right, but then the Wolf runs that risk with every message.