What’s the verdict for today then? Tories to get moderate reverse is mine. I don’t think we are at peak drubbing yet. I also doubt it’ll be a time for raging Labour triumphalism, in fact in may be disappointing. The Libs will make lots of gains thus prompting the usual over-optimistic assessments of GE chances that vapourise at the time. Tories to play this as a mild rebuke from the electorate and a reminder to get on with the job.
Guessing Labour mild to moderate gains, Lib Dems major gains (comparative to their recent non-entity status), Tories moderate losses.
I had 3 votes; one for a mate who's standing as a Green, one for Paolo Arrigo, who is the bloke who organises all the EU flags at the Proms, Liberal, and one for David Perry, long serving Labour councillor. I ******* hate Tories.
Rightly or wrongly there will be a lot of voting based on national issues rather than local matters. I also suspect there will be quite a bit of tactical voting, largely anti Tory in nature. The opposition parties will do well to remember that tomorrow and perhaps acknowledge it too.
Blimey. Wasn’t actually aware there were local elections. I never vote in them but think this is first time I didn’t even realise they were going on. Probably going soft up top.
No elections in Hertsmere as the council changed from election by thirds to all out. Interesting to see the citizens in Bristol have voted in a referendum to scrap the post of directly elected mayor. A reverse on a trend for the personalisation of mandates.
Pretty much as we all seemed to expect, a mixed night from which all the parties will be able to take something. Headline Labour gains in London and the South, but modest progress elsewhere, the Tories comfortably avoiding a rout. Gains for other parties as the electoral map continues to shift. The emotional investment in Brexit endures and will take a lot to shift it. Like a shed load of parties and a prolonged cost of living crisis. Labour continue to build, but haven’t seized the public imagination.
The best result for Labour and the other opposition parties, imho, is one that keeps Johnson in post for now. I think there is plenty of time for a replacement to turn it around for the Tories in the next 2 years. I think the public's opinion thar Johnson has a lack of integrity is irreversible now and is only going to get worse as the cost of living crisis bites and people get more angry. "Unfortunately" the Met Police fines and Sue Gray report, likely to be made public in the next few days, could be the final straw for Johnson.
I agree that Johnson in post will continue to eat away at Tory support, but his removal would be a catastrophe for the whole post Theresa May populist movement. It would be rudderless and Tory infighting endemic as each high profile individual gets skewered in turn through their association with Johnson. How would most of the cabinet survive without Johnson’s toleration of their incompetence? Turmoil. Can’t wait for it.
Yes, it will result in turmoil and there would be massive infighting, similar to the May hung parliament. But that would be much better for the opposition parties if it happened nearer to the GE imho. The Tories could easily afford 6 months+ of division and retribution within their parliamentary ranks now and still be in a position to offer a "united front" behind a new leader and a "new vision" by the GE. I don't think Johnson will lead the Tories into the next GE because I think he has become a electoral liability. But the nearer to the GE that the infighting and turmoil his leaving will cause the better for the opposition's chances imho.
I agree that scenario is better, but it won’t be one of our choosing (Tory MPs need to ditch him) so I’ll welcome it whenever. Whoever takes over inherits a cost of living crisis, failing Brexit and much more sleaze to emerge. They haven’t a hope of carrying the big lies forward.
True. I think the Tories will struggle to distance themselves from the blame for Brexit and the cost of living crisis. And the sleaze and lies of this administration. But they will try. And blaming Johnson once he's gone, just as they have demonised May now, will be their strategy, I'm sure of it. The "loyal" blue voters that failed to turn out yesterday will, I fear, lap it up.
I'm only surmising from the fact that, overall, the Conservative vote is down. Now some of those Tory voters might have switched but I suspect a large number just didn't vote because of national issues, as much as anything. They will be back for a GE if the national picture changes (e.g. Johnson gone) imho.
Bad news for Fabricant as Labour take Barnet. (and I will make no apologies for reposting in "What Made I Larf")
Tories doing worse than I expected, to be honest. It'd be interesting to see if that's down to depressed Tory voter turnout, or people switching to vote for someone else.
Very interesting results coming in from Northern Ireland where the assembly is being elected. Looks like Sinn Fein are going to be the largest party for the first time ever and big increase in vote share for the cross community Alliance party. When you factor in the SDLP and some of the other smaller parties, a clear majority of people in Northern Ireland have voted for parties that support the Northern Ireland protocol and the biggest losers are the DUP who have fought the campaign on scrapping it, and lost almost 7% of their vote share as a result. Just goes to show that the narrative that the Northern Irish people hate the protocol is completely wrong and far, far too much weight is given to the minority views of the DUP in the British media.
Although it's difficult not to find some satisfaction in the demise of the DUP, the Brexit fueled renewed division in the north of Ireland is not good news. Stormont is likely to remain suspended as the DUP will not engage with SF now SF are the largest party and are entitled to nominate the First Minister. The split over the protocol is likely to get worse despite, as you say, a clear majority of voters supporting parties that are in favour of it. There is a huge positive that the non-sectarian parties have increased their votes but the vast majority still vote on old sectarian lines. If Brexit had happened 20 years later I'm convinced that those old divisions would have all but ceased to have existed. As it is, I can't see the DUP/TUV backing down on the protocol so no NI Assembly for the foreseeable future. And I don't believe there is anywhere near a majority support for a united Ireland despite the success of SF on these elections. And even if there were, the significant and extreme unionist minority would, I fear, make any attempt at unification lead to a new period of internal conflict. It all goes back to Brexit. The vast vast majority of the people of NI were happy with the status the GFA brought them. The British could be British while the Irish could be Irish all whilst living within the same territory. The weakening of the unionists upsets the status quo and that is, imho, dangerous. This was the main reason I was so against Brexit.
There is a cross-community desire to keep the aspects of the GFA that allow for easy movement, trade and cultural exchange with the Republic. A minority only would exchange that for the dismantling of the protocol and most on either side want to simply get on with life.
Harrow - I notice that boundary changes meant the loss of 8 seats and the Tories gained 8 seats. Any of the locals care to comment on why this was the only Tory council gain?
There's been a lot of financial mismanagement in Harrow that probably swung people (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ouncil-repairs-scam-bob-blackman-b996315.html). My mum is usually a Tory voter but said she couldn't possible vote for them after the past few years but also didn't wanna vote Labour cos of the above.
Tory MP on AQ is actually using Harrow as an example that there were "....mixed messages from London...".
This mob currently in power should have been given an absolute shooing given the buffoonery shown . That the opposition only made modest in roads says to me that their finger still isnt on the pulse of the electorate and slurring potential voters is still not the way to go . How about you listen to concerns instead of telling the voter what should concern them ? . Just a thought. Anywho. The Greens/LibDems ? Enjoy your moment in the sun . It won't last .
Did not vote because I am currently in Camaguey, Cuba receiving my orders and conspiring against Britain etc. Wouldn't have bothered anyway. Tomorrow heading to Santiago de Cuba. Mango season here in full bloom. Mango, papaya and pineapple for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
