Brexit is still a ******* disaster. Trump is a ******* disaster. But I'm sure you'll be nicely insulated from it.
Good news on that front, at least - he can't. Bipartisan legislation literally just passed both chambers of Congress that prevents a POTUS from pulling out of NATO without either a two-thirds majority vote from the Senate, or a separately passed bill from Congress specifically for that purpose. Goes without saying that's just not going to happen, regardless of which way the House ends up going. The bill just needs Biden to sign it at this point, but there's no reason to expect that not to happen.
He could quiet quit though, right? Just not lift a finger or commit military resources? It'd be a treaty breach but in the event of war breaking there'd be no way (or really time) to enforce it.
I mean, any system can be rat-****ed if someone approaches it in bad faith, so no argument there. Disruption is far preferable to destruction though. In any event, given the bipartisan support for this bill I suspect the Repubs will quietly herd him into line if necessary, like they did when the Russian sanctions were forced through during his first term. For all the rhetoric from a vocal few, most Republicans really don't want out of NATO if push comes to shove.
By "interesting", do you mean "enormously damaging and sure to balloon prices for just about everything while killing no shortage of small businesses"? Because if so, yes, definitely "interesting".
I think the biggest factor in play here is Trump detests looking like a loser. He won't want to pick a fight (ie. leaving NATO) he can't win. And when push comes to shove I don't think he'll necessarily want Ukraine to fold on his watch either.
Yeah, I suspect you're right on that. If he knows ahead of time he can't unilaterally withdraw from NATO then he might completely lose interest... which is the ideal scenario.
Sadly, the people around him who this time will be pulling the strings won't. But ultimately the legislation will prevent them doing anything too damaging absent a war breaking out.
Yep. I suspect the sane Republicans in Congress saw the danger and acted early and quietly just in case. Rubio was the Repub co-sponsor, interestingly.
Hearing all the exit poll quotes about ‘things being so expensive now’ and ‘I can’t afford a new [insert expensive tech item here] like I could’ve in 2019’ reasons for people voting for Trump, maybe the whole import tariffs stuff will surprise a lot of misled people.
He's been mooted as a possible Secretary of State I see. They'll love how not cheap an iPhone becomes when it's mired in tariffs!
Yeeeeep. We are well past the "f*ck around" part, now onto the "find out" bit. Anecdotal and totally impossible to verify story already coming out about a bunch of workers in PA who just found out their bonuses won't happen this year because their employer now has to go and buy a years worth of product up front as a hedge against the anticipated upcoming tariffs. No way of verifying if this is true or not, of course, so take with a pinch of salt. But there will be no shortage of confirmed events like this if he goes ahead with his idea... and he probably will, because he has form for it. He nearly sunk US farming in his first term and had to bail them out to the tune of nearly $30 billion. That still wasn't enough to save all of them, and many, many farms folded.
This story is enlightening about how Trump really doesn't understand international trade. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...4-billion-off-of-harley-davidsons-market-cap/
I actually got to watch this fallout first hand, because Harley's corporate HQ is in Milwaukee and my previous employer manufactured OEM tech for their bikes. It wasn't pretty.
It will be interesting to see how your average MAGA reacts when Trump's ridiculous promises and disastrous economic plans trash the US economy....assuming he implements them. Ironically if he just does nothing there is every indication that the US economy will grow at 3%+ with low inflation for the next few years. He could just sit back and claim the credit. I suspect Trump will be one of the most unpopular Presidents of all time. He has made unachievable promises to his fanbase and they are bound to be angry when they realise how much worse off they are. I just feel sorry for those that didn't vote for him but will suffer the same fate.
@Arakel the NATO thing was passed as part of the NDAA last December. It's already law. I thought it rang a bell.
Ha, weird....must have been an old article circulating I didn't read the date on. I'll have to go back and double check. Good thing regardless of the date.
Can't verify the info, but it's a perfectly believable scenario for US manufacturing. My old employer has already taken steps to bulk order components and stockpile them ahead of the anticipated tariffs, because a good number are sourced from China. The pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a rethink for many manufacturing businesses, who got brutalized by lack of warehousing and a reliance on just in time supply delivery amidst worldwide component shortages. Difference there is they're a highly profitable company family owned business, so they can easily take the hit up front. Not true of all manufacturers, though. Many are only just getting by as is. Having experienced salary cuts and bonus removals in the US the moment a business takes an economic downturn, that part isn't remotely unlikely either. So is the anecdote ********? Could be. But there will 100% be many, many examples of it happening if the tariffs hit as advertised.
Actually I totally agree with you, but that article, written in such a way as this man and his colleagues have immediately lost their bonus because Trump was elected is just not true.
We know what will happen though. Just like Brexit, if it fails it's not because the idea was wrong, it's the fault of the people that doesn't believe in it. To succeed it needs to be MORE extreme
I won't. And I think he's odds on to do that given the excellent inheritance Biden's leaving him. The hard yards are all done. A high tide raises all boats and I think we could benefit if the US economy is doing very well.
I suppose the question is how much impact a strengthening dollar can have on mitigating the cost of trade. Certainly not enough if tariffs start at 20%. US companies aren’t going to catch up with TSMC for a few years at an absolute minimum (if ever), so every device with cutting edge tech should get significantly more expensive for his parliamentary term. Also, removing migrants will surely have a significant inflationary effect. But then fracking and flooding the market with fossil fuels could have a significant short term deflationary impact (albeit one which surely won’t please Elon).
Trump appoints Tom Homan, a big contributor to Project 2025 as his "border czar". So much for "never hearing of those guys" eh? Worrying times.
But, but, but... Project 2025 is just a wonky conservative think-tank called The Heritage Foundation, which has absolutely nothing to do with the Republican party.
Elon gets appointed as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Which so happens to spell out DOGE, which is the name of the meme cryptocurrency he's been peddling for years. Which so happens to be up 70% in the last 3 days alone (and a whopping 267% in the last 3 months). Completely normal and accepted. Baffling.