Christmas Werewolf - Day 1

Disappointing lack of tache there

 

Are mousers making a come back? That Jackson Irvine for Australia has a great/horrific tache depending on your point of view.

 

So... what's everyone thinking about today after Mike's update that inactives won't necessary be killed off?

Still inclined to choose one, if they forget to play then probably no great loss to the village and they'd be 50% likely to be killed off anyway by the coin toss.

If they both post before the end, then leaning towards picking a named player or someone that's pretty quiet as wolves tend to keep their heads down early doors.

 

Surely worthwhile going for them as they are likely normal villagers. Assuming they are both good, lynching one increases their probability of death from 50% to 100%, but then we wouldn't be removing a random villager (75% chance good). Net positive. And neither is the seer which is big.

 

Wowsers that is a dazzler

 

These numbers were slightly plucked out of thin air, so here are more concrete numbers:

Assuming both inactive players are good.

Lynch an inactive:
50% chance lose 1 good
50% change lose 2 good
Expected value - 1.5 good

Lynch a random:
(note 4/15 remaining players are evil)
36.67% chance lose 2 good
18.33% chance lose 3 good
18.33% chance lose 1 good
13.33% chance lose 1 good, 1 evil
6.67% chance lose 2 good, 1 evil
6.67% chance lose 1 evil
Expected value - 1.73 good, 0.27 good
There is obviously the chance of lynching the seer too.

 

Ooh stats in werewolf is a new development

 

Logic would be a surprising development on a day 1.

 

Agree. Not everyone that has been quiet will be a wolf but pretty sure there will be wolves hiding amongst the quieter players...

Unfortunately as the day has progressed, there are a lot of quiet players so the pool is quite large today!

 

Meant to be 0.27 evil of course!

 

That's some good stattage there Tom!

I agree the odds are better for us to take off one of the inactive. Toss a coin which one.

 

Oops! I totally forgot about this starting today!!

Appreciate the tag Miked! I’ll have a quick read through now to try and catch up.

 

And now all my stats go out of the window!

 

You mean you didn't save it in a spreadsheet and can't just update the values...?

 

And then there was one! Just Opti left to post.

 

Sounds like I haven’t missed a lot then.

Standard Day 1 with two players both named Good.

I like the statistical element though. OptaWerewolf…

 

Hi all very sorry! I completely forgot we started today. Will have a read to catch up!

 

Hmm well not a lot to go on then by the looks of it.

Sorry that I have taken away the plan for voting an inactive off! I completely forgot we were playing again.

 

a pleasure as always Skyla!

 

Less than two hours remaining

 

They can be if they totally forgot!

 

Yep. No idea what to do now. Suspect we'll panic and some poor innocent villager will be for the gallows on flimsy/non existent reasoning.

 

I used good old fashioned pen and paper!

 

It’s always difficult to not lynch a named player on the first day. You always have to feel sorry for someone named as good on the first day, as they are never long for this world.

Delving back through the records of wfcforums werewolf history I wonder who has the most first day eliminations?

 

great effort Tom!

 

Some stats:

If we lynch Tom he's either good or he'd bad. 50/50.

I'm annoyed that Asdome and Opti have both turned up as it would have been a comfortable cop out to vote for one of them.

I'm gonna vote off a comple random and hope I hit gold. Literally no point in overthinking it at this point.