Budget 2024

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by hornmeister, Sep 13, 2024.

  1. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    What's more laughable is the OBR's record of predictions more than a few months ahead is spotty at best. So what weight should anyone put on whatever they're saying about something 50 year from now?
     
  2. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    No because it pays no attention to the change in behaviour it will cause. Everyone will try and spend as much as they can before they die to get the free £120k. No incentive to save and the state will be saddled with supporting every pensioner being penniless.
    The government will have to shell out this £120K and have collected nothing for it.
    It's just about the most economically illiterate idea I've ever heard.

    The best thing to do is to incentivize people to work hard to pay a reasonable amount of tax to support those unable to support themselves ans to save so they can support themselves without state intervention into retirement.
    Left over privately funded pensions should transfer as pensions to beneficiaries, the income from which should be taxable.
     
  3. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    And mostly they seem to base their predictions upon current conditions alone with no real attempt to build in possible seascape changes caused by particular policies.
     
  4. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I'm not condoning Clive's idea, but in the scenario you described the government would have collected an awful lot of tax from people spending everything they had before dying. Sales taxes, income taxes for business, etc.

    I suspect the economic aspects would prove to be quite complicated to calculate the impact of.
     
    hornmeister and lm_wfc like this.
  5. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I somehow missed the non-dom changes until this morning.

    Job's a good'un.
     
  6. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Fair point, although these are the types that might have retired abroad or might spend it on a holiday. It's just too complicated to mitigate as you suggest.

    In a time when less than 50% of the adult population are actually net contributors I don't think bunging out lump sums regardless of need is a great idea. Especially as it's a sum likely to be used for house purchases, with a constricted supply, it'll likely just inflate housing prices more.
    I really am for minimal interference from the state in financial affairs. Been in the business 15 years and there's not much they haven't ****ed up. The more analysis I see from this budget the more I think it's pretty bad for the squeezed middle. Just take the tax that's needed from earnings and spendings. This minimizes the loopholes and makes the collection more efficient.
     
  7. AndrewH63

    AndrewH63 Reservist

    Income tax and VAT are the ways to raise decent sums without too many adverse impacts. Not raising the thresholds has been a stealth income tax. The government really made a gross error not challenging the dying governments cuts in employee National Insurance. Going into the General Election saying that they would restore NI back to the 2022 level, would have given the markets the signal they need. Plus it was easy to defend using think tanks like the IFS to say the cuts were unsustainable.

    removing exemptions on VAT would raise money and simplify the tax system.
     
  8. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    VAT affects poorer people more than richer people. I'm not against the basic rate of tax increasing to 22% in return of lowering VAT to 17.5% or 15%, somewhere it would balance out.
     
    hornmeister likes this.
  9. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    ...and a reduction in VAT may also get people spending boosting the economy.

    Scrap NI & council tax. Set the basic rate of income tax at say 25% from £20K and 40% from £100K. Based on all income earned and unearned.

    Simple to administer difficult to avoid.
     
  10. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    But council tax is a local tax. There would need to be some hypothecation from central funds. It would also need to be determined whether it was a flat rate or variable according to local needs.
     
    hornmeister and Steve Leo Beleck like this.
  11. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Why is it a local tax though? You've got 300 odd local authorities in England all duplicating administration (or lack of it from what I have experienced) of services. God help you if you live on the border of two, require the heath services of both but the two don't talk to each other.

    Councils will have a cost based on their population and geography. This should be calculated and funded from central taxation. Their costs are already accounted for so it's not a difficult task to arrange. Far more efficient and fairer. Just cover the council tax take with a percentage increase in income tax. Same with NI.
     
  12. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Well, I guess one reason is that having it as a local tax makes it harder for the centre to take the money away?
     
  13. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    True but we can't organise our tax system around keeping the government or councils for that matter in check. We deserve a government and council that spends fairly and efficiently. We certainly don't want councils looking to spank whatever is left at the end of the financial year in fear that their budget will be cut for the next if they don't.
     
  14. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    It’s not really about keeping them in check: in fact the opposite - it’s about allowing them a degree of autonomy. If we think local democracy is a good thing, we wouldn’t want central government to totally control the purse strings.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2024
  15. leighton buzzard horn

    leighton buzzard horn Squad Player

    Restaurants are suffering because quality is going down drastically whilst prices are going up. Part of that is being inflicted upon them but part of it is greed as well in my experience.

    A few times a month we would go out (family of three) for a lazy dinner out and it would cost £50-£60 and be a half decent midweek meal. Now it feels like that has gone up to closer to £80 and what is being served up is really low quality, so I just don't bother. If I go out for dinner with my family now I prefer to go less frequently but spend more money for better quality. Our last meal out was closer to £150 and was very good. I'd rather a £150 meal where I feel satisfied rather than an £80 meal where I feel ripped off.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  16. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    I agree but I do have some sympathy for restaurant owners.

    Over the last few years they have had to consider 3 choices. Reduce portions, reduced quality or increase price (or a combination of all 3).

    Unfortunately, especially at the lower end, many of the restaurant's clientele have a low price point expectation and will just not go much above it.

    It's reduce portion size and/or quality to limit price increases or go bust for many of them at the moment.
     
  17. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I attended a seminar last week, where Kate Nicholls, the CEO of UK hospitality spoke.

    Really really informative. As she said the hospitality industry is disproportionately low waged, shorter hours employment. There are a lot of second income earners, single parents and careers (now supported by the higher level of income that they can earn before they lose their careers allowance).

    For most pubs, restaurants and hospitality outlets staff is their highest cost outside of the food/drink product its self. Kate estimates that the impact on the industry is £3bn - directly out of the industry and straight to the government.
    https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/ukhospitality-responds-to-the-budget-3/

    UK hospitality are expecting that the industry will have to take £6 for every £1 that they are going to lose, so they have to increase by £18bn just to stand still.

    There are real fears that the hospitality industry are going to have to cut jobs and reduce hours one the new ENIC kicks in
    https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/uk...closures-job-losses-and-cancelled-investment/
    https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/bu...-time-employment-by-at-least-2500-per-person/

    Our take aways, coffees, pub drinks and foods and eat outs are all going to cost more after April
     
  18. leighton buzzard horn

    leighton buzzard horn Squad Player

    Yes I also sympathise with some of them. In my experience most places have opted to choose all three of the options you have mentioned but been too aggressive with it.

    I recall a few years ago, not long out of Covid, I was in Devon and had an hour to kill before dinner. We went to a pub and thought we would have a few drinks. I bought a pint of local ale, a small glass of wine and a little bottle of diet coke. It cost me somewhere in the region of £25/£30 and when I questioned it the landlord said "we are making up what we lost out on in Covid". I'd have happily sat there and killed an hour before dinner by spending £50/£60 if he wasn't ripping me off. As it was we nursed that one drink and then left.

    Too many places now want to take you for as much money as possible on your visit rather than take good & fair money and encourage a repeat visit. They'd rather have £100 out of your pocket once rather than a £60 experience that you keep coming back for again and again.

    Economically it is hard in that trade, but greed and short sightedness is making it harder.
     
    Ghost of Barry Endean likes this.
  19. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    I haven't noticed any of this. Perhaps you have just been unlucky?
     
  20. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Add to this point far too many chains with formulaic dull food. It is worth seeking out the family run Italian with daily specials even if you have to pay a bit more.
     
  21. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Food has been far too cheap for too long. I welcome the price increases in restaurants and supermarkets. Perhaps it might cut back on the obscene amount of food that we waste
     
  22. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    That’s hardly breaking news, though: it’s always been the case.
     
  23. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    I dunno - chains seem to be an epidemic now. Every high street looks identical. Admittedly happened a decade ago.
     
    CarlosKickaballs and dynamo380 like this.
  24. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Well yes, if you mean that chains have taken over - I agree. My point was more about the perpetual crapness of their offerings. I am old enough to remember Berni Inns and Harvesters.
     
  25. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Controversially you couldn’t beat scampi or BBQ wings harvester snacks. Quite enjoyed the chaotic salad bar as well. Knocks spots of Prezzo or Ask anyway
     
    Keighley likes this.
  26. CarlosKickaballs

    CarlosKickaballs Forum Picarso

    A motorway trip without a greasy breakfast and some tinned fruit on pancakes from Little Chef is no longer worth making
     
  27. AndrewH63

    AndrewH63 Reservist

    Basic rate of tax is 20% and NI at the lowest level is 10% so income tax would need to be 30%. VAT is a very simple tax to collect. Almost impossible to avoid as a UK citizen. Jobs for cash can be eliminated by making the VAT registration threshold the same as the income tax allowance (£12K). You can make VAT easier to administer by scrapping all exemptions and lowering it say 15%.

    The poor are hit disproportionally hard by income tax when they cross the threshold. Consumption taxes like duty on tobacco also hits the poor harder. The counter argument is that consumption involves choices.

    Council tax is very regressive. Hits lower middle income households disproportionately. Really it should be scrapped and replaced by a land value tax. With sufficient transition periods and reliefs. It can’t be right that a Band D council tax bill in some of the poorest parts of England is higher than a Band H in Westminster.

    If you want to counter the impact of consumption taxes on the poor you use the benefits system to increase their income.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2024
    lm_wfc likes this.
  28. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    How would that apply to renters?
     
  29. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    My 8yo daughter is old enough to remember Harvesters given there's still loads of them...? Salad bar and all...
     
  30. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Are there? Well there you go. Don’t seem to be any around here. I thought they’d been replaced by those Hungry Horse places.
     
  31. CYHSYF

    CYHSYF Academy Graduate

    Windmill in Bushey Heath is still a Harvester, and there appears to be one in Bristol at Snuff Mill so maybe they have a thing about Mills...
     
  32. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    This is what happened to the Harvester in Littlehampton last year:

    2048-1365-c8af40e7-4aee-48d9-b247-7a83c16176d8.jpg

    So that's one less to worry about :(
     
  33. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Ah, right: we don’t generally go out that way.
     
  34. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    That's a perfect example of why local property based taxation isn't always fair. Westminster makes it's money from things like parking and proprty. It means that it's very rich residents get their services paid for by other people.

    Far better to tax people according to their ability to pay. A percentage of their earnings and a percentage of their spendings. Not by arbitrarily assessing how rich you think they are by looking at what they own or have saved through already taxed income and penalising them for doing so.
     
  35. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    But wouldn’t the consequence of that be that affluent areas, where there are more people who are able to pay, generate more in tax income than poorer ones? Which is really the wrong way around.

    I think you are only looking at this from the perspective of the taxpayer, rather than on what the taxes are used for.

    Its, incidentally. ;)
     
    Ghost of Barry Endean likes this.

Share This Page