I haven't heard about that one! Ha ha! I'll have to wait until her ladyship has gone to bed before I start googling 'Russian sex party' though
Instead we can look forward to more of the undoubted paragons that are Priti Patel and Nadine Dorries.
Hmmmmm.... De Pfeffel's popularity figures haven't moved from what they were on Thursday/Friday before the latest partygate allegations this weekend: Although the poll of polls suggesting a 9% lead for labour...
It may well be that Johnson's approval rating has hit the floor. Based on the vox pops and Twitter, there will always be a percentage of people that will regard him as a "lovable rogue" and it looks like it could be around 30%. I think it's also a case of "partygate" saturation. If you still think Johnson is the man to lead the country after last week's PMQs then I doubt the subsequent "revelations of other "events" is going to sway your opinion of him.
Newsnight had a steely eyed woman on last night representing the Conservative membership and she was clear, they don’t want Boris to go. Neither lies nor Parliamentary Standards have meaning to the members. They want to win. They want the Navy in Channel and the BBC ground into dust. Now! This raises the prospect of Boris being immovable in the short term, but also the juiciest Tory civil war if the Pork Pie conspirators try it.
Tory MPs have always been more powerful than the members, though. See Thatcher, Major, May etc. Boris’s own preferences come into play here too.
Something I do find interesting (although I'm hampered by lack of good numerical data) is that many of the 2019 intake of Tory MP's are involved in, or at least sympathetic to, the "Pork Pie Plot" (FFS!!!). I'd expect C4 to be all over this.
It’s quite possible that a leadership election takes place and Boris wins. The members will put him on the slate and maybe more than half the MPs will vote for him, unless the Gray report is unequivocal.
I do love the on-brand evolution that has lead us from Cameron's rumoured pig's head all the way to pork pies in the last decade. Great stuff.
Increasingly descending through cheaper cuts of pork. The Tories have left this Country in an offal state.
Not quite how it works. If he wins the vote of no confidence, he can stay unchallenged for a year. If he loses it, he's not allowed to stand in subsequent leadership election. MPs whittle it down to two, only then do members vote.
Hadn’t quite grasped that. I can certainly see him winning a ‘no confidence’ vote. While that would strengthen him in the short term voters would see him as being unpunished.
Looks like 32% is the floor of Tory support. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Obviously positive for Labour but I think that 32% is also positive for the Conservatives. It's difficult to think of a time when the Government and PM have had worse PR disasters than the current lot have had over the last few weeks. Yet still 1 in 3 would vote for them. It all comes down to whether they can win the 10% or so back with a new leader and a "relaunch" of the brand. I suspect they will and it will be before the next election.
I don’t think Labour and the Tories are necessarily fighting over the same voters. Labour’s target are its own third and those liberals who wouldn’t vote for them last time. There may be a drift back in the former Red Wall, but not a landslide. The Tories are in an odd place now. They need Johnson for the new seats, but Starmer will be increasingly more popular than him elsewhere and other Tories, unhappy with the behaviour, may tactically vote Lib Dem if he stays. As it stands, the Tories are staring at a defeat, even if Labour doesn’t hold above 40%.
I'm sure I heard the consensus is the Tories are losing voters but they're not switching allegiance to Labour. They're basically disappearing into apathy and so @sydney_horn is likely right that a change of leader and a brand relaunch would win a sizeable chunk of them back.
This is the line put around by Matthew Goodwin and it’s hardly a new one. The phenomena of the ‘shy Tory’ (I mean who wouldn’t be embarrassed?) is well known. But these polls force a choice. This one adds up to 93% without the main parties in the devolved nations. So if the SNP takes 3/4% alone, they don’t give much room for apathetic Tories. They are, therefore, saying which way they would fall today, even if they may change their minds. This notion of ‘apathy’ is wish fulfilment that only Tory red meat sustains them. I am very sceptical that a Tory rebrand is possible. Johnson’s Government already set itself against old Toryism and Austerity. A rebrand would need an ideological third way. If that way is simply competent Government delivering Brexit, then I give you the wreckage left behind, ministers who are either National jokes or mired in the same sleaze or routed old Tories. This is why so many don’t want to ditch Johnson. He is their winner. Except it seems he is not any more and that will mean the Tories are finished. Unless…Labour can pull something disastrous out of the bag and they do have form for it.
Well C4 announced it: https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-red-wall-voters-turn-against-tories-poll-suggests But for some reason they're not allowing access to the full report (Jan 2022): https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall
Anyone got an update on how polling is going? I imagine it is going very badly for the Conservatives. Would love someone to do an update
The unconvincing use of the words “poll suggests”, coming from Channel 4 are as hilarious as they are informative about the confidence placed in this poll. Indeed, I would go as far as to say that their use suggest this article is comical.
Interesting poll from Opinium that gives Labour a slight lead on "Running the economy": What ever the causes of the cost of living crisis, I think that this could be an early indication that a significant % the general public will blame the government.
Interesting split in this poll. Don't forget Macron is a right of centre former banker....the ground the Conservative party normally aspire to occupy....
If you want to know the current GE poll prediction for the proposed new 2023 constituencies, this is a good resource: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html It also gives some interesting demographic data for each area too.
The first post in this thread was only 10 months ago. Since then we have had Owen Patterson, Partygate, Tractorgate, Pincher and the Tory leadership election. I wonder how much more damage the Tories can do to themselves before the GE?
