April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 2

They saw each other this morning?

Am I going mad in here or what

 

My understanding was that Beta tried to kill Alpha so knows who Alpha is. Alpha was sleeping so isn't aware of who Beta is.

 

Okay I’m with you, the secondary wolf and the traitor know who the main wolf is.

And the main wolf sends the messages so he could be potentially playing it safe as to not accidentally name his beta.


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It’s hard to interpret Squibba’s play sometimes. He makes statements that really make me wonder if he is a traitor, but then others that make me thing that even a traitor wouldn’t be that overt in their attempts to create confusion.

Despite being quiet yesterday and this morning, he has been very vocal this afternoon. Is he trying to steer conversation away from himself?

It’s a tough one as none of those named so far strike me as being evil from what they have said. I also don’t believe Nisman was the tinker, law of probability backs that up. That would potentially clear bigrosslittleross if the seer had not been such a plank yesterday.

 

Well that's the question eh?!

Aside from a randomer, all we have to go on are the messages and/or suspicious posts.

Am I right in thinking the 3 named good and Squibba are the only ones we have any kind of information or disinformation about? Else it's a totally random lynching.

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They thought that in the last game, they were wrong too.

I process things best thinking "out loud" and looking at all the possible situations and scenarios so I can come to my own conclusion.

I am still struggling to come to my own conclusion thus far lol.

 

There's no information on me at all, just me being asleep then waking up and being vocal.

If that's the game we're playing I also call out MikeD who was very vocal in our game a week ago now is quiet yet online.

It's stupid to do so really, we have three named players from messages and I think we need to deduce from that who to vote for.

 

You're struggling to come to your own conclusions but are pretty vocal and sure about who to lynch.

You're also playing a bit dumb on the rules where I'm sure you know them well enough.

 

Not really sure am I Horace? I'm suggesting that someone who's been named twice in messages is probably a reasonable place to start. I can't say anything for sure as we don't know anything do we, that's the game.

 

I think on the balance of probabilities, the Wolf named Nisman evil and got us to Lynch a good player, rather than the Seer happened to be really unlucky and view the Tinker.

That's my logic for choosing which message I believe is which. Not that HG being named as good by the wolf would really mean anything significant at this stage.

 

My suspicions, ignoring the messages and based on thread behaviour:

Norn
Squibba
Miked
Gags

These are the people I feel have been most guilty of either misdirection or sewing confusion.

 

I'd add SLB to that list of my suspects too.

 

Here's a theory, with little evidence.

SLB is Traitor.
Hornetgags is Alpha
Squibba is Beta

SLB has led the charge to everyone to believe the message naming Gags as good is from the Seer. He also advised us not to rush to Lynch Squibba, trying maybe to buy time for his evil comrade.
Maybe Gags was bold enough to name himself as good on day 2.
Gags doesn't know Squibba is beta, so voted for him out of hand, thinking it would keep the heat off him.

I'll admit, it's wafer thin, but there you have it. Feel free to destroy, contradict.

 

I think lynching a non named player is a bad idea because we'll still definitely be in a confused state tomorrow even before the messages. I'm suspicious of those who are disregarding that fact.

 

It was 8 minutes today.

 

I'm only suspicious of Gags because he has gung ho voted for Squibba out of the blue and I'm fitting a theory around that.

As I say, I'm posting that theory with a confidence level of about 3%

 

Gags voting early would be my only concern as draws attention to himself. Doesn't seem like an evil move, or one of a very ballsy wolf, especially if they named themselves in a message as well!

 

Indeed, but this is Gags' 2nd game I think? Maybe he is trying some obvious moves? the other game was over so quickly he might not have seen how such obvious plays would be rumbled.

Also, I'm interested in the people who are more experienced who are posting obvious mistakes in the thread, eg. around roles or the rules. I admit I don't always read everything in detail, but some of the confusion over the role of the traitor, for instance, was basic stuff and seemed deliberate confusion.

 

If we had to name a named player, then I agree with moog that hornetgags' behaviour has been the most odd.

I'm also still willing to vote for Squibba though.

 

I'm worried, I was going with Squibba and Moog has swayed me off quite well!!!

 

Nope, my original vote was going to be Lowerrous.

Squibba joined late, then threw confusion all over the place, then said he would push for me tomorrow.

I've been named good, I know I am so my conclusion is today's message is from the Seer.

 

Moog who are you voting for then chief?

 

so you voted for Squibba simply because he suggested he would vote for you tomorrow?

 

I agree on this. Looks like it's Gags for me, also it's a 50/50 shot. Whereas with brlr or Horace, it's less than that.

 

How did you figure that?

 

Well if it helps, I've just emailed diamond that I'm withdrawing.

Something's come up.